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It’s from cpc think it’s all. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

MJO 7 is a transition phase which is usually a precursor to our biggest storms (but not always of course).

Retirement gives you the wait option. Back in the day would have used the edge of your coffee cup.

torching here today-feels tropical after the cold-made it to 47

Your elevation FTW

What's the most snow you've used it in?

Stayed icy and foggy all day 31.9 https://imgur.com/a/VnEJbBE

Up to 33 here, didn't have a ice scraper so I had to wait for the temp to rise to get the ice off the windshield.

Well, its either 36 hours or 36 seconds.

One thing to keep an eye on is the MJO, which has been in the null phase for most of the last few weeks (not a major influencer). Models are forecasting it to finally strengthen, with most sending it solidly into Phase 6 later next week (esp GEFS). Euro guidance was more toward the border of Phase 6/7. Phase 6 is more often than not one of the eastern US torch phases with a high degree of corellation. Given some lag time this would generally suggest another warm period coming at some point possibly late month. Ensembles are definitely NOT showing much signs of that today temp-wise in the D10-15 range. So this will all be interesting to watch evolve. EPO/WPO are forecast to go pretty negative in that 10-15 day range along with a -AO/NAO. One of the few more recent examples of it not mattering much being in the warm phases was 2014 and 2015, and the main drivers of the cold those winters were in fact a persistently strong negative EPO/WPO.

Nina's IIRC

Is that for Niñas in particular or for all Enso states?

Eh, last couple snow events ended up about where the models were showing 24 hours out. At least here. In early December I actually got an inch or two more than was expected. Most are still showing 1-4" for Denver metro as of now, so I think that's a pretty good bet.

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Yup. From a WPC met. A glimmer of hope?

Yes me too. It's going to happen the day after Sydney Sweeney knocks on my door and says she wants to have a threesome with me and my wife. If I had to choose though I'd take the 36 inches in 36 hours.

8-1-2 7 isn’t great

Ahh. That's arguably worse for those areas which I cant image have more than a handful of snowplows!

Isn't 8 to 1 to 2 the perfect progression in our area? Or is it 7 to 8 to 1?

picked up a quick 0.5" out here

Good news, both ens and op models are pushing MJO into 7 by the 20th to 22nd. That will help us later in the month into Feb.

it will correct north about 40 miles before game time. Dont worry

33.2° -SHSN Finally some melting

thats not true...it says 0.3. Thats a dusting