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Another longer range modeling underestimation of the Southeast Ridge which has been a frequent occurrence last decade.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ010&warncounty=NJC035&firewxzone=NJZ010&local_place1=Belle Mead NJ&product1=Heat+Advisory&lat=40.465&lon=-74.6456 There is a heat advisory thru 8pm Wednesday

Despite a cool start, August will likely be warmer than normal overall. There will be additional opportunities for 90+ heat especially after the 10th.

76 degrees with 100% humidity this morning. Swampy.

No thread from me on Tue-Fri til the last minute (Tue morning?). GFS MOS seems a little cool on the maxes Tue and Wed and too low on chance of rain Thu, maybe Fri too. GEFS coming up on qpf now... all ensembles under 2.5" but the EC OP Max #'s are interesting the past two cycles (isolated over 7" location-location?)

7 inches for Ditty.

925 winds are briefly NE this morning hence the low clouds backing in from the NE. So definitely cooler on the coast vs 128-495.

The only weather office along the entire eastern seaboard from New Hampshire to Florida without heat advisories/warnings is LWX. We’re used to suffering so our criteria is too high.

It was just last week where peeps were saying big heat was done for the year

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CoCoRaHs totals will be added sometime late this morning.

Very strong La Niña background state continuing with the record July heat and Southeast Ridge. So a continuation of these record subtropical ridges. The models have frequently been underestimating the heat and ridging in the East.

They are kind of quiet this morning. 67 for the low.

Ken will be referencing runway 090 for Logan today when back bay is 92.

Euro with a sultan signal on the 00z run for later Thursday into Friday. Decent EPS signal too.

I don't. I try to call BS when I think they are wrong, as I did last year when they bailed on cool ENSO. I am confident they are too meager with it yet again.

I default to CPC...obviously if the data I am using is ultimately incorrect, then that changes things.

100 mph or bust

Get driving wiz. I'm sure they have McDonald's in Sioux falls.

It's been brutal out there. Corn sweat adds to it at least in Indiana. I have a friend who lives there. Been pretty much 80° dew points since last week.

.27” yesterday. First half of July was great, second half is less than an inch (pending Thursday).

The 0z Euro has the strongest offshore flow on Tuesday with 100° potential to JFK and Suffolk with compressional warming just north of the sea breeze front stalled near the beaches to Sunrise Highway.

With all the heat and high dewpoints, no mention of a heat advisory?

Euro AI with a cane into the Carolinas at 0z

Moderate risk on new Day 1