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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
bristolri_wx replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
You do realize that NOAA/NWS has always had geographic differences for criteria of advisories, watches and warnings of all different types? There are differing criteria for cold temperatures, frost/freeze, snow, etc as well. Here you are 100% correct in stating facts about temps in those other locations yet 100% wrong in your assessment as to why they did not receive advisories and we did... EDIT: Looks like several others have also brought up this point. -
I play there when I'm up in York, I like the course. It is hard.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Typhoon Tip replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
https://www.instagram.com/p/DLUx33htNZZ/?igsh=MTl4ZGNqbHV4NGsxbw== -
It's the worst weather disaster we've had in MANY years, flooding can be really deadly. Sometimes I wish that they would just dam up rivers that are prone to this kind of flooding.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
LibertyBell replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Looks like Tuesday might be our next shot at widespread 90 degrees, Tony?? -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
LibertyBell replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
wow that sounds much like our March 2010 noreaster when we had 80 mph winds!! -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
LibertyBell replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Do you think it will be like last Thursday was?? -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
psv88 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
87 -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
mreaves replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
They’ll also have snow advisories when we don’t. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
lee59 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Newark an outlier. However it is in the hottest part of our region. -
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 ...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR SEVERITY AND INCREASED IN DURATION FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH CAROLINA... HAW RIVER AT HAW RIVER AFFECTING ALAMANCE COUNTY. 250707T1727Z.NO/ 1042 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 ..FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING * WHAT...MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * WHERE...HAW RIVER AT HAW RIVER. * WHEN...UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...AT 18.0 FEET, MINOR FLOODING BEGINS. OVERFLOW BEGINS ON BOTH BANKS AT THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT. AT 20.0 FEET, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT OVERFLOW ON THE RIGHT BANK OPPOSITE THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT. WATER ALSO REACHES THE RED SLIDE PARK UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN ST. BRIDGE. AT 23.0 FEET, MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS. FLOODING REACHES THE BASE OF THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT BUILDING. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF THE RED SLIDE PARK UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN ST. BRIDGE, AND LANG ST WILL BE IMPASSABLE AT 25.5 FEET, THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT BUILDING FLOODS. AT 26.0 FEET, TRAILER HOMES ADJACENT TO THE RIVER AND THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT FLOOD. EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY. AT 27.0 FEET, MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS. THE TOWN OF HAW RIVER BEGINS TO FLOOD. AT 28.0 FEET, FLOOD WATERS REACH THE BOTTOM OF THE BRIDGE ACROSS I40. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 9:45 PM EDT SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.5 FEET. - FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO A CREST OF 27.5 FEET JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. - FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. - FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 26.3 FEET ON 09/17/2018. - HTTP://www.weather.gov/SAFETY/FLOOD FLD OBSERVED FORECASTS (8 PM EDT) LOCATION STG STG DAY/TIME MON TUE WED THU HAW RIVER HAW RIVE 18.0 25.5 SUN 9 PM EDT 14.0 10.6 8.4 6.0
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
HoarfrostHubb replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Per NWS Each National Weather Service Forecast Office issues some or all of the following heat-related products as conditions warrant. NWS local offices often collaborate with local partners to determine when an alert should be issued for a local area. For instance, residents of Florida are much more prepared for 90°F+ weather than residents in Alaska. -
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1032 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 200 AM EDT. * AT 1032 PM EDT, WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF ORANGE, ALAMANCE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE AREA WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES HAVE OCCURRED THIS EVENING AND SOME HOMES FLOODED. PLEASE DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, HILLSBOROUGH, PITTSBORO, SILER CITY, CARRBORO, MEBANE, GOLDSTON, ELON, GIBSONVILLE, LIBERTY, HAW RIVER, RAMSEUR, FRANKLINVILLE, SWEPSONVILLE, ALAMANCE, STALEY AND SUTPHIN.
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Some places west of Raleigh have seen nearly 1 foot of rain! Forecast was for amounts of 1-4” with isolated totals of 6”. Per RadarScope I’m seeing widespread 5+” totals with several areas more than double that.
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Considering what it’s doing to the polar Arctic region up there… I don’t think it’s a hell of a lot better
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Highs: EWR: 95 TEB: 91 LGA: 90 New Brnswck: 90 PHL: 90 TTN: 88 NYC: 87 JFK: 86 BLM: 86 ACY: 86 ISP: 85
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
SACRUS replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Highs: EWR: 95 TEB: 91 LGA: 90 New Brnswck: 90 PHL: 90 TTN: 88 NYC: 87 JFK: 86 BLM: 86 ACY: 86 ISP: 85 -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
kdxken replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I think they actually base it off anomalies. Average temperature in Indianapolis is higher than Boston hence... -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
TheClimateChanger replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
More misleading nonsense. Regarding the Tokyo data, you know something’s up when there’s a graph from Tony Heller’s wife limited to 1994-2021. You can pull up the raw data for Tokyo from JMA. There is, in fact, an inhomogeneity flagged in December 2014, consistent with the inflection point in this small subset of data. So the bias correction appears to be correct. Moreover, the long-term trend is actually greatly reduced by the UHI correction. That’s why nothing before 1994 is shown there. Further, the two warmest years in the raw data are the last two years (even without correcting for the change that occurred in 2014). 2025 appears well on its way to approaching those highs. Feel free to look for yourself: https://www.data.jma.go.jp/stats/data/en/index.html -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Typhoon Tip replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Yeah, anyway this is like standard summer heat today… It wasn’t out of control If that’s what people’s point is, I don’t have problem with that. So the reason why the heat index is the same here as it is and Atlanta Georgia or Florida Dallas or whatever, yet no advisory, is because of acclamation bias, which is a very real legitimate concern - has to be factored into pulling headline triggers. Ex, Virginia Beach gets a winter storm warning and a town shut down for four days over 3 inches of snow -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
kdxken replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Prolly not this week. Brrrrr.. "on Thurs but this could change as model guidance irons things out going forward. Finally, temperatures will fall quite a bit by Thursday and Friday with an easterly onshore flow developing. Ensemble guidance shows surface temperature anomalies falling to between 5 and 10 degrees below climatology Thursday afternoon -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
HoarfrostHubb replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
What a treat to have a 3 day holiday weekend without rain. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
kdxken replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I'm actually laughing out loud. That's how wars get started