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Yes, that part of his post doesn't make much sense. I have no idea why the west warm pool is all of a sudden going to become prohibitive to +TNH...it never has been. He also says we will need a SSW to avoid an early end to winter....probably true, but if you look at the east-leaning cool ENSO/strong easterly QBO/high solar data set, it would be very surprising if we didn't one.

Whiteout conditions. Awesome.

Hail Mary here would be to get 1" via the sagging inverted trough on Christmas Eve.

Will Central Park measure .1" of snow? They'll probably clock in with .08".

Gfs

This is exatly why I am saying that you don't use them to forecast.....consider them as either confirmation or a a voice of dissent. IDC what the weeklies do, or how much they waffle.....my money has been on a pretty strong PV throughout a good portion of January since last fall.

4 of the top 5 record highs on Christmas in Asheville are in the past 10 years.....

You don’t even really need a map for the forecast: Coating to an inch: S/E I-95 1-3”: N/W of I-95 to I-90 2-4” I-90 N to NH/VT/ME Mountains 3-5”+ NNE mountains Probably won’t be model agreement until tomorrow, as again northern stream energy is windshield wipered on the models every time a reindeer farts in the wind. It might snow near Christmas. Expect disappointment and be pleasantly surprised if it does. Happy holidays!

Gfs

FFC is forecasting 4 days of 70s highs in ATL: 12/24-7 with 12/28 in the mid 60s. As has been said, the 4 days of 70+ in late Dec would be pretty historic although not as high as a few years that had 5-6 days of 70+ in late Dec.

.30" snow in Allentown with that juggernaut

I do not have an issue with the idea of what RONI is to show, which is the impact we have seen from a warming world in response of increases with CO2 and others. My issue is say we get to a point where there is such a difference that is large enough to become an error in a way. An example would be if ONI reads -.5 but RONI reads it as moderate event so < -1 creating a difference of nearly 0.5 or more do we believe the RONI value to be more representative of the atmosphere or do we believe ONI has a better handle? I guess this is the million dollar question of course. I mean they even mention it towards the end themselvesThe cyclical aspect will be interesting to follow coming up here, AMO seems to be throwing some curveballs right now I would have liked to have seen just how much difference does continue to show and maybe was used more in conjunction with seeing differences and the impact on atmospheric events in comparison to ONI values. BOM must know something more than we do in now using RONI versus ONI values. @donsutherland1

Temps will be similiar as the last event for NYC with less precip. No Temps in NYC will be in the low 30s.

Very windy, gusting into the 40s to near 50

True.

Lol right…Cuz it’s stupid.

Not sure how we have epic meltdown’s in a 1-3” region wide event.

Wouldn’t that be rain for Jerry on that depiction?

even in NYC immediate metro ? whats it going to be well inland ?

So be it then. I’d be fine with that.

The snow will not be wet, temps in mid to upper 20s for most of accumulating snow time

Yup. I posted that hours ago. This may be a very nice little snow event.

There’s Jerry’s icer

I was just thinking about how fun it would be to have no power after Christmas.

Why is South Dakota highlighted?