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Is it me or does it look like it’s weakening just a hair?

Eventually the longer term pattern will change. It’s well known that the north shore is the place to be on LI during winter storms with the added moisture from the sound entraining into the synoptic scale precipitation bands. Now the pattern is more like that of 70s/80s with the coastal hugger storm tracks. I moved out to PA in 2005 and you guys probably got 3x more snow since then through 20/21 than what I saw here.

Dude, no offense and I enjoy some of your posts… this is the least surprising take I’ve ever seen on the board, and I’ve been on here or easternwx (or wright weather before that) for over twenty years.

I moved here in Nov 2018 thinking I’d finally cash in on good winters here vs growing up in Long Beach. Then the luck areawide ran out lol (other than 20-21).

Sounded like a lot of people got in over their heads this weekend. I was cold on Mount Mansfield wandering around, but it’s only 4,000ft and I know I can get down rapidly on foot. MWN is 2,000 feet higher (10F usually). I always travel prepared this time of year with the basics of change of base layer if get sweaty on the way up, plus gloves and hat this time of year. It’s crazy how much those things matter. You could be in shorts even (not ideal or recommended), but if your upper body core is warm with layers, head is warm, and hands covered… those are the keys to both comfort and survival.

Seems like pressure has been steadily dropping all day but winds struggling to catch up. Based on these pressures and satellite look I would think this would be cat 5 now but feel like something has been holding back the winds some.

Yep. a bit of southerly component this evening. Also, it appears to have increased its forward speed a bit. Small chance Melissa gets far enough west before re-curving and just misses Jamaica to the west if this movement persist a bit longer than expected.

Yeah it looks like a wobble SW. Not that it matters at this point but any further south and it'll be tapping into one of the deepest pools of OHC in the basin.

Absolutely true.

Yep, and some of the earliest winter events before the sound cools down it rains north of 25A but snow south of there.

Do you realize a single Euro control run extended to day 46 is the equivalent of extending one run of the GFS deterministic out 46 days? And what you posted is a 30 day mean of the Control for that period. How useful do you think that is? Here is the latest run a day later-

Maybe just a wobbly, considering how strong it is, like top would?

taking a SW dip? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

I grew up in East Northport so I can tell you that the combination of the slightly higher elevations on the north shore and a very light breeze off the sound during the overnight hours messed up many a frost opportunity with this type of synoptic setup. It’s why places in the center of the island and out by Westhampton are usually the cold spots.

Pretty dire NHC discussion...

I hope it undergoes a prolonged ERC soon, which will weaken Melissa.

Another bust here with the precip here. We just can't catch a break. We are in a serious drought now.

You can tell how fake the cold is, when someone sneezes the temperature jumps up several degrees. I was in the upper 40s but a 4 mph wind was recorded and it resulted in temps jumping into the lower 50s.

931.7 extrap

Latest recon pass found 128 kts flight level in the right quad, so that has been pretty steady.

second pass 931.7

Also the various cruise ports, which Jamaica relies a ton on for tourism.

You might want to sit this one out. I by no means support any type of homophobic behavior but this is an absolutely disgusting post. This is an extremely dangerous storm and there is a good chance people will die. .

Are they finding any higher winds along with these big pressure drops?

I really like the positioning of the west coast ridge and Alaskan trough as we head into November. That's a decent sign for winter.