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Carolina Weather Association

0z EPS shows a whopping 25 hits (at least flurries) out of 50 (50%)!

thru November 13, 06z GEFS show 11 hits (at least flurries) out of 30 (37%). p30 looks cool as well.

Nothing is cast in stone right now. Here are overall December cases: For recent La Niña events (1980-2025), December snowfall of 6" or above is more conducive to a snowy winter. Frequency of 30" or more for January-April: December < 4": 16.7% December 4" or above: 25.0% December 6" or above: 28.6% December 8" or above: 40.0%

I was talking mostly about snowfall which was lackluster those seasons following the SSWs. There wasn’t any cold to speak of in my area following the December 1998 event. While we did get some cold for around 10 days in January 1988, it wasn’t nearly as the cold as major January 1980s Arctic outbreaks were. 2001-2002 was essentially a year without a winter.

Especially twilight feeding time. Just missed one on Harned by the Saw Mill.

Thanks! This will come in handy

But you have to head back in an hour earlier, so...

-2001: agreed -1998: had a 3 week long cold period last week of Dec to midpoint of Jan (example NYC had 7 F BN 12/23-1/14) -1987: cold last few days of Dec through midpoint of Jan (example NYC had a 11 F BN 12/28-1/15) So, I don’t agree with your statement because two out of three early major SSWs since the late 1980s had the cold for a 2.5-3 week period after a lag, which included a cold first half of Jan.

Why are the squirrels such a-holes. Theres 1005854908594 acorns lying around. They dig up my lawn looking for buried acorns.

Same thing happened here at the tail end after the hail. Two minute burst of 45+ gusts. Knocked part of town out of power

Winds were above 50. Rotating on radar. Those people on the cape got smoked by the cell which passed directly over me. No joke been there done this that was severe. CG and extremely loud thunder.

February 06 was largely luck...pattern was awful. March 2006 was actually better, but ended up cold and dry.

The only "fast starts to winter, then died in January" were 89-90 and 07-08. Technically, you could argue 05-06 and 20-21, but those had a blockbuster return in February.

Man, it’s gotta be gustjng 45 to almost 50 here. It is windy.

I love the wet snow that clings to trees and all surfaces vs the drier snow that blows and drifts where one spot can have 2-3 feet and nothing right next to it. Like you said I’ll gladly take whatever we get in this new regime.

We haven’t had much luck with early SSWs since the late 1980s following December 2001, 1998, and 1987. https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

MSP finished with 90.3” in 2022-23 which is 3rd snowiest on record. The WFO office in the western suburbs surpassed 100”

Watching the first potential action of the season bump south with each GFS run. Model mayhem season is underway. If anything falls here this weekend it will most likely be frozen.

Yea give me one cold smoke 8 inch storm like jan 22 and a smattering of 2-4" events. Would feel prolifically wintery nowadays.

The snowy December years often have a “round 2” later in the winter like 2017-18 where the NYC area cashes in again and ends above normal. Winters where Dec doesn’t produce often have the raging Pacific jet or other unfavorable driving factor that never goes away. 2010-11 was one Nina where we really had a 6 week winter from Christmas to 2/1 and that was it, but it was among the most epic in history.

Yup, forgot who pointed that out (Don?), but the 4" stat in central park has like a 95+ % success rate.

Severe for little peas?

Agree. If we do get a fast start to winter I would expect that to not only continue into January, but would expect January to be the snowiest month of the winter. The strat stuff actually lines up with January better than December anyways when taking into account the lag period.

If a major SSW actually occurs late Nov or early Dec, that rather strong correlation to cold in the E US following a lag period would, alone, suggest a good bit better than average chance at a cold last half of Dec and first half of January in the E US.