All Activity

Big difference in the AO region last year to this year.

The new Euro is more like its ensembles. It tracks a bit farther sw over the next couple days, which then allows it to get caught under the ridge and turned toward the wsw. It also blows up south of Jamaica.

CMC blizzicane update for those tracking

Here's what I was more than less describing to Scott awhile ago ...this is the 12z GEFs mean for D9ish. This is a rather deep upper M/A 500 mb anomaly for D9 and it's trending. It's getting hard to imagine this failing to detonate a coastal response This is only October 20s ... if we continue with the type of loading pattern toward mid Novie, the idea of the front heavy winter is showing up in guidance - in fact, you can argue that is the case already ... but we're just seasonally too warm inside a winter scaffold/hemisphere. That's a modest +PNA/-NAO(western limb) tandem

Yes this is how that would work, each inflationary period has to last longer. Here's something else interesting, the finding that dark energy oscillates and is now slowing down. We might be at the cusp of a contracting universe as the cosmological constant doesn't seem to be constant anymore. The universe might be hitting middle age as it were. By the way something else that goes along with this whole cosmic DNA idea is that a universe with life is more likely to give birth to another universe that has life in it. It transfers at least some of its physical properties to its offspring. There might be some random cosmic mutations that make certain things different (just like we have in biology). These could be the *improvements* you mentioned (in some cases.) Do you know what one improvement might be? Have life develop more early in the universe's history and even sentient life earlier on. That might make it easier to travel between systems and get around some of the unsustainable aspects of life (and at an earlier stage of the universe there was likely much more energy available to use as a resource.)

i know, and related to that, I find the inflation idea of our universe' supposed first eras of existence as eerily similar to the 'next is larger' ... like, hmm... just maybe the inflation they're theorizing is actually that size recreation taking place - wild idea perhaps

Breezy as usual but 68F and sunny...

Coc.

Yes this analog is perfect to describe how death and birth are part of a (nearly) endless cycle. I don't think the cycle is truly endless though, at some point the entire mechanism runs out of fuel (as it were). By the way, for the cyclic model of the universe there is a specific requirement to get around entropy, it is that the next new universe has to be larger than the one preceding it. I'm not sure how this applies to offspring although maybe there is something in there that eventually drives the whole process to a halt. I don't think true immortality is possible or that we should ever even desire it. It would probably just create a spike in the suicide rate.

That's precisely ... I tacitly embedded that idea with 'death as necessity' Life gets passed the 2nd law by reproducing, where the offspring are - it is hoped, but succeeds more than 50% of the time - at least as good a copy as the progenitor. And, because mitosis ( by the way...) via gamete union has a natural ability to factor out imperfections, there's a chance the copies are improvements.

Breeding itself is by definition a diminishing return because of limited resources and finite land (unless we colonize space). It results in overpopulation. The road to evolution is also the road to the destruction of the evolving species. Human nature itself is unsustainable. The planet will be fine, it has a natural tipping point to take care of the offending species It will always choose biodiversity over the dominance of one species, it self regulates just like the Gaia Hypothesis conjectures.

There is a way around the Second Law of Thermodynamics (Entropy) as far as the universe is concerned. In the cyclic model this is achieved by the universe coming back *empty*. In other words all of the universe's matter becomes part of a black hole. The black hole represents the maximum state of entropy possible. But..... with a specific type of black hole called the Kerr Black Hole (a spinning black hole), this maximum state of entropy can give birth to a new universe. The recent discovery of our own universe spinning is strong evidence in this regard (just like it is strong evidence of a multiverse, for our universe needs an outside frame of reference it is spinning in comparison to.) If this is correct, our universe itself is inside a spinning Kerr Black Hole inside a larger superverse.

We are likely mere days from highs in the 50s, maybe 40s for some

I have an idea for how the limitations of biology can be overcome, what about inorganic bodies that can house our consciousness? Maybe that would enable the species to think more logically and not be so dependent on organic compounds (which is what fossil fuels are)? We would be automatically immune from all diseases too.

I've always believed the Great Filter lies ahead of us, there are some barriers that most sentient species simply cannot cross. Did you know that research has been done showing that human intelligence peaked about 3000 years ago and has been declining ever since? Dependence on technology, the industrial revolution, etc., all make humanity unsustainable.

Stunningly blue skies...again.

12Z -GFS (Hisp.), CMC (C Cuba), Icon (weaker than recent runs but still E of Jamaica to Jamaica) and UKMET (Nic/Honduras border) are pretty similar to recent runs. UK: TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 70.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 21.10.2025 0 14.7N 70.8W 1007 36 0000UTC 22.10.2025 12 14.7N 73.1W 1005 33 1200UTC 22.10.2025 24 15.0N 74.3W 1005 36 0000UTC 23.10.2025 36 15.5N 75.0W 1004 35 1200UTC 23.10.2025 48 16.1N 76.4W 1005 35 0000UTC 24.10.2025 60 16.4N 76.4W 1005 27 1200UTC 24.10.2025 72 16.6N 76.7W 1005 30 0000UTC 25.10.2025 84 16.4N 78.0W 1005 27 1200UTC 25.10.2025 96 15.7N 79.7W 1006 25 0000UTC 26.10.2025 108 15.1N 81.5W 1005 23 1200UTC 26.10.2025 120 15.0N 82.8W 1005 24 0000UTC 27.10.2025 132 15.5N 84.0W 1006 22 1200UTC 27.10.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

67, pretty breezy with frequent gusts into the low 20s.

I think those 3-6 inch rainfall amounts are somewhat overdone, 1-2 inches are more likely. That's what we need, heavier rainfall would just cause flooding and not help drought concerns.

I don’t think any tropical cyclone will make landfall. Some moisture could be tapped, allowing for an enhancement of rainfall.

Yeah it does not look like it's going to strengthen much in the near term.

But that tropical system will probably remain offshore and the front will just funnel the moisture up here without any of the high winds?

maybe some photogenic low topped stuff later?

Frontal passage possibly slowed by blocking, allowing for greater precipitation. There are some hints of a tropical moisture connection. Details remain to be resolved.