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Looking ahead - might get our first heat wave later next week. Seeing 90+ temps Thursday onward.

Just a look at the US and Canadian ensembles, NTX is getting the most rain. Canadian OP shows little rain near/S of I-10. Sort of OT, but South Florida looks rather wet on those ensembles, with the op runs of both suggesting near/more than 1 foot next week. I suspect IMBY, any rain will come on the afternoon sea and bay breezes, although an MCS surviving from the DFW area isn't a non-zero. possibility, as they say. Early Euro suggests a bit of the trough to the E of us may pinch off and move W, that scenario would seem favorable for enhanced afternoon storms along the TX coast.

There have been almost no storm reports in the Front Range cities this year, except for the hail you guys already discussed. That is going to change today, as slight/enhanced risk is in Colorado. Severe thunderstorm watch issued. Also notable, an area of dr&&&&t showed up on the US Dr&&&&t Monitor in Fort Collins, so obviously it has been too dry there. Otherwise, the D0 value unusual dryness is not too big.

Note that the far EPAC MDR has a decent sized area near 31C with no area anywhere near that big in the nearby WCAR/GOM. That is actually at record warmth there just like the WCar/BoC have record warmth. Do you think that this being the warmest area could keep energy from concentrating enough in the WCar/GOM to form a TC?

It’s howling here. Can’t buy a sprinkle.

You just check for ticks, how hard is it? Teach your kids to check for ticks. You spray, you get complacent, nevermind killing all the bugs. By all means, take the easy way out but don't come crying when your kids get ticks anyway.

I drove by :-).

Cant post the loop of the Euro because of the file size being just too big, results are fairly similar.

Saw towering cumulus (convergence bands) early this morning moving onshore around here. So subsidence from H5 furnace High over the state now is not strong (despite lack of moisture aloft currently over the coastal region). H5 heights are just barely above 590dm around here. Pretty weak for STX standards. - - - - - Both Euro and GFS showing a fairly deep northerly M-UL flow & some notable DL shear over the state for this time of year, this upcoming week on the northeastern periphery of High moving further west-southwest again back over Mex. And, the cutoff H5 Low sitting just west of Baja. - - - - - That should cause some decent ML shortwave energy from that Low to curve east around the northern side of the High and then southeast - southward, deep into the state as the High is still projected to be pretty weak/small (still just around 590dm center) on GFS today. Which I wouldn’t doubt, all things considered lately. Euro this morning is a little more bias. Overall so far, a sig turnaround compared to June last year in 2023 when the furnace High really grew & strengthened like hell on earth by mid-month. Also, still not seeing a real strong signal on the furnace High really taking over either on ensembles the next couple of weeks. GEFS and EPS are actually starting to trend upward on Total QPF at the end of cycles over the Eastern half of state on latest runs. - - - ‘Will see how July goes with the furnace High (which normally starts to take over more then). But I’m basically calling this a “make-up” summer for 2024 now, as we also got a meandering H5 Low or wave starting to show up just east of the coastal region & some 2+ in. PWs moving over the coast (more so over SETX) on both models, after Fathers Day.

June OND Euro prog for ONI/actual ONI/RONI ’23 +2.04/+1.92/+1.49 ’22 -0.25/-0.92/-1.03 ’21 -0.30/-0.98/-1.21 ’20 -0.49/-1.27/-1.52 ’19 +0.67/+0.51/+0.24 ‘18 +1.1/+0.9/+0.8 ’17 +0.4/-0.8/-1.1 ‘16 -0.4/-0.7/-1.1 ’15 +2.4/+2.6/+2.3 ’14 +1.3/+0.6/+0.5 ’13 +0.6/-0.2/-0.2 ‘12 +1.2/+0.1/-0.1 *’11 +0.1/-1.0/-0.9 *’10 -1.0/-1.6/-1.7 *’09 +1.3/+1.0/+0.9 *’08 +0.3/-0.4/-0.4 *’07 -1.1/-1.3/-1.3 AVG +0.5/-0.1/-0.3 Analysis: - The June Euro avg miss for ONI was 0.6 too warm. - It missed too warm 16 of 17! - When there was no El Niño, it missed on avg too warm by 0.7. - When there was El Niño, it missed on avg only by +0.2. - Out of 17, biggest misses were +1.2 (‘17) and +1.1 (‘12 and ‘11) - June Euro is progging SON/OND at -0.3 (vs -0.5 in May). - Based on avg miss of +0.7 for non-Nino, bias corrected June Euro prog for OND ONI is -1.0. Based on largest miss of +1.2, OND ONI could end up as low as -1.5. Based on smallest miss for non-Nino of +0.2, OND ONI could end up as high as -0.5. - Based on the assumption that RONI, which in MAM was 0.64 cooler than ONI and has been at least 0.4 cooler than ONI for a year, will be at least 0.4 cooler than ONI in OND, this implies that bc June Euro OND RONI prog is for -1.4 or cooler. *SON instead of OND (OND N/A) Sources: Euro progs https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table Actual ONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt Actual RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

We've had this kind of look at this sort of time range in the extended... it should be a D6 by now. seems like I've seen this at this range for 5 days now -

That is some impressive forecasted movement to say the least.

A few People like this crap in the summer . It’s really unbelievable

Seriously sucks for a pool party , too many clouds, cool, umbrellas won’t stay up, leaves accumulating in the pool, meh !

Already psyched for a flip to a SE ridge and Greenland vortex just in time for ‘snow’ season!

Wind really picked up and it’s getting warm. Day changed in a second

Cloudy,windy, cool. Can't get much worse

Somehow I missed entering, oh well. Just for giggles. 25/8/5

Nice cell dumping...Market Square Day danger

Cedarwood oil kills a ton of insects good and annoying. idk. Whatever helps you guys sleep at night. Just check for ticks. It isn’t that hard. Let’s kill everything that annoys us. Humans suck.

Ha, I was just looking at SSTs/OHC for the Gulf potential and noticed our region. It’s crazy. Even for our relatively cold neck of the woods it’s a blowtorch. All in about a month too…

Obscene warmth

I just looked at the EPS and GEFS ensembles and both are interesting. Especially the idea on both that the CAG leads to multiple opportunities for TC genesis. Different dates but as we’ve already seen the Euro is slow on the take with CAG. Normally I’d balk at something like that but obviously the Caribbean is as favorable as it gets thermodynamically and we should have a favorable (for genesis) MJO/CCKW later in the month. But this warmth is obscene for early June.

Under brilliant sunshine, a refreshing breeze, and an active breeze, the New York Botanical Garden is about as picturesque as it gets.

You're right, that looks more like the usual CAG mess. Hopefully it stays like that. Taking a look at upper level, it looks like the models show the subtropical jet bend and then align directionally with the storms direction as it moves north. I would assume that's why the models show the storm tighten up. This one won't be chugging dry air like a lot of June storms, so the jet needs to decapitate whatever moves up into the GoM.