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Thanks. Do you see it having a chance to transition from cold core, which we all agree it will start as, to ST status?

If there are trees or limbs hanging over an area where kids play, such as a playscape, and there is signs of tree rot or tree damage you could certainly make a case for negligence on the property owner. No different if you say hurt yourself walking through a parking lot of an establishment because of torn up pavement or concrete

I can already see the models festering in their schemes to create a snow chance in October ... Probably continues deepen these odd fast moving cold knifes that'll eventually mean early Lake Effect cold/LR convection grapple. post the 15th this all gestates into a synoptic chance perhaps. Or not, but the synoptically supportive. **This isn't associated with ENSO

Anyway, back to wx. Our area of interest is still strung out. It's going to take a while to consolidate but when it does this loop is going to be very interesting to look at.

Have to wonder if the NAM is going a bit too wonky with the deepening but it keeps this warm core for some time

Nam is a dangerous scenario

I'm always fascinated when we hop down this societal rabbit hole. Can't two things be true? Some of the things we do have come to reflect an overly cautious nature. But some of the things we do also aren't the smartest. You can't cancel school on every windy day, sure. But you also can't tell the parents burying their baby oh well, it was just an act of God when you lost their child on your watch. I don't care about your politics, age, or upbringing--nobody is going to want to hear that. Especially if forecasts explicitly said a storm was coming.

Judging by recent model runs, the offshore track looks to be off the books. Looks like some significant impacts for our area. The coast is taking a beating with erosion, not a good sign so early in the season.

euro selling decent action late next week

First frost this am, Got down to 35.4°F, Coldest so far this fall.

Correct..

It will have some tropical characteristics, but it’s generated from baroclinic forcing. There might appear to be an eye, but that’s just dry air near the center. It’s a typical nor’easter that’s being enhanced because of warm SST and proximity to the Gulf Stream. So while it might look like a tropical storm the physics behind it are far different.

That would be some good wind on LI and NJ tomorrow afternoon...probably some significant coastal flooding too

Looks like it will go into NJ

NAM is pretty far west..

Big change

Convective models will go wild in these setups.

Yeah ...last night with a nearly missed frost here. 37 ping temp but it appeared to really hover around 38 ...whoosk. Chilly. Pretty sure this is ahead of schedule against conventional climatology, ... definitely is so against relative climo associated with CC! 58 now so explosive recovery I can already see the models festering in their schemes to create a snow chance in October ... before the compression of winter allows NINO to take over for whatever that's gonna entail ... Fun year for weather incoming. Doesn't say jack about whether that's coming with winter d-dripper's withdraw symptoms in mind, however

Not tropical, but perhaps the closest to a tropical impact we may see this year

HRRR looks pretty cool, but HRRR at 48 hrs.. so idk

NAM is a fairly significant event for the coast

Yep much further west so far

NAM looks west through about hour 20

HRRRR gone wild

Definitely part of it. Also, the game can be rescheduled. Not a huge deal