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Anthony, 1. Where are you seeing a weak phase 7 being forecasted? The GEFS and EPS haven’t been and still aren’t. 2. I’m well south of the Mason Dixon line. As I said, I was giving you my perspective. A prevailing SE ridge is typically mild in the SE. I prefer it not be mild. 3. I continue to expect a mainly mild lower Mid Atlantic and especially SE the next 4 weeks as is clearly shown by a good # of Euro Weeklies runs.

Good news is there are no holidays the first week of December lol

Very fair!

With the exception of 2017-18 and January 2022, the coastal areas haven't really had great snow since the mid-2010s el nino. Here is Atlantic City: 2016-2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 7.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 2017-2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 14.5 T 9.6 T 0.0 0.0 34.1 2018-2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.8 4.9 6.9 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.8 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.5 T T 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 33.2 0.1 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.3 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2023-2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 5.9 1.4 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.0 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9

Weak phase 7 in a negative enso Decembers in EQBO years analogs are below normal in the northeast. You have a - EPO in early December so the source region is cold. A negative PNA will create overrunning events N of the Mason Dixon line. We shall see

Another sub forum poster mentioned that despite a general - PNA in December, ( if that were to occur ) leads to the following Jan.'s PNA to average positive. This is under similiar ENSO conditions.

I was listening to the end of the Eagles game on the radio, Mike Quick said he thought he saw flurries coming down.

You are at almost 4,000', and not on the east coast. I mean literally on the east coast.

Very true and hopefully we cycle through to better years with more snowfall.

Got down to 30 last night

I know our climo is mid January to mid February for our snows, but I really hate having to rely on that period to start playing "catchup". But this is more likely a product of the last several winters. But I'm so sick of this rut...we start super slow, then things start looking better towards peak, and then it's just a constant chasing of D10 pattern changes through peak climo, and then all of a sudden D10-15 all of a sudden is getting into and going through March. Then we get the best patterns in March when everyone is ready for warmer weather but end up with 35F rain storms while up north and higher elevations cash in

AI has learned enough that it doesn’t snow here anymore so not sure Steve can make it snow here.

lol. Cap tip to the Ambassador of AI.

Looking at the models this morning, the MJO, and the various indicies I am thinking Pac might need some time to improve moving into December. What are your updated thoughts on the evolution of the Pac, such as the EPO and the PNA domains. Of note to me is how active the rainfall has been in California recently.

I'm not one to argue that climate change isn't having an impact. On the contrary, I believe the regional climate has warmed so significantly that its effects have clearly bled into observable weather statistics. But just to play devil's advocate regarding Saranac Lake this year... anecdotally it has been a windy, cloudy November up there. The coldest airmasses have not been accompanied by calm, dry conditions. I suspect that somewhat unfavorable conditions for radiational cooling in the Adirondacks thus far this fall are superimposed on a relatively warm background.

My climo is 4 inches between now and mid Dec so expectations are really low. Give me a solid cover and cold

If you look closely..the crows turn into pigeons as they fly up and away…Hilarious.

Lol. LFG

Hey Anthony, What’s wrong from my perspective? prevailing SE ridge/-PNA. The MJO is then forecasted by GEFS to be strong near phase 6/7 border, which is typically mild in the E US. Strong phase 7s in Dec have often been mild in the E US. A big key will be whether or not it eventually makes it to phase 8 like the extended EPS has been showing. There’s been only ONE 3+ day Dec MJO period the last 15 Decembers!

No disagreement there. My number one overall concern is just regarding the flow...it just remains overly strong and as long as that continues we're just going to have to really rely on threading the needle alot more and end up dealing with more "near misses" than not.

At least we can make AI maps this winter that show heavy snow inside of day 7.

When I isolated all our December snowfalls and looked at what factors seemed to be most common by far the PNA and EPO had to be favorable. With the caveat that the AO is still the most common indicator. But that is universal across every possible pattern and time of year. If the AO is positive it's just hard for the jet stream to be suppressed enough to get a system to stay under us. But in terms of the pacific (EPO/PNA) v atlantic (NAO) the pacific was definitely more important. Not necessarily both but it was almost unheard of to get a snowfall early in the season if both the EPO and PNA were unfavorable. Having the NAO also certainly helps...but the NAO alone without any help from the PNA/EPO doesn't do us much good in December.

Steve is dangerous now. I wish we could go back to the days when he had shitty phone pics

Winds still at 38-40 mph Edit: a gust to 49 just now. It’s just as windy as yesterday

Can somebody build a giant wall a thousand feet tall?