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That's impressive. Maybe they would survive at our 4B zone - median for winter's coldest is -24. We were told that Reliance peach would make it here, and as that's my favorite fruit we planted a whip shortly after we moved here in mid-May of 1998. Summers 1998 and 1999 saw great growth but the following winters killed back most of the increase. 2001-02 never got below -12 and the following summer we had 100+ sweet tennis-ball-size fruit. Then Jan-Mar 2003 brought 12 mornings at -20 to -29 and the tree was dead, other than a weak below-graft sprout that showed up in June 2003 and died before first frost.

DT needs to brush up on his knowledge of climatology

Which worked well for my peak season forecast, though I missed Melissa by 11 hours lol.

I ran the wood stove all weekend. Two weeks ago I looked at the latest electricity prices and decided I needed to order more firewood for the winter.

It's been studied. Effects of Solar Variability on Tropical Cyclone Activity - Nayak - 2024 - Earth and Space Science - Wiley Online Library

My neighbor has a few trees. I’ll ask him what variety they might be. They are fairly sweet and tasty once you know what to expect with the texture. He buys a lot of stuff from a local native plant farm. https://www.nativeplanttrust.org/for-your-garden/nasami-farm/

Solar maximum years include 1958, 1968, 1979, 1989, 2001, 2014, 2024 (or 2025). Beulah (1967), Camille (1969), David (1979), Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988), Hugo (1989), Beryl (2024) and Milton (2024) occurred within a year of the solar maximum or during the solar maximum.

I'm not sure there are many good comparisons on this one other than Maria/PR and Dorian/Bahamas. Everyone knows how those turned out.

Wonder if this season's whole quality over quantity thing is a preview of our future seasons thanks to climate hell. I think it fits the general predictions of a little less activity but far more intense.

Either way 2014 isn’t an analog I would use, but I do think it’s worth keeping an open mind about +ENSO analogs if other factors line up. I would prefer a negative PDO though

Only 5 years away here, as we hit 11° on 10/31/2020.

looks light inland, 20-30 mph-type fare. more like a whisper. Hope for flooding

I can't access radar so I can't see, but it seems to me that the earlier moat that existed has been filled and we don't have any indication of an ERC? If that is the case, and we do not have an ERC on the table, tonight may actually be the time when Melissa peaks given the diurnal cycle and its impact on the periods of intensification/convective activity we've seen...This structure is as high end as you can get in the basin. It's also worth noting that this is the only part of the basin where something like this is possible. This last image really crystalizes it. As anomalous as it gets for this time of year.

Looks like Friday night/Saturday on the backside of the system is where we would see any winds as the surface low deepens up in Canada.

They do follow the solar cycle, but with an anti-correlation. Extreme tropical cyclones are least likely to occur during the solar maximum. However there's a very strong positive correlation with AGW.

I assume you’ve tried them. Any particular variety? The wild seedling ones can have some weird flavors or unpleasant aftertaste. But seedlings with two high quality parents generally produce very good fruit as well.

30-40 inches that common in jamaica?

I moved the plant posts to the garden thread.

In ground. They handled the Feb 2023 -18° with -45° wind chills fine. Grafted trees take about 5 years. Seedlings 7-8. It depends on genetics too. I pull the seeds and then scoop it. When they’re really ripe they have a custard like texture. You should hit up the guy in Marlborough next fall. His entire 1/4 acre is pawpaws and persimmon. FYI…I’ll move all of the plant posts to the garden thread.

Lots of parallels to Helene in western NC from a flooding standpoint. Somewhat similar topograph/rainfall amounts/duration. Jamaica can probably handle it a little better with heavy rainfall from tropical systems being much more common in that part of the world

"Decades" is a bit hyperbolic - longest recorded stretch (in the modern-day satellite era at least) with no Cat 5 is 9 years; but yeah they're definitely increasing in frequency. They generally seem to follow the solar cycles actually, and since we're at the peak of one...

Jamaica's coastline is relatively steep in most places, so the surge is less likely to be a concern. Rainfall and wind are the big-ticket items here. This is probably more akin to Maria in PR as anything else.

AGW

Just built first fire of the season. A cloudy and cool day with light E/NE breezes making it feel a bit cooler than the current 51.0/41.2 at 2 pm.

Scoop. It’s very much like a little custard cup.