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I think it's a temperature nerd's first day - call it a "warm up" for the impending MOS bust season. lol

Key word in this write up= Unfortunately

yeah, I'm just referencing the NAM RH levels. Haven't looked at other guidance, but 18z had < 50% which is typically sun soaked. Plus, it's the NAM for period 4

There could be some breaks in the afternoon/midday. I wonder if the CON-MHT-ASH-LWM corridor verifies warmer with SW flow off the higher terrain.

CFSv2 forecasting a "blue ocean event" for this summer:

That Alaskan Ridge developing and extending down the west coast will block the Pacific jet and warmer air from flooding the country. It will also direct the very cold air from Northwest Canada southeastward into the eastern half of the country. A possible Gulf up the east coast storm track is favored in these setups.........

That's awesome...I had a feeling. Explains some of the advertisements too. Her ads are great BTW...always enjoy them. She knows how to do it

Cloudy upper 40s

Not particularly liking the extended thaw aside from the 6 days or so that was originally expected. CPC has that thaw through mid January and most forecasts have us well into the 40s most days coming up for the next 8 days or so. That'll kill the colder start to the month that we've had

Yes he has been on a couple commercials

Negative WPO was in the cards starting appearing beginning of November as many here pointed out. All signs pointed to colder solutions. After a thaw can we make it a Pete Repete .Tack on the deep negative EPO balls cold. As the STS ramps up too. The elusive East Coast Mauler this year?

Sell

Over to snow now

Unfortunately there is no evidence a nina weakening during the winter period actually helps us at all. I understand where this narrative comes from. Nina is bad...so nina ending must be good right? Problem is there is no actual evidence of this. Now it's an incredibly small sample size so take it for what it is, but the last 2 examples and the only 2 in the last 30 years where a nina faded during the winter were two of our worst least snowy winters ever, 2016-17 and 2022-23. Going back 50 years there have been 5 examples and not a single one turned snowy because of the nina fading. 2 and 5 are small samples so maybe its just a fluke but I tend to think the issue is with 2 other factors not being weighted in the "nina bad so nina ending good" logic. 1) there is a lag to enso impacts on the pattern 2) enso neutral isn't necessarily any better anymore. This doesn't get talked about much but the most significant cause of our snowfall degradation is what has happened to enso neutral winters. From 1900 to 1995 enso neutral winters were significantly snowier than cold enso winters, and the odds of an above normal snowfall season in enso neutral was significantly higher, and almost as high as Nino winters. However in the last 30 years 6 of the 7 enso neutral winters were below average snowfall at BWI and the median snowfall for enso neutral is actually no better than nina years during that period. So if you factor in those 2 things...nina fading to neutral during the winter doesn't really do us any good because of the lag and the fact the enso neutral isn't any better anymore.

Problem for Friday is cloud cover and weak mixing.

If it burns this ice shit then I'm all for it.....

And a long weekend for meeeee.

I don't know for 100% but I've always wondered if there was a relation. Is it the QB?

Wow that really pours cold water on a flip to a colder regime around 11th or 12th like was expected. Seems like this thaw will last an additional 5 days or so. Was originally 1/6 to 1/11 or 12. Now this shows above normal temps through the 16th.

This may be the best snow growth so far this winter Coming down moderate with pretty big dendrites...this is awesome. Too bad it can't do this for 8 hours straight

.3 Sunday brings us to 11.1 for the season so far.....lots of cold days and lots of days with a couple inches Otg Pretty wintry period. I guess its fitting this system would wind down as a period of snow today.

You know who the brother is right?

starting in phase 7 would be a good start....

wow. Not intending to troll the timing here but ... I was just looking at the 12z NAM grid. If those numbers are right for Friday, we're going above MOS and probably human interpretation on that day. It's too early in the returning insolation to expect much assist, but +8C at 900 mb would send the temperature to 72F if this were mid February. Don't know about January 9th... proooobably not. Gossamer snow pack will prevent some recovery, too. If that NAM thermal profile is right, ton of midday sun and light WSW wind will be interesting for the temperature nerds like me.

What about that precip to our south and west? I don’t think it’s forecast to get up here, but it looks like some of it might. very small flakes or freezing drizzle right now