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Was in Waltham and Brighton yesterday......car registered 88 and 99 in the two locations. Meanwhile we hit 71* at the new Pit1 in Mattapoisett. I'll take it.

This would definitely be something... Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

doubt the city will be under 70 for a morning low looks like the so called backdoor front will have zero effect for the city forecast high is 90 for central park on monday..

Definitely still looks to be nothing short of convectively interesting this week. And potentially even next week also. Models still going abnormally steep on ML lapse rates (> 8) over much of the state for at least the early part of this week, with at least some DL shear to work with also. A few large, strong/severe MCSs are bound to happen in the eastern/southern half of state early this week. Aside from svr risk, the flood threat also looks to increase later this week as well with precipitable water values likely going over 2" from S - ETX. Both Euro & GFS even going up to 2.5" at times too. Which is well above normal anywhere in the state in May. Latest Euro run tonight now going over a foot of rain in CTX through early next week! It's been steadily increasing over the past several days with GFS not far behind either. Significant flooding is definitely not out of the question either with storm training another distinct possibility through next week. Especially, a front hanging in the state during this week.

PT time in central NE on Sunday. https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1B8qsia4xS/ https://x.com/wxsarahk/status/2056137683366265143

We are so into the svr wx/warm season, it is easy to overlook winter-type events this time of year! Anyone happen to look at what will happen in the Central Rockies in the next 2 days? Going by the HRRR Kuchera it shows up to 51" in the Wind River Range in WY, 35" in the mountains NW of DEN, and 37" in the Uinta Mountains in UT. The RRFS shows similar totals. Looking at temps fcst for elevations 10,000 ft and above and 700 temps (10s and 20s F) and total QPF, these amounts do not seem unreasonable. Even Denver proper may get 1". Road trip for Scott? LOL! This is the second significant snowstorm this month for the Central Rockies, and while not a drought buster, it certainly will help. And this shows that you can't write off a winter as to snow records in this area until May is done. This is in spite of the record hot wx in March, which I think MSM just thought "that's it for snow - it can't possibly happen any more this season b/c of that record hot wx!" This goes back to what the MSM as to what they consider the snow season w/ an obvious bias to what happens on the East Coast. And in a larger climatic sense, what matters in the end is what happens for the entire season, year, or decades for rain/snow, not short period individual events within these. I realize that the Rockies snowpack this past winter remains record low stats, but for total snowfall and precip, it is, or will be, no longer in record low territory for many locations. This will be ignored by the mainstream. They only care about what happens in the here and now, taking a snapshot of record low snow earlier in Feb, and running w/ that, providing no context, perspective, or follow-up.

And so it begins RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 0834 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATLANTA TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 90 DEGREES SET IN 1960.

Still updating and taking suggestions. One page shopping create your own super ensemble https://ginxweather.com/

Lol

On the topic of the NAM going away and all the "consternation," remember what it can do w/ TCs. Look at this from Barry in 2019 (attached). 866 mb? Yeah, right. And you'd get hype-masters out there posting such as if it could happen! Barry ended up a min hurricane, but even that was really pushing it! Saw this... NAM 3km no longer turns off latent heat fluxes when RH approaches 100% at the lowest model level (as of 2017?). Despite the decrease in thermodynamic disequilibrium that happens in near-sfc air mass approaching saturation, hurricane-like conditions coupled with the model sfc parametrizations still force an unrealistic amount of evaporation into the boundary layer (you can guess what that does for TCs in the model . . .) . Capping those fluxes would be an artificial way to stymie extreme TC intensification rates, but it'd keep the model closer to reality. I believe they removed the global capping to improve forecasts of west coast marine fog, they weren't concerned with TC forecasts. So you can't have it all ways when it comes to mesoscale models/CAMs. There are aspects of the RRFS that performs better than previous models, and some that do not. Par for the course these days b/c it is not a linear challenge (more exponential) as you get more resolute and directly simulate atmospheric processes instead emulation/parameterization. And for the two big snowstorms this past winter, RRFS was not out to lunch. It did well and shows some mesoscale features in one of the storms that verified that no other model had. Shouldn't that be enough for ACATT?

mid 70s at midnight. Summer.

Snowing nicely in Utah's Wasatch Mountains tonight. https://www.brightonresort.com/conditions

Thanks for quantifying it w/ hard stats. I had never looked them up. So clearly the driest period in the last 60 years in the NEUS?

Yeah just a bad overall setup for our areas. Several days of action in the Missouri Valley, and then it skips over and impacts areas east for Tuesday.

Models are really crapping this line out as it moves into eastern Iowa later tonight. Models are also driving tonight's line well south through Missouri, which then leads to everything on Monday developing and staying down there. This might end up being a big dud of a weekend for areas around here.

sunset tonight

Or a CBell scenario…. Either way… ill be there. .

Not worth a conversation once you get these compressors installed… Microclimate your house with mini splits to switch between as needed and be done with it. No conversation required. not getting dragged into, but I will say it’s odd. You guys spend so much time worried about whether other people manage their thermal aversions.

38F at 6am when I woke up and left the tent to relieve myself at Split Rock Lighthouse State Park. 42F around 2pm in Duluth letting the kids run around the Lake Superior Maritime Museum in Canal Park. 70F around 5pm when we rolled into the driveway in Minneapolis.

Really rooting for severe weather around 4 PM on Tuesday. Golf league in 40 mph winds is less than ideal

Or not lol.

2015-16 had multiple wintry bouts outside the torch December. I feel like for here, a strong (or super) nino is going to have 1 horrendous month and the rest of the time will have multiple chances that make or break how bad (or good) the winter is. Its different in the east coast where it seems going on getting (or not getting) one massive storm will be the story of a strong nino winter.

Jan 2024 had a pretty good -NAO with some cold coming underneath of northern latitude ridging. It was a pattern break from the -NAO bouts always hooking up with SE ridge 2018-2023.

As terrible as '23-24 was, January was a good month here. Just the rest of that winter absolutely sucked. And the March thing is wild lately....November has been more wintry than March of late.