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#neverforget IMG_7041.mov

2009-10 was a strong El Niño. 2010-11 was a strong La Niña.

I think it would if it wasn’t so marginal in like 100+ millibar layer. I suppose that at the height it could flip to a 33F paste if it’s really really pounding. I just go back in saying bring me those runs from yesterday.

Absolutely correct.

The only thing I think Scott tossed was just the snow maps.

I am hoping for heavy rates to wash out minor 850 925 plus .2s

34° -SN Getting heavier

That's right...when was he coming back again, Early Dec?

No, I definitely didn’t do that. I was looking at the 6z euro and that was my interpretation. It was mild in the boundary layer.

That’s the real killer here because if there was more sea ice, then it definitely would’ve been colder and northern Canada, which bleeds down to the rest of Canada and is the source region for the Northeast’s cold air. With such a low arctic sea ice, it limits the amount of cold air that can be tapped into in the northeast and that ends up screwing over locations along the coast until climatology becomes cold enough later in December and January. That’s just one of the many reasons why Tuesday’s storm will likely be rain from most south of I 84 because they’re simply isn’t enough cold air around.

Or whiff. Goalposts set tomorrow, I think it’s most likely a moderate snowstorm for the interior. I’ll be watching the high to the North and if the models start leaning stronger or weaker system. Euro AI had me slightly spooked but we’ll see.

2009-2010 strong la nina *

Jerry is in Chicago

I get it totally. Just trying to pull out of you why you tossed the 6z Euro and Ens in favor of the GFS

Yeah I dont trust that we just miss on the system. Early in the season so any snow is a bonus. Sunday maybe a mess for a bit before the changeover. NAM shows it barely getting above freezing when the best precip is in the area. We know how the warmth always seems to win though.

Unrelated but should be a nice hefty band of heavy snow that materializes and gets Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and probably even Chicago. Smack in the middle of the day too...travel will be a nightmare out that way.

I believe @GaWx had a detailed post about the benefits of a favorable phase(s) closer to the COD, versus high amplitude.

Moisture from bodies of water or existing precipitation is essential to raise the dew point temperature and saturate the boundary layer. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE): Snow squalls are convective events, and CAPE is a significant discriminator between squalls and other snow events. Higher CAPE values indicate a greater potential for deep vertical growth. Time of occurrence: Because they are convective, snow squalls most often happen during daylight hours, with 69% of events occurring between 1300 and 2300 UTC. Radar parameters Reflectivity: Snow squalls typically show reflectivity values greater than 30 dBZ. Radial velocity: Maximum radial velocities in excess of 30 knots are another indicator. Atmospheric parameters Isallobaric effects: Strong surface isallobaric (pressure rise/fall) couplets, combined with steep near-surface lapse rates, contribute to the conditions that produce a squall. 0–2 km layer: The stability of the 0–2 km AGL layer is a factor in snow squall development.

Happy Black Friday to those that celebrate with their wallets! Here’s just a brief run-down of Kuch maps from recent model runs: 12z HRRR, 12z 4K NAM, and 6z Euro.

I legit lol'd at this one...

And here it is, kiss of death, rains to Maine!

Kinda like one of those streamers with a little bit of convergence coming in with a weak surface trough. I guess more like a cold front. The other day when I looked, it seemed fairly dry, but I think Steve posted a model that showed some snow showers.

Hope 12z euro comes back. All I was saying, is that if I put my forecast hat on… It looked dicey down there even under the heaviest stuff. Trust me, there’s nobody else on this planet who wants things to break right more than me.

My grandfather used to say, "don't piss this a way", Piscataway..." Anyway, one inch or six inches, it looks like at least most of us see accumulating snow on Tuesday.

I'm not sure exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps. All I know is that something must have happened in between the 2009-10 strong el nino and the 2015-16 super el nino.