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EPS likes Dec 5-6 a lot more than Dec 2-3.

If I get 4-5” on Tuesday, I will bow to my AI overlords

There’s quite a few in here that are superstitious lol, But no reason for a thread that’s 5 +days out.

Keith is concerned about events thru 12/6 Hapoy Thanksgiving my man!

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!!

Oh yea. Gimme.

Euro has been trending towards a more neutral, slightly negative AO/NAO after Dec 5th. Good to see.

It’s best to thread these when it’s obviously going to affect only one region, or there are multiple threats. For now everyone has a chance so we can keep it here.

Sunday at the earliest. I don't bother looking at model runs until within 48 hours...anything outside of that is sort of like looking through the SI Swimsuit issue and believing one of the swimsuit models is stopping by for dinner..

Shut up and embrace the technology!

If it is broken, that would be why imo. @Jidid you say you can see the individual AIFS members? Or just in WxBell

^is this like tropical tidbits accumulating NAM freezing rain at 10:1 ratios??

Being chased out of town again are you?

At the earliest.

Happy Thanksgiving to you turkeys! Early week systems looks meh for I95/fall line south and east. Maybe a brief start as frozen along that demarcation points SE. N and W should see their first accumulating snow and mixing event. Few more weeks for climo to favor areas SE of the city.

Lol - maybe the AIFS output is broken

Got the median for the AIFS thru 138 - pretty impressive. Not caving to the parent. Still waiting for the mean.

based on 500 mb I would have thought it would be a bigger hit tbh can't complain though that was a near ideal run for SNE and plenty of opportunities after this one

Saturday

Not looking at modeling all summer I wouldn’t know how the AI has performed.

NO

Both the Euro and GFS have the Miller B type low developing pretty far south off the NC border - a bit unusual as in recent years we have seen lows forming more north and east. Euro a bit more strung out but would if to be believed give most folks N and W of 95 their 1st measurable snow before any mix or change to rain.

Happy Thanksgiving! 24 and light snow on and off all day. Very festive as we cook.

It’s a bit of a red flag but I’ve seen the AI totally out to lunch before and it has been slowly but surely ticking NW the last few runs. Watch the vort track…that usually tells you. It’s currently tracking from like central PA into LI/RI. That’s not really a big suppressed look to me. It can become suppressed if the vort/energy gets ground up too much but it’s still pretty defined in PA.

What happened to him?