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All of the people predicting a mid October heat-wave 4 - 6 weeks ago were pitifully wrong........

This is a very complicated forecast, I feel for the NHC.

The surface center continues to track sw of the NHC forecast.

crystal clear blue skies are aesthetically very pleasing but not exciting weatherwise lol. This was a great day though, maybe the best out of the next 10. If it's windy later this week you'll see me complaining about allergies lol.

Pesticides are more trouble than they are worth. I grow my own veggies organically without any. We have carcinogenic pesticides in our water here on Long Island, the consequences of farm runoff. This is something where technology can come to the rescue, large farms are now using laser powered drones to effectively zap pests. I don't mind the pesticides you've mentioned those are pretty safe. My issues are with organophosphates and 3,5-Dioxane.

Thanks a ton! Great tips.

That New Foundland warm pool makes me suspect we are going to see the infamous -NAO linkage with the WAR/SE ridge

Hope for what ? Another mundane outcome

we could not grow the amounts of food we do without pesticides. period. and we'd be inundated with roaches without them too. not all pesticides are onerous; boric acid and baking soda are pesticides. pyrethrins are pretty safe. if you've ever had a roach hitch a ride in your groceries and drop an egg sack, you would be much more inclined to be friendly to pesticides.....

Winds will also be gusty going into tonight with the next cold front passing through. Tomorrow will definitely feel like fall with several not making it out of the 50s.

my son's entire job is determining impacts on wetlands. been tough to take samples this year with all the dry soil. developers often get pissed at him for delaying their projects, but there is a criteria and a set of plans to be implemented if wetlands are present. and unlike some idiots on the supreme court, he knows that wetlands don't have to be connected somehow to running water.....because he has a degree in this stuff....

I'm supposed to be in Jamaica 3 weeks from today as a stop on my cruise, so I'm monitoring this storm closely. Figures this one is named after my crazy ex.

Clouds but no rain as the next cold front passes. Frost again for western areas Wednesday and Thursday nites.

the weather must be boring.....

Euro is showing some persistent troughing in the East along with the GFS. This fits great with the indicies.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025 ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 73.0W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025 Satellite data indicate that Melissa is struggling in strong shear, which has been the theme for many systems over the deep tropics this year. The low-level center of the storm is exposed to the west of the main area of thunderstorms. Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the system this afternoon and found that the minimum pressure is around 1003 mb. Based on their observations, ASCAT passes, and Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. Melissa's wind field is also quite asymmetric, with most of the tropical-storm-force winds occurring on the system's east side. Some of the outermost northern bands are approaching Hispaniola, and these heavy rains are expected to spread across that island during the next couple of days. Melissa is a little south of the previous track and it continues to move westward at about 13 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast scenario, which remains complicated. Over the next couple of days, there is fair confidence that Melissa should slow down and gradually turn to the northwest or north and approach Haiti and Jamaica late this week. The motion after that appears to be linked to how strong and vertically aligned the system gets, and that is when the models diverge. If Melissa organizes like the GFS predicts, it could turn northeastward into the weakness in the ridge and move over Hispaniola. Conversely, if Melissa remains sheared and lopsided, it will likely stall and eventually drift westward as a ridge builds north of it. Given the expected continued shear, the NHC track forecast leans toward the latter scenario. This prediction is a little left of the previous forecast and remains a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean, the corrected consensus aid HCCA, and simple consensus TVCA. Although the ocean is very warm, the models suggest that the vertical wind shear could persist over Melissa during the next few days. In addition, there is also some dry air in the storm's vicinity. Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening trend is expected to be slow. In fact, the new guidance supports nudging the short term intensity down a bit. If Melissa remains over the Caribbean late this week and over the weekend, the upper-level winds could become more conducive for more significant strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 14.2N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 14.5N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 15.0N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.5N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 16.9N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 17.3N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 17.5N 75.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Could there be a big noreaster with very high winds as we have seen at the end of October before?

Sounds like a winter pattern setting up. The end of October for whatever reason is one of those periods in which strong noreasters are common, so maybe we will have a big rain and wind event? If so, the noreaster pattern is setting up early this season.

I don't spray anything outside, just inside, when mosquitoes come inside they are fair game. The ones that come inside are very aggressive, I've been chased across my house by mosquitoes. I guess the ones that come inside are of the extra aggressive variety? And now we have that new tropical parasite to worry about. I do let spiders handle most indoor insects. There's a spider in one of my windows that grabs mosquitoes and other insects regularly (even hornets). It fascinates me, it's a small spider and some of the insects it gets are up to 3x its size. I had to use Permethrin on my clothes because last summer I found 6 black legged ticks on my clothes and would have to undress and leave my clothes outside submersed in a bucket of water and change clothes in my garage. This was even with Permethrin on my clothes, so I'm not sure how effective it was. Along with reduced pollinator populations, I'm not sure if people realize how fragile our entire ecosystem is, even our monotype agriculture is one step away from being completely wiped out. We have unsafe drinking water here, our aquifers have been found to have a carcinogenic pesticide that has infiltrated our drinking water so I've put a whole home six stage filter on our water, which I have to change once a year. The wild thing about coal is, it creates more radioactive waste than nuclear fission does and yet people are more worried about nuclear power for some reason. I understand that nuclear isn't without risk, but coal is so much worse.

Anyone got winter stats at BWI, IAD, or DCA for a cold November in a weak -ENSO or ENSO neutral?

Just no rain on Halloween please.

Glad I took a 330pm “lunch break” while it was still sunny out. Almost a summer-like demarcation of clouds and sun on satellite. Nice little cloud deck has rolled in to finish off the day.

NG was up another 2.4% today on even colder modeled HDDs vs yesterday: 0Z EPS (purple) had 7 more HDDs vs prior EPS: Then later the 12Z GEFS (purple) had several more HDDs than the prior GEFS runs: @mitchnick@LakePaste25

A strong cold front will move across the region tonight. Parts of the region will see some showers and perhaps a thundershower. Following the frontal passage, an extended period of cooler than normal weather will follow. Highs tomorrow will top out in the lower 60s. Readings will then rise only into the middle and upper 50s through at least the coming weekend. There is a growing likelihood that the closing days of October into the opening days of November could experience a significant rain event. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +15.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.870 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Just trying to give Kevin hope before he walks in front of a tractor trailer on the I-84 Tolland Triangle.