All Activity

You just said my quiet thought out loud. The 12z gfs took a step closer to euro compared to 0z, so we’ll see if this is the start of a trend.

Euro like solution “feels” right to me based on seasonal trends

No it struggled with the one big storm we did have it was showing it as 1-3” up to like 24hrs before the event and then we got 7”.

If this verifies for the 3rd then statistically there'll be more to come throughout the season.

the one time we needed to nail a storm it didn't. but that's the euro for you

that looks like white rain south of White Plains, NY. We need a colder solution!

The Euro nailed like every storm last year, no? Other than 2/20 of course but nobody got that one right

I think there's some interesting stuff going on up at the H5 levels that is leading to the surface differences between the Euro and GFS. If we look into the Euro's H5 it has a northern piece of energy which destructively interferes with the developing coastal as it seems to string it out. Meanwhile, the GFS firstly deemphasizes this piece of energy and secondly absorbs what's left of it into the system which obviously creates a more amplified storm. At this point who knows which ones is correct but I think is something to watch for

My current location is in the light blue my new home will be in the 6.8" area...sadly I don't move until December 18th

I think we get it good but having the AI so far south is worrying

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone except the folks skipping dinner because the 18z runs are basically their dinner. Hopefully your relatives understand why you keep “checking the oven” with a phone in your hand.

Atleast there's a 80% probability of a storm, I wouldn't be too worried with thermals as of now. Also with a strong enough storm will drag the cold air in,depending on actual high pressure position.

I know i know damn you ruin

AIFS and ECWMF are in closer proxy to each other wrt handling the 5H pattern. A little flatter and confluence better for here, however the HP to the north isn't as pronounced compared to GFS/CMC which would play a role into the antecedent airmass domain the storm would attack. Guess is the GFS/CMC are too amped at the moment and will likely shift closer to the AIFS/ECENS combo. This has climo, fall line type event written all over it. Early in the season for the lowlands.

I mean I like where it’s at. Just juice that up a bit and that’s a really good run. As is I’ll still take 2-3” anyway

12z GFS and ECMWF showing similar solutions of a I-95 and NW hit. While it's still certainly possible, the chance that this storm is suppressed is appearing increasingly more unlikely and the main worry shifts to whether or not thing thing tracks too far north. The TPV over the Hudson Bay is so poorly sampled so this will be a high uncertainty event until precip onset, so don't bet all your money on one solution

Thank you @Carvers Gap and @John1122 I thoroughly enjoyed the game because I really like Tennessee too. Unfortunately only one can win. Frankly we should have been the championship game. Gonzaga? Then Michigan is just annoying! Kansas lost to Duke in Chicago and UNC there. KU may have righted the ship now. Tennessee looks good. They probably got tired 3rd day in a row with Houston in the mix too. I like Tennessee in the SEC! Happy Thanksgiving y'all!

Good blend right now hopefully euro mostly has a clue and we get a blend for most of the forum

Euro is actually quite weak. Looks like a 2-4” stripe of snow north and west of I-95 with mixing issues in Philly. After it passes our region it strengthens and gives New England a SECS.

It was just a poor model living off an old reputation it lost multiple "upgrades" ago.

Ya there was so many runs it showed getting hammered and was a bust or the one 7” storm we seen it kept showing its as 1-3” till like 24hrs out.

Yeah it definitely is. I wouldn’t want it anymore north than that. Hugs that mixing line right against me. Oof. My biggest worry is the marginal temps and ratios during day Sat. If rates are high enough it will help mitigate it somewhat but I do anticipate some level of melting and compaction. Hoping that warm nose can stay south enough to avoid a changeover. But that sfc low does get pretty north.

Gfs/euro mix and we golden lol

I'd rather the Euro be weak at this point instead of a bomb it advertised all last year to no avail.

its barely a precip event but its mostly frozen lol