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Pretty much. Filling up your tank for 4.50 a gallon or heating oil over $6 surely won’t negatively influence anybody on the way to the polls!

If the 850 is NOT -20 C and below and 500 heights below 500 dm, @CoastalWxdoes not want to hear it! You'd be surprised what shallow "fake" low-level cold can do, so don't diss it!

Good point about 30-year "normals." That period is arbitrary and we just decided to pick that as a base b/c it fits w/ human lifetimes as to a "long time," and the ever present recency bias, meaning what is going on now and recent *is* how it always has and will be. From a long-term climate and geological POV, that is nothing and not representative at all. Proverbial drop in the bucket. For instance, a full AMO cycle when it comes to Atlantic TC activity (up and down) is 50-90 years based on TC activity going back to the mid-19th century, so 30-year normals fall flat here. How about base conditions when it comes to ENSO? In the last 30 years, the base state of ENSO has become more La Nina (see RONI graph attached). Before that (going back to 1950), it was more El Nino base, but given we do not have enough or accurate measurements overall prior to this period to fully quantify ENSO states, we do not know the full cycle here, let alone if there is coherent one. So again, 30-year normals fall flat. Also, when calculating changes over time, I have seen some manipulation to give desired results. For instance, I saw a current temp anomaly plot for Australia from the BoM, and it said using normals 1961-1990. Well, you see the issue here, given mean warming since 1850, using normals farther back will give you greater temps anomalies to current. So what is the "correct" base reference here as to what 30-year normal period to use historically? Why not a 40-year, 50?, 100? And using the Industrial Revolution as a start point as if this point is what is "normal" for the globe overall? That is ridiculous and cherry-picking given the geological record. There are not only Milankovitch cycles, which work in the 10,000s of years, but also there are shorter solar cycles w/ the Sun -- Bray (~2500 yr cycle) and Eddy (~1000 yr cycle). So again what is "normal" can not be determined in just 30 years. It is square pegs round holes. And yet another factor, how standards/practices/technology change over time. One of the most obvious in wx? What we call a TC now vs. decades ago, which makes it looks like the numbers of named storms is steadily increasing. And not to exclude snow weenies, how about this? https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history For temp, it used to be glass bulb thermometers, now it is largely digital. One thing about digital is that is can record continuous temps, and thus you can start doing calculations in many, many time periods. It used to be hourly for a day, but now you can go down to the min or even more. When calculating avgs now, you can pick and chose and each one can give different results. Also, digital can record instantaneous spikes in temp. Yes, ASOS uses a 5-min temp avg, but not all temp sensors out there do this. So more absolute extremes in temp are recorded, and this influence record temps for a given location, and sometimes are used new records when it is local artificial heat source contamination.

I've been saying that for years, especially since the 2017 or 2018 "improvement."

Betting on your heavily favored team in a survivor league is the kiss of death. But, I’d have a hard time betting on the Vikings.

Better chance wiz gets to see an F5 roll through downtown Hartford.

Redsox just shitting all over themselves in the 6th inning.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.4 +1.1 +1.6 +2.1 +1.8 +1.6 +2.8 +.7 +.9 Ill grade tomorrow evening when I'm back into work. Will also finish scoring for max temps looks like nothing has changed for many places.

@Stormchaserchuck1 @Rjay @dmillz25 @wxdude64 just a reminder

Cool cloud half way up the mountain today

@40/70 Benchmark Cansips D-M

This was from the temp website https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf I use 925mb specifically to not get temperature but more so to see the pattern associated to this region in specific thus I will continue to use 925mb as a better representation of what is going on. This was a retention year in that the overall atmospheric pattern was on the colder side. Unfortunately I don't think we will get fairly accurate measurements of the lowest 1000' or so in this region due to the complex nature involved with sea ice/ oceanic exchange issues with the lower atmsophere. You will read this within the first paragraph as to the issues involved. Another factor is the slushification that is taking place throws another wrench into getting an accurate surface reading. 2006 and 2013 were also solid retention years. The time period of roughly mid April to end of June will continue to be an extremely important time to gauge how the melt season will go. There is a glaring difference when comparing ERA5 of 2013 to 2026 2m temps.

Welcome! We lived in the Lehigh Valley about 30 years ago and experienced both the thrill of victory (a couple enormous snowstorms in about 1995) and the agony of defeat (skiing in the pouring rain at Blue Mountain when snow was forecast). I will say that medium and long range forecast accuracy around here is typically awful, not through any fault of anyone except Mother Nature. Storms tend to form right over us - or not - rather than coming from hundreds or thousands of miles away, making it super hard to predict anything specific more than a day or so out. One good thing is that we VERY rarely have snow changing to rain, ever. Much more common the other way around. Ptype is one thing that's pretty accurate, even snow levels within a few hundred feet most of the time. You'll learn the elevation of just about anywhere you go.

No doubt about it, now. Line is forming 20 miles west of Buda. Everything is forming then moving right along that line or wester. Bulverde and Bergheim just got blasted by yellow globs. I probably won't even see those hit me until very late tomorrow night and by then the whole moisture line will be racing for the Atlantic. But no rain tonight because I am on the WRONG side of the moisture axis means I get to do delivery! Stand by for another catastrophe in Kerrville with this system.

I will say the Fall foliage appears to be great this year.

Topped out at 72 today. Felt muggy with a DP in the mid 60s. 3.91” of precipitation in September. About an inch above average.

At first glance on TT the Cansips have peak SST anomalies even warmer for Nov/Dec generally between 125-140W. Peak SSTAs are a little further east compared to last month but still pretty far west.

The foliage is firing as we head into October.

The Flyers suck. It better snow or it’s gonna be a long, pointless winter.

The middle schooler in me snickered at this map....

Cansips on TT (not all products yet) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026100100&fh=0

September finished with a monthly mean temperature of 68.4° in New York City (Central Park). That was 0.8° below normal (1991-2020). The September 25-28 nor'easter that brought 3.10" of rainfall to Central Park was arguably the month's highlight event.