All Activity

24 here but I shot up into the 40s

Slight warmup and maybe some mixed/liquid precipitation midweek to ensure we go full glacier with the next arctic blast.

We can build a good pack with 3-6, 4-8 inch storms, nickel and dimes add up.

5.8” here. Stacking flakes on the deck

BN december in a nina means BN winter. On to spring.

It’s impossible to predict anything with confidence past 5 days in this fast flowed pattern………………….

Epic. Remember when it wouldn’t snow or every event would underwhelm?

Yeah, it’s a Nina. Not an ideal winter to go KU hunting. My weenie guess is if something does happen it will pop up inside 84 hours or so. Don’t think we’ll be doing any big dog, long range tracking.

Certainly a plausible evolution.

Yea let’s have another season of kicking big fantasy snows back to D10+.

I think they're jealous of us and want to copy us Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Ice quickly forming in the bays around the Lakes.

are you talking about your area in Northwest NJ or the entire NYC metro from Ocean County up to Ulster County in NY ?

5.0" down

Looks like we're gonna end up closer to 2 to 4 than 1 to 2 here.

Who said anything about wanting a big East Coast storm? I'll sure as hell take some clippers...

Not gonna lie, it’s paltry, but .8” a few weeks before Christmas on a random Monday would still put me in a good mood.

Need better meridional flow. Ridge out west getting cut off at the top

06Z GFS giveth, 12Z GFS taketh away.

Patience is sooo 2024.

NS is screaming! Maybe we can cash in on a good old fashioned Saskatchewan Screamer

Next weekend feels like it's gonna hurt feelings more...it looks like the makings of a potential Miller Too Late storm that could give some in the northeast their first warning snowfall in awhile. But I could be wrong, though

AI GFS

Current longer range guidance differs significantly as to what the pattern does just beyond mid-month. ECAI wants nothing to do with any kind of a notable moderation in temperatures. It keeps the cold locked and loaded through Christmas. Other guidance relaxes the cold but nothing suggests any kind of a Christmas torch this year. We'll see. Modeled forecasts of warm ups have been either wrong or muted for the most part since back in October. Snowfall prospects much more uncertain but I'd favor persistence and lean toward possible light clipper / frontal passage events. Don't see any solid evidence at this point in the longer range of anything major 4-8"+. In general I'd favor overall below normal precipitation for the next 7-10 days. Colder and generally dry pattern looks to dominate.