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Yeah it’s not as simple as “if I have competing cool ENSO influences, I am subtracting from the super El Niño which makes the pattern better for the east.” By that logic, 2023-24 should’ve been cold but it wasn’t. I am actually disappointed that the -PDO keeps dropping further because that’s bad for us. Although I still maintain that the PDO won’t really matter so much in a season like this either way.

QB's playing in/or against the NFC North having a tough run. Black n Blue division rocks!

1.24" today.. 2.18" for the event

Hanna is another case of a TS that would have highly likely been totally missed prior to the satellite era, and even during the satellite era, not declared. NHC was not aggressive in naming many short-lived "throwaway" systems through the early 1990s. For instance, there are 5 systems in 1992 that will likely be included in the reanalysis once it gets to the 1990s (at least one will be a short-lived HU). One thing that changed by the 00s is ASCAT. When you had a highly sheared system like Hanna, it was hard to know if winds were min TS strength and if the LLCC was closed. Now, much easier to tell from remote sat products like ASCAT what the winds are. SAR is making it even better now. Also, what we call a TC has evolved over time. We now know that there is a wide spectrum of TC types and seasons like 2005 showed us how far that spectrum can be pushed! And in a seasonal perspective, what is happening this season matches well w/ what to expect during strong or very strong El Nino. MDR squashed and high-latitude developments primarily. Some ppl here probably getting sick of the "nickel and dime" ACE progress!

Fay is going to upgraded again to a 35 kt TS at 03z. The ATCF 00z position notes this and Tropical Tidbits pulls the ATCF so it already says "Tropical Storm Fay" for its floater WIill not go away!

dude, you have a weather station and still make stuff up pretty sad in all "seriousness"

WB 18Z EPS. Euro is back on board for Sunday.

The Bears third string quarterback looks like Joe Montana. Our second string quarterback looks like a steaming pile of crap!

I have a garage where I'll do the painting, but once the paint is on, i'll need good weather since it doesn't fit all 3 cars I'm working on: my daily driver '97 Accord which is eucalyptus green pearl, wife's '00 Camry which is antique sage pearl, and the '03 Accord, which is satin silver metallic it's kind of interesting, both Accords rusted in the front sections of the rear wheel wells and up the running boards underneath the rear doors; the Camry rusted behind the rear wheel wells, and not nearly as much as the Accords

I was camping at Big Meadows on Skyline Drive in October, 1979 when we woke up to thunder, lightning and rain that quickly turned to sleet then snow. We literally barely made it out in time before they closed Skyline Drive (we were in Sperryville when we heard it was just closed.) The ridge tops quickly accumulated 3"+ with heavy snow still falling making driving an absolute nightmare. Still wonder to this day how my friend's 1970 Ford Torino, an absolute boat with rear wheel drive, made it up and down the hills. By the time we made it to Rt. 211 (I think that's 211 that takes you to Sperryville), it was rain with still some thunder. Long story to simply confirm that I believe your map! Lol

Proved my point thank you.

A couple of guys online, Ryan Hall and Mark Margavage, seem to think the -PDO could have a colder influence in the east because the monster GOA low that triggers the huge Pac jet may not be. I don't think that make sense....-PDO/El Niño is worse heights are higher in the se and any cool ENSO influence is like a Modoki La Niña constructively interfering with east-based El Niño, so the any Aleutian riding would likely not be poleward. Weenie-logic. I'm with Chris on that.

"We had vandalism. Vandalism—all you know, we have a—hundred—and we have a, I think, 290, 300-foot slit right through it. Probably a box cutter or a knife of some kind." "We had a 40, maybe 50, I'd say 60 mph wind. It's ripping!"

You don’t have a wx station . No one in your area had anywhere near 7”. Just making stuff up . Pretty sad in all seriousness

Stealing from the weather station up the street from me: FR: 0.18 SA: 2.04 SU: 2.30 MO: 0.71 T: 5.23

Finally some beautiful weather starting tomorrow for a few days. Dig those shorts back out! Here a few miles S of Prince Frederick we got 2.9 inches from the system a week ago, and about a half inch from the noreaster. Aug and Sept have been great after months of severe drought.

Can you not read? Both are month to date. Let's see your 60 MPH gusts on your weather station that I should buy. Lolz.. idiot

With the nor'easter finally moving away, drier weather lies ahead. Already, the clouds are breaking across the region. Tomorrow and Wednesday will likely see some sunshine along with warmer readings that will reach the lower and middle 70s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -13.55 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.083 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

One rather strange thing about Polo is despite multiple ERCs/structural changes it remains a relatively compact hurricane. In fact the code has remained roughly the same size throughout its life

lol what kind of a chart is that? Holy shit that’s embarrassing. Cannot stop laughing . Do yourself a favor and buy a weather station instead of trying to find something online 6.98 MTD but 7.02 event .

Geography is just one of the subjects Ditty didn’t excel at.

Nope.