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  2. Beautiful evening at MountainState in Deep Creek. Beers, dinner, and live music.
  3. humidity is great for plants and if you are in the pool or sitting absolutely still, otherwise it blows
  4. Our region has the problem of a lot of people living among a lot of trees. Equivalent severe storms here are much more impactful than in the plains. Yes, they are going to warn every couplet because it doesn’t take much to be damaging.
  5. The negative height anomalies near the Gulf of Alaska, together with the core of the strongest negative height anomalies over northeastern Canada, look reasonably Nino-like to me. Summer ENSO teleconnections are much weaker and noisier than in winter, so I wouldn't expect a textbook composite. Given that, the broad pattern still seems fairly consistent with a mature El Nino.
  6. August DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.0
  7. August DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 1.5
  8. I would also like to see a recurving typhoon or two as @so_whats_happening very astutely brought up. That's another thing I'm keeping my eye's on. I feel like we will, sooner or later. Unfortunately nothing much on the radar for that currently. There's only this dubious TC that forms on the heels of typhoon Dolphin. All models show this system too, this is the euro below. Some want to recurve it, some don't. If it did, I might think of it as a baby step. I'm thinking the autumn could bring better chances though.
  9. Today
  10. I'm going to be washing a house on Sunday at 11 right near your town. I'd love to come by and take a look. I've been restoring deck since 1997. I definitely have a few options. Send me a DM. It was super nice out today. It was a lovely day to be outside.
  11. Folks should listen instead of posting silly blue maps and charts . Fire up your Muggy meters and enjoy !!
  12. The WPC has introduced a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for tomorrow and tomorrow night.
  13. The CANSIPS is playing catch up to the CFS and the EURO. It’s very likely not done strengthening this event even further, it was way too weak to start out with and very good call with its “Modoki bias”. I agree that it’s not done adjusting this to an east-based event either. The CFS just got even stronger with the traditional ONI and RONI. The EURO is guaranteed to get stronger as well, with its new update on 8/5 @LakePaste25
  14. July 2026 finished with a monthly mean temperature of 76.4°, which was 1.1° below normal (0.1° below the 1981-2010 baseline).
  15. New York City (Central Park) is finishing July with a monthly mean temperature of 76.4°. Despite the hot start to the month, that is 1.1° below normal (0.1° below the older 1981-2010 baseline). Temperatures could return to near seasonable levels for a time this weekend. Sunday could be a bit cooler than normal. Another moderate to potentially significant rainfall is likely Monday into Tuesday. No exceptional heat is likely through the first week of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -26.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.295 today.
  16. 1. Why are you using 1991-2020 for climo for a 1987 summer? That diminishes the above normal H5 in the E US on your 1st map. 2. The highest height anomalies/warmest temp annomalies are in the E US, regardless. How is that El Ninoish?
  17. Deflect from what? 1987 had a summer pattern that was a reasonable match for El Nino expectations.This summer is completely different.
  18. At least the first 2 weeks look AN and humid. WAR
  19. I thought the discussion was regarding El Niño summers. What relevance does throwing La Nada or Niñas into the mix have? Subtle deflect however.
  20. End of month update: Another 1.8 " (mostly in buckets Tuesday evening) to close the month at an even 15" for July. June/July total at 19.6". Talk about inflection points. Also, the trend held, drought dropping us to D1 this week. Since Tuesday's rain not counted in that assessment, and Sunday/Monday looking wet, will we manage D4, D3, D2, D1, D0 on successive weeks?
  21. I’m going to cosplay this cut off low as a weak tropical storm.
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