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Wha about the temperature profiles? Nashville was colder than modeled earlier. Not sure if it still is. But I think the snow was hanging a little longer than Mets down there thought .

I’m not sure if these Pivotal 10-1 maps count sleet as snow, if not and there’s 2” more sleet, 5-6” snow would end up as 7-8” accumulation. Even with the NAM that seems to be what we’re looking at. But I agree, definitely can’t discount it.

I know I'll be mixing. I just hope it doesn't last very long.

I'd get so pissed as a kid. never understood how it could be 15 then 6 hours later 40 and rain. some things never change

Which is roughly half the storm ,right?

Wow look at the green to almost western MD besides the bay and Delaware. If that flash freezes, all my.

Couldn't agree more on your thoughts regarding Mt Holly. Even now, less than 18 hrs before start time they're still going with 8-12 all the way down through Oceann county.

Congrats!!

12z gfs hammers mass

Does that mean it's juiced up or more south with the zr line, or a combo of both?

15z RAP hot off the press, still holding off the sleet for the most part and staying the course. Hey, at least all the crappy models still have our back bahahahaha. I'm riding with the RAP/FV3 combo; what could go wrong!?

6 am tomorrow.

I’ll fix the title when I get back to my laptop

The 3KM NAM does bear some similarities to the RAP as far as precip but the RAP seems to not even see the wedge. At least the 3km NAM has the wedge back well south and west of ATL 10-15Z tomorrow. The scary thing for the ATL metro is how far back the NAM has wanted to push the wedge as far as lateness into Sunday, if that verifies and IF significant ZR happens there will be way less time or chance to melt things off before winds pick up. But the fact now it has things so mild til 10Z is concerning on the bust end. I am not confident at all in any forecast I have out, even NYC it may be mainly sleet after 20Z tomorrow

Next Sunday situation looks a little more coherent on the Goofus, still a viable option

this is a good model short term, don't pay no mind to nam

Unmet would be a big disruptive event, 6-10 of snow tons of sleet then frz.

1.3 liquid, I'd guess about 50/50 snow vs sleet so that should be about 6-9 inches of snow.

I’m really wondering how things will be here at 7 springs. Such a small microclimate.

The radar over sw oklahoma and texas is certainly more impressive than what the HRRR has modeled.

Temps increasing around the area. .

UTC time takes some getting used to but memorize these #s. Daylight savings moves them forward one hour but during winter it looks like this: 0z = 7pm 6z = 1am 12z = 7am 18z = 1pm

NWS issued a winter storm warning for monroe co for 5-8". Advisory for wayne for 4-6" isolated 7". Advisory for Oakland and macomb for 2-4" isolated 5"

Reached?? Armchair psychology is second only to weather tracking here haha. I'm still hoping for a 6" floor as I have been for days (yes, including sleet). I am in the Baltimore-North snow drought hole with Maestro, Towson, Rick, BaltoSquid etc and I wanted a bigger, snowier storm and get anyone who is bummed BUT I refuse to spend the storm all cranky. Not reading hundreds of cranky posts either, it will be ignore time and get off the forum time. Here's to frozen precip, health, happiness, and hopefully some laughs as it plays out!

Weather forecasting has become an absolute joke. It’s 2026, and they often can’t even predict the low/high temperatures with any reasonable degree of accuracy. I’m not sure what has happened in the meteorological science field, but something is wayy off.