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I was just thinking of that! It's The Weather Company's model now, correct? IBM sold them off years ago. So that guy can't even get his terminology right. Sloppy! I recall the GRAF model being pushed when it shows Dorian in 2019 hitting FL. How did that work out?

Leave it to this person to post the most extreme model solution. This guy is among the worst hype-masters out there. No quantifying uncertainty, just stating gusts to 90 mph as if it is a done deal ("will batter"). Deplorable and irresponsible. And this shows a much greater risk to the Mid-Atlantic than the NEUS. That's not what most models are showing. This is non-trivial difference and only serves to confuses the public and authorities more. " 'Our' IBM GRAF model?" What's this possessive nonsense? As if to portray it's his TV station's exclusive? Many TV stations used the GRAF. Disingenuous and arrogant.

I've been a longtime defender of NHC decisions on most of their designations, but in recent years (perhaps since Sandy?) I think they've been a little slower or hesitant when it comes to designating anything north of the Carolinas when it's not a slam dunk case. I provided a couple of examples a day or two ago. I can't say for sure, and I definitely do not make this statement to challenge the integrity of the great people working there, but I've seen public facing organizations generally hold a more conservative approach when it comes to making calls that could minimize credibility. We see here in this thread people that follow wx closely minimizing this, and the general public for better or worse will fall into the camp of this is the most dangerous thing ever or it's really no big deal. The NHC is in a lose-lose in public perception. Even a TWO mention ramps up the hype machine and everything that comes with it, and if it falls short of expectations in either direction people may be less likely to care about what the NHC says in the future. Hopefully I'm wrong, but its harder for the meteorology to stand alone in this era of social media and hype. Just look at the clowns posing the Sandy 2.0 stuff on Twitter and people sharing 925mb wind plots like we're a few thousand feet higher up. There's a lot of social science and understanding the psychology of the general public that needs to be considered to get people to act appropriately. It is what it is.

This will be nothing like October 2021. That was moving west and then west-southwest with the best gradient overhead. It had like 70kts+ at 950 overhead. Pretty good inversion above 925mb here with 61F SSTs.

Not IBM anymore and that model isn’t that good.

This may not be the classic El Nino pattern for October, but it is +AAM in the northern latitudes AAM cycles usually reverse every 40-45 days so I'd expect something non-El Nino like in mid November

As I posted above, JB is insisting this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it should be named. He agrees with you that the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm due largely to GW. More evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, the Euro has a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. You mentioned that you don’t recall a nor’easter like this in Sept. I don’t either. They’re usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm. He said tides may go to 3-6 feet AN!

Twitter is as much as a cesspool as facebook, if not more so.

Final sunset of vacation.

Extraordinary/outlier patterns often yield extraordinary/outlier events. This is one of them from a climo standpoint -- this kind of strong Nor'easter in Sep. Also, I have to wonder about the winds and mixing, given the near climo peak of SSTs and SSTs 2-4 C above avg S and SE of the region. If it ends up more unstable, the winds mixing down could be something else. Coast only or inland as well? And as we saw w/ the Oct 2021 event, those lows that loop back a bit to the NW when a big high is present to the NW, that can do some pretty wild things w/ the winds. Also, will the low deepen as a hybrid and get stronger than fcst?

Clown maps

What are your thoughts in terms of winds interior and coast ?

18zeuro shifted east a little but no where near the gfs icon and euro very similar except with euro it comes on shore over east end then goes west ward and essentially rots away and then clears out at some point. We're getting closer to an idea but still not there yet.

Partially correct. Nothing like this in Sep for a Nor'easter!

No you don't!

Breezy, temp remained in the upper 40s most of the day and fog/drizzle from sunup to sundown. Mother Nature took note of yesterday's calendar, jeez. 6.21" of rain this month so things in the ground are at least happy.

Tomorrow will be another variably cloudy day. Highs should reach the middle and upper 60s. Some periods of rain and showers are possible late Friday through the weekend. The extent of the precipitation will depend on the track of a developing storm. For now, the system looks to pass far enough from the region to produce lighter to moderate amounts of precipitation in the immediate New York City area. Coastal erosion and some flooding at high tide appears likely. Long Island, especially Suffolk County, could experience gusty winds with some periods of heavy rain. Uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -12.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.757 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I'm glad I'm in my happy place bubble avoiding that nonsense then. Atleast nyers are crazy but sane. Can't say the same about the jersey people coming up with that nonsense.

Concerning the E Coast storm development and possible ST development... I wanted to share my thoughts and throw this out there for food for thought. @weatherwiz, has the below crossed you mind? @ineedsnow will be like "BRING IT ON!" as to subtropical development. @CoastalWxwill just be "MEH" b/c it makes zero difference in Weymouth! Sometimes in forecast meteorology you have to think proactively in the abstract at times for those potential outlier events, otherwise you can get "caught behind the 8-ball," playing catch-up and making excuses. This current E Coast storm situation reminds me a bit of Sandy's situation, except reversed! A non-tropical low possibly becoming ST near the E Coast and how can it be handled. I know of no cases where an ET low warm secluded and became a ST storm near the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast. Yes, the Perfect Storm in 1991 did this, and so did the Oct 2021 biggie (Wanda later), but those TCs formed way E out to sea after the local ET storm impacts had gone. Not the same when you have ongoing ET low impacts on land, and then the low transitions to a ST storm and gets a name! I may be reaching a bit here, but I think this particular storm situation warrants some added attention. ECMWF and UKMET suggest ST transition is possible off the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast. Clear warm core to 500 and SSTs easily are in range. Phase diagrams show a fairly good symmetric warm core. NHC does not even mention it on their 7-day TWO? I find this a bit odd. Many, many times they will put in something even if the slightest chance of ST development for systems like this. Just b/c it is close to the coast and may cause confusing in messaging is irrelevant to the met science! It is what it is. You can't pick and choose. Yes, I know it's not so simple as to how things work overall, but that does not make me wrong in this context. In this age of social media, do you want ppl calling you out as to "this thing is clearly ST, and yet nothing from NHC". Not good PR. It is even more precarious in this case. Why?, I can not recall a nor'easter this strong for the E Coast in Sep, so SSTs are near climo peak, and they are 2-4 C above avg S of New England. Extraordinary/outlier patterns can lead to extraordinary/outlier events, and we have the knowledge/skill to fcst such much better now, and so should use it. I've seen NHC highlight baroclinic systems in the subtropical EPAC that have no chance of development and give it 0/0, and also in the Atlantic many times, so again, don't tell me there is not anything here to outlook. If anything, it is more important due to proximity to the coast. Thoughts?

In the warm section here. High was 79 and humid. Only picked up .02" today.

Here it comes . Keep ramping her up . Can see that dead zone in E Ma up into S NH in lowland downslope