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From what they're saying in the other thread though...is it even gonna be possible to get cold enough in JFM? 97-98 comparison to where the STJ was mentioned as an example of what can happen in an extreme event...I mean to my layman ears it's not sounding great

These latest findings aren't really a surprise. Jessica Tierney et al., came across cloud-related changes that amplified Eocene warming during a high CO2 regime. These findings suggest that the so-called "hot models" might be actually be the more realistic ones in simulating a high C02 climate with high sensitivity.

What do they base these on? A specific gridpoint?

here is what a super nino july is supposed to look like

67.8° A few drops

11.49" IMBY, first double digits since 10.52 is September 2023.

Massive ridge over the west pumping moist air off the Baja Peninsula related

Webbed hands have now covered my face.

Eyewall approaching, hoping for the best in Pittsfield

Yes, but that was within the area of where the highest potential for the greatest rainfall totals. Serious stuff there but rather localized and confined to one area. Basically a much needed rain for everyone with little flooding outside of some usual areas in Fairfield County around Bridgeport.

4 u maybe

I love me a good ole cutoff low. Flash drought fail

Garbage pattern shaping up for the upcoming weekend through the first week of August. Models hinting a cutoff low for Friday heading into the next week.

That should make it the wettest in RDU (as opposed to Raleigh NWS) history correct?

Ended up with 0.66" last night plus plenty of thunder and lightning. Will end up with 9.41" for the month.

Wiz, are you seeing what's happening around Albany? Looking at the ARI chart for the Albany area, for a 24 hour period a 500yr ARI is about 8.25" and 9.25" for 1000yr ARI. At a 90% confidence interval--so the ranges are a bit broader. https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=ct

No one was “calling bust 2 hours into an event”. Monday was filled with warnings and precautions for Tuesday during the day. Merely commenting on the overhype of a rain event that clearly was going to be west of NYC, let alone LI.

Yeah those numbers are always suspicious.

Going to be way under an inch here. Bit left to move through

10" of rain in 24 hrs is 1/1000 yr? That seems a bit much. The recurrence interval would be shorter.

This looks like Irene all over again; I am expecting massive damage on a localized scale.

Very slow moving cold front becoming parallel to the upper flow and potential for a wave to develop along it. Deep southerly flow out ahead of it so a continuous fetch of moisture. See what happens but these is how you can get widespread 3-4" rain amounts and get those areas of 6-7"+

Can't believe its been that long since Irene, time flies.

gotta be Niño related right?

Again? Good lord