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FIRST CALL

not a bad little town except for him.

I expect sleet to be the predominant p-type here.

This set-up is different than what we've dealt with in the past. What is encouraging to see is the expansive precip shield. The 12z CMC and 00z Euro both hinted at energy hanging back which would be a good scenario.

I did not read back on all the posts in the last 18 hr on the upcoming storm, so pardon the repetition or if I state the obvious already said. First, "hope floats" for CoastalWx seems to working. He has consensus on his side a least!. LOL Second, wow, what a change from ydy on all global models. The lagging 500 s/w in Midwest is *much* stronger now, and complicates things a lot. Perhaps this is the "English" CoastalWx was relying on for the TICK to the N? So it may be the initial sfc low off the coast is more of a flat wave, and does not push the baroclinic zone too far offshore, and then rear backup upper-level supports pulls things back for a new sfc low. 00z ECMWF was quite aggressive w/ this, but the 12z backed off. GFS now flatter than a pancake, but GDPS and UKMET both suggest what the ECMWF has being doing. 11 of the 20 12z GEFS members show a hit for SNE. So it appears it all hinges on what the lagging 500 s/w does in terms of depth and how far S it can dig. You can clearly see the differences in the 138 hr 500H anomalies I attached from the 12z GFS/ECMWF/GDPS/UKMET. Looking at the pattern across NAMR. There are some problems. First, the wavelengths are too long, and the western ridge much too far W. Also, there is little in the way of s/w ridging in the NATL. So the Midwest trough is more or less a straight shooter W to E. It goes from positive tilt in the Great Lakes to neutral farther E, but then just stay neutral w/ the trough neither weakening or deepening as it moves across the NEUS. Even so, that does not mean CoastalWx should panic. You don't always need a classic pattern/setup to get a weenie event (see March 6-8, 2013 and a few others from the mid 2010s). Slight changes can be huge in this case for sensible wx in a region/area.

Funny. You're not saying that on the thread.

I'll pass on any substantial frz given a choice however!

Hope the big 3 airports are all closed.

Yep. I'll tell the pilots and DCA management that I have some serious snow to measure IMBY in Clarksburg. Slantsticking is serious government business.

Guys don’t give up yet we know there would be wobbles and we are at the range where storms get lost and that’s not wishcasting. .

The one scenario he missed is if the low slides well east of the coast.

Noted you going to keep repeating?

can we get a shift 50-100 miles north? asking for a friend me

Dude I don't think ur flying anywhere Monday

WRAL also showing something in line with Ethan's possibilities... The cold rain line not far from I-95 corridor.

From SS STORM CHASE AND FORECAST WE ARE GETTING VERY CONCERNED!!!! DANGEROUS TEMPS / HEAVY SNOW STRONG WINDS / BIG SNOW DRIFTS ***READ THE POST!!!!!!! PLEASE LISTEN TO THIS UPDATE…. FIRST, IT’S STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT AND IT MAY NOT HAPPEN, HOWEVER….. 4-5 DAYS IS NOT THAT LONG TO PREPARE FOR A LARGE STORM. ———-Update 2PM 1/20———- FIRST, A FEW KEY POINTS….. 1. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS & WIDESPREAD STORM ON MODELS. 2. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A MAJOR SNOW STORM BIGGER THAN ANYTHING IN THE PAST 8-10 YEARS OR SO (FOR HERE) FOR THE AREA. 3. TEMPS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD. HIGHS 12-15° With LOWS 1-3° AND WINDCHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO. 4. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG, 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS MAKES POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. LUCKILY, THIS WILL BE A POWDERY LIGHT SNOW BUT THEN WE DEAL WITH LARGE SNOW DRIFTS. 6. LONG DURATION EVENT OF 24-48 HOURS IS EXPECTED. 7. WIDESPREAD EVENT FROM THE MIDWEST TO TN, NC, KY, OH, WVA, VA, MD, PA, DE, NJ, NY, NYC, RI, MA, VT, and Vicinity. 8. AMOUNTS ON MOST MODELS ARE BETWEEN 10-20” with a few models showing Highest totals up to 28” for the Mid Atlantic! **VERY CONCERNED** This is not to cause fear or to hype the event, however, we must make everyone aware that this is an extremely dangerous storm system if it does indeed happen as currently model. It is absolutely possible that it does NOT happen. However, most models show that a major snowstorm is likely to occur starting SUNDAY morning and LASTING into Monday afternoon or evening. (Tuesday for the NE) We will be monitoring this extremely closely, however, in addition to 1 to 2 FEET of snow we must keep in mind that WINDS will be 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 in addition to DANGEROUSLY COLD temperatures WHICH we have not seen in MANY MANY YEARS. **WARNING** **PLAN NOW** **BUT KNOW WEATHER CHANGES** Those that have animals outside such as horses or livestock or those that work outside with people such as housing the homeless and making arrangements for people that are outside NEED to take necessary action now to protect life and property. **BE SMART ABOUT PLANNING AND REMEMBER THIS IS STILL 4-5 days OUT AND MIGHT NOT HAPPEN!!! Again, We want to be very clear that this may not happen, however, much of CURRENT guidance IS IN agreement that a dangerous storm MAY occur and affect MUCH of the Midwest and Eastern United States from North Carolina North to Massachusetts and everyone in between. We STRONGLY ADVISE everyone to stay weather alert, and monitor MULTIPLE outlets so you can monitor any changes that may occur with this storm system. ***PLAN DON’T PANIC*** THE INFORMATION ABOVE IS BASED OFF OF VERY CURRENT FRESH MODEL DATA (12Z) 1/20/26 AS WELL AS PAST MODEL DATA AGREEMENT. EVEN IF THE STORMS ADJUST SOME IN TRACK, IT IS SUCH A LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT THE MID ATLANTIC AREA WILL STILL GET A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WHILE IT’S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEATHER CAN CHANGE AND THE STORM COULD MISS US. IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY RIGHT NOW THAT THAT HAPPENS AND WE RECOMMEND MAKING PLANS NOW IN CASE THIS SCENARIO DOES OCCUR. THIS WOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT AND RAIN SNOW LINE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR OUR AREA. Always REFRESH and check the page for new updates and get the NEWEST and latest information on track and strength changes. This is current as of 2PM Tuesday 1/20/26. **BELOW is the VERY ACCURATE EURO MODEL*** (12Z)

Figured but had to ask. Thanks. Time will tell.

definitely warmer than forecast today here - low-mid 30s.

I still think there’s a greater possibility of it missing to the south/grazing us with a couple inches versus an all out clobbering with that being said the trend all winter has been north. Going to be a fun 5 days

I really didn't read the post, just saw the town and wondered where it was.

You think so, huh?

Hand out beers to each student

You all are all awesome been following this forum since 08 I think. Which short range model has the best handling of the H5 pattern. I only ask cause I like to just observed the baja feature in the short term. I guess since so much hinges on this coming together. I think that makes since .

Okay we understand that you live in Magnolia Delaware... it is not about your backyard. Please keep the post on the threat itself and not IMBY.

No, we're not expecting those problems up here, at least not as of the 1300 conference call. SERC and ERCOT are going to have their hands full.