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Looks like 12Z continued the trend of the past several runs of more QPF for us. Temps are dicey, especially at the surface, but it's showing quite a bit of frozen.

I won’t do what should be done with this post

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My perspective on the next few weeks- Thursday night/Friday overrunning is the one to watch. Gotta get that northern stream to calm down to allow the southern energy to amplify enough to bring in moisture. The earlier it comes in the better. After that threat, the northern stream looks to be dominant for the next week or so with mostly clipper type systems and at or below average temps for most of the Carolinas. We would need one of those to dig far enough south to bring areas outside of the mountains any snow. After about next weekend, I think the pattern relaxes some and we warm back up to 50s/60s for most and the pattern resets again around the holidays.

check the NAM for that ... I think the Euro's hinting. Seems to be a CCB feature's being toyed with there. The other aspect that's head scratching a bit. The cyclone is going S. I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth overtop - appears to stay open. Yet the 850 does closes S of RI. I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late. Not enough to call bullcrap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am... we're likely to get decent rad cooling production. We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness. I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance. interesting

It will be done by 3am or so so yes, Weds morning.

Digital blue over the area at 6z Saturday

I can’t speak for the interior, but I knew the set up was garbage for us days ago. You don’t even have to dive into details, just look at old school pattern recognition. This time of year, with the retreating high, and the 925 0C line already punching into SNE on South winds? How is that gonna produce snow anywhere near the coast? That’s what I was trying to try Brett yesterday when he was referring to the euro. Even those 925 temps weren’t conducive for us. I’ll let you know when the set up actually gets me excited.

It's a tough forecast for NW CT... crazy snow gradient possible

GFS has become Dr No and the ECM is now the old GFS what a world we live in

thinking weds morning instead of tomorrow night to snowblow.

I’ll grab any life preserver I can get. 12z hi-res FV3 is actually colder vs 0z and gives the Fall line and above accumulating snow.

EURO also dials up several shots next week - doesn’t look boring. clippers on the 8th, 10th, and 11th.

Wunderground's franken model still has me getting 8-12" then 1-3". tossed

It's really the warmth that's ticking up on the models rather than the precip. There have not been major changes on those.

I think the models are having trouble keying on which piece of energy to focus on being the main show. It has an overrunning look to me if we can get that CAD to build in stronger. I like the early wave being stronger as the cold is closer then. If it waits until Friday night/Saturday it will likely be ZR or cold rain.

Albany finally pulled the trigger, 7-11" Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Yeah there is a nice trough in the east, but I see what to my layman's eyes looks like the dreaded AK vortex. Isn't that our signal to close the blinds for the following 3 weeks or so?

WxHawk - Southport is an interesting place with a lot of history...and good seafood! But I am happy to be out of the heat and humidity - much prefer the full 4 seasons and potential winter precip here in the NC Mtns.

Overall profile is a bit toowarm but GFS bufkit does flip BOS to a couple hour period of heavy snow during the evening on the backside...even drops a quick inch or two.

It’s def had a cold bias in the medium range the last few years. It especially does when we’re talking these SWFE or WAA type storms. The old euro actually had a slight warm bias in the medium range but it was still the best model by a lot.

The flash freeze will be fun

Imo it’s only a win if there’s measurable, so that costing better be decent. But yeah, at least we have something, and a decent pattern actually taking shape. Early December is hard with a retreating high.

A little strung out on the Euro and flat but objectively hilarious to see it show snow just as other models fall off the wagon.

BlueRidge...yes, I am right next to BW Mtn..the peak is about 1.5 mile hike/700 ft up from my house. I have mined the Bearwallow Econet station for much data to prepare for winters here. Elsewhere, I was there in Montclair VA (P William Co) for that amazing winter of 2010-11. I think I totaled up approximtly 85" of snow that winter. I worked with several USN METOC officers as part of Joint ops while on AD, and then while working as GS civ service employee for Dept of AF Weather. Traveled to both Monterey (NPS) adn Stennis during that time, among other trips