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Region 4 is what makes 2015-16 a poor ENSO analog. This one is developing as a pure canonical, east-based/EP El Niño. Region 4 has been leveled off for a long time now and the most recent 15 day SST anomaly charts on cyclonicwx are actually showing region 4 cooling. All the warming has been concentrated in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 for months now and it looks to remain that way as far as the eye can see. The best ENSO analog for this event is 1997-98, bay far IMO

At least one of those so-called monthly record lows is fraudulent - there's a spurious 18F reading at YNG reported on 5/24 for some reason. Also, strongly disagree with Brian about the upcoming pattern trending away from the record. In fact, this is the hottest stretch of the month starting today. NWS NBM forecast shows several days of 3-5F above normal to close out the month.

Wow, wouldn't have thought it had been that long since a July high below 75F. The coolest Julys of the past would see the entire month's average not much higher than 75F (e.g., 1976 - 76.7F).

Is there a way to fix a data error in the official climate records? I noticed from Brian Brettschneider's map, it was showing a monthly record low at Youngstown - which struck me as odd. I took a look and the low for May 24th is showing up as 18F, which is obviously incorrect. Not sure how that ended up there... it doesn't look like NWS CLE generated/published an RER for that date.

Absolutely beautiful beach weather!

Not too bad. We walked south down the board walk so not as thick as right at the bus drop off. I think we are coming back down tomorrow also. Like you said this weather is amazing for beach weather. We took the bus down to avoid paying high parking.

And don’t forget explosive diarrhea from produce… good times, indeed!

12z guidance good so far

Plus ... we've gone and made 'merica so goddamn great again ...Measles cases have soared to a 35-year high. Fuck yeah!

I wish today's weather could linger into September before beginning to cool down a little. Cloudy and 72 with a southerly breeze at 4.

The extended operational GFS and Can are trying to go hot but ... mm, the indices say no.

We're going tomorrow...how crowded is it? This is amazing beach weather

Thanks, Don. It will be interesting to see if 2026 beats 1998’s 100 days! As you said, the record of the daily SOs goes back only to 1991. I wonder if there’s any way to find dailies pre-1991. Based on the monthlies, I’d say that 1982-3 would have a 50% or higher chance of having a streak exceeding 100 days if the dailies could be found. Why? These monthlies, especially Nov-Mar: 1982 8 -22.2 1 1982 9 -20.0 1 1982 10 -20.5 1 1982 11 -30.0 1 1982 12 -22.6 1 1983 1 -31.4 1 1983 2 -35.7 1 1983 3 -25.7 1 Another good candidate per the monthlies is 1905, especially Mar-June: 1905 2 -18.5 3 1905 3 -27.7 1 1905 4 -38.2 1 1905 5 -34.3 1 1905 6 -27.7 1 1905 7 -19.8 1 One last good possibility is 1896, especially May-Aug: 1896 5 -38.8 3 1896 6 -27.0 1 1896 7 -19.1 1 1896 8 -21.0 1 1896 9 -18.2 1 1896 10 -19.2 1

My Rehoboth Beach observation

Could generate some waterspouts.

Some All weeded up with no place to go and others high on chainsaw fumes These guys in some high times

it's hard to read a screen that's been drawn on with a sharpie

To be fair, I don't think the models render correctly on a Trump phone.

Yep, extent is doing worse than area as compared to recent years.

The soil here has dried out again so I'll be watering the vegetable garden today for the first time in awhile. It's great that we pulled out of the severe drought, but we're still in a moderate drought and need more rain. So hopefully early to mid next week will deliver. In the meantime this low humidity weather is spectacular. The dewpoint here right now is only 51 -- feels great.

Tensions are building. I foresee an all out brawl in here come December. Hell in a Cell style. Will be carnage everywhere

It looks like it’s staying close to 2012 to date but 2012 wasn’t at record low levels yet on this date in 2012. It fell off a cliff in August.

D5 slight yellow highlighted risk issued for mid Atlantic Carolina’s and parts of east tn area https://vxtwitter.com/iembot_mrx/status/2080573716241473618?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg .

EPS