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Topped out at 33F.

Wait for it, still early yet

Runaway doesn’t follow

we had a blizzard what would have been presidents weekend 1958 but the holiday was still called Washington’s Birthday then.

Yeah the follow up wave is our only shot at our latitude This is the type of thing that can trend north and juice up in the short-medium range, though, imo. Might get a 1-3" deal out of it.

18z Euro from the SE Forum

Bad news, aigfs is an op model so little confidence in its blizzard scenario. The GOOD news is ensembles (including euro and ai euro) do have some support for that scenario by undercutting a s/w under HL blocking. The ens means is smoothed out, but if you can “read between the lines” you can see a sharper trough or ULL swing across the mid-south towards us from feb 13-16.

Both skynet models have been more bullish for keeping snow chances (even with moderated temps) than the regular model suites in the second week of February. We’ll see as we get closer if that’s more correct. They have been performing pretty well imho overall. They never got very bullish on the 1/31-2/1 threat (correctly so), stayed more bullish than OPs on both the 1/18-19 and 1/25 threats (also correctly). Still in clown range for now.

High 42, low 11. Didn't seem like much melting going on, just evaporating. Crazy.

That storm would be an I-81 special

It;s like Blind Ralphy in Christmas Story "What hath brought you to this lowly place?"

18z 3K NAM

good god

18z Euro...trended the last 3 runs

My area is so often off, as is Daniel Boone's that an artificial snow hole shows up on the GFS and NAM over us for almost every storm. This is something like 8 years in a row here with about 50 percent or less than actual accumulation recorded.

This is the enthusiasm we need

D15 AI runs now…

thats a historic blizzard friend. All snow too

18z RDPS is quite substantial for the SEVA/NENC

That’s pretty cool on that prog… seeing NE flow WAA snows trying to back into EMA.

Islip never got above 32

Alright well fuck it. Here is the 18z Euro:

Yeah I am concerned about getting a warm precip event on top of this snowpack. Especially in the Ohio Valley where there's a higher chance of them being in a rainy warm sector and there's a recent history of significant heavy rain in February. There's a general 3-9 inch snowpack over the region with deep frost and frozen streams. It doesn't even take that much rain or snow on the ground to have a major flood. Nebraska in 19 only had a few inches of snow and like and inch of rain. The region has had bad experiences with that type of flood before, notably in 1913 and 1936. Even up here anything like the March 19 warm sector and we have problems as well.

I don't know how it could've been more than .3 here from Ocean effect though it was very tough to measure from all the blowing..and had some mini drifts up to 2-3" lol

looks like rain to a 10-15 inch blizzard lol