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i wouldn't consider it a miss north with 90°+ expected every day this week.

In the Atlantic "quiet" phase 1970-1994, we got 3 landfalling hurricanes here. Since 1995 in the Atlantic "active" phase, nothing so far! But any correlation falls apart when you look at the previous "active" phase 1926-1969. It shows how you have to be careful w/ forecasting from cycles and analogs. That being said, seasons that have more "home-grown" TCs do increase risk to the East Coast by virtue of you don't have systems forming way out at Cabo Verde where they are vulnerable to recurvature due to just a huge distance to cross. Also, waves or weak systems that never develop in the deep tropics/MDR have a better chance of making it all the way across since they are more governed by the low-level easterlies. Then they "make their move" outside the deep tropics closer to the East Coast. Carol and Bob are two excellent examples of home-grown big hits here.

Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness being closed to all visitors for only the 2nd time ever due to extreme fire behavior and danger. Love that area so much, hope they get some storms soon.

More 100+ readings showing up near the border, even Thunder Bay, CAN. Looks like some 100's over in the UP MI, as well.

Ring of fire pathway 7 day totals

I'm not scared, just I realize the enormity of the situation. I don't think many do, so I am going to throttle it in this case. You seem to forget I live the DC area now, and I definitely "don't* want to be there when it happens. As much as loved Gloria and want to see that again, I realize that times have changed and I can dismiss weenie-ism for practical purposes. Maybe you can do the same for snow? Right! I know that's a hopeless case b/c you still complained after getting two 20"+ event in this past winter in Weymouth!

For you. Good pack retention though. Wish we weren’t capped down here. Top of My. Washington anyone?

Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner. That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday. This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.

yeah, go big or go home landfalling cat 1 would be less than Gloria which was meh

People get all excited when these see a deep trough along 80W or so and a hurricane approaching the Bahamas. However, the ridge of high pressure to the NE is what is all about in the end. If you do not have that, forget it! From empirical observations alone, give a hurricane *any* excuse to recurve sharper than any model fcst once N of 35N, it will, unless you have that block to the NE. I don't care how strong the trough is or how negative it gets, you need the high to prevent "escape."

You joining the forum is like drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round!!

Great post!

You have a better chance for a major ice storm than a major hurricane in SNE.

CoastalWx need to test his "120 mph wind risk zoning" in Weymouth! Don't get him started on that when he moved there!

100% agree...I think the unraveling will begin within 48 hours. Once the shock wears off and people begin to realize how bad the situation is.....many people couldn't handle the covid lock downs. The aftermath of a direct hit from a strong hurricane will make the Covid lock downs seem like a trip to Disney World.

Perspective matters! Too many that have never lived anywhere else in one location often have this skewed perception about wx in general. The "IMBY Syndrome" I like to call it. Also, we have this bias in a regional sense in this country, as in "East Coast is i!t" More specifically DCA-BOS and sometimes the "center of the universe" NYC! Wx does not care about where we chose to populate the most, but our cognitive biases tell us otherwise!

Yeah you can bank on that no matter what I think. Unless you had something truly unprecedented, like a C5 because SSTs and OHC are just astoundingly outside the historical record off like NJ, or the scenario that I posed where the steering pattern entirely collapses over the region, it'd just be climo. New England gets high end wx too, it's just less frequent.

Glad yall are getting in on the good stuff.

There may be two rounds of storms 1) During the evening (7-11 PM) 2) Overnight (1-3 AM) Certainly may have to watch for some discrete storms to pop too with that time frame being after 5-6 PM...something to definitely watch for in terms of tornado potential, though potential for these discrete storms early may be more northwest of Portland. I know Portland is outside the enhanced and may be a bit far southwest from the greatest potential but its a damn impressive environment there well into the overnight

Can you imagine 75% of customers w/o power in MA/CT/RI alone? That's what would likely happen w/ another 1938. Sandy at max had about 8M ppl w/o power I think, but that was spread from BOS to DCA. How about 8M in SNE alone? That's *way* worse. New England direct hurricane strikes being rare have a big plus, but also big minus. The minus being the population has limited or no experience w/ them so when one finally occurs again, it is a *lot* worse, esp. psychologically, and almost 35 years now since the last? A disaster is often only as bad as the preparation, or lack of it. The Gulf Coast and and FL know the deal being through it so often, and they are much better prepared each time b/c of this. The downside of course is that the get hit more. Well, everything has a cost/benefit ratio, but there is nothing inherently "wrong" w/ that! In this case, it's just climo! And of course when this New England hurricane disaster finally occurs again, they will blame climate change. Ignore facts and history b/c the "cause" is all that matters. So when we had 5 landfalls 1938 to 1960, was it climate change then? Worst SNE flooding on record also in this period (Connie/Diane Aug 1955). Why is it almost 35 years now w/ no landfall, which is the record (or second place depending on what you count), when the globe got steadily warmer during this time? How can this be? How do you resolve this contradiction to the narrative? Everything is supposed to get worse across the board! This is a problem mindset now, linear and vapid thinking, Bandwagon fallacy and let emotions rule rather than logic and reason. Cherry-pick information to maximize the narrative. Logical fallacies and cognitive bias are *rife* here, and these shortcomings of human nature exploited by TPTB. Not saying climate change is not a problem, it is (you have to say this b/c otherwise you get "DENIER!"), but they way it is handled is all messed up due political/social/economic factors, among other things. The science is contaminated. This I think we all can agree on! When you talk about anything, esp. a problem, you need to include *all* information. The narrative for climate change is distinctly lopsided (the world is going to end). and it goes beyond just a particular narrative, it also is highly negative, and negative news sells, plain and simple. So independent of any politics, the *business* for climate change is huge, and is exploited for profit. There is unsaid mode for those in power, "never let a problem, disaster, or tragedy go to waste!"

Still pretty active on Euro AI Ens. Waiting to see GDM.

Still pretty active

Sandy was brutal here-tree damage and a tidal surge of close to a mile inland. Many had no power for 10 days and the tree cleanup went on for a month....can't imagine a 1938 redux with today's population. Probably would put a couple insurance companies out of business.

Do you have a sense of the time frame for Portland to get "drilled"? Thinking of clearing out my (non-existant) Y2K bunker...

Another heavy downpour just crawling directly along I-90. That area this summer gets it every single time .