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After the rain Sunday and a couple warm days following it looks really nice. I even see highs in the 50's late next week. Real fall color has finally started here in the lowlands (The trees at my cabin on Tug Hill are almost bare). I'm looking forward to my annual fall hikes up in Catoctins in a couple weeks.

It’s ridiculous how almost every storm in the gulf seems to rapidly intensify now.

It's going to be a winner today, low 70s

Yes and the vast majority of that was low-hanging fruit - in rural areas of a tyrannical country - China, where they have cheap labor and little regard for the environment or human rights. Here in the rest of world though things aren't so easy. As an example - here's the mix for the past month PJM interconnect - the largest electrical grid in the US: https://www.gridstatus.io/live/pjm Only 2.6% was wind, and 3.7% solar. The vast majority is natural gas, nuclear, and coal. This is after several decades of big subsidies for renewables - still only 6% of the mix, in the largest grid in the country. Why, may you ask? Because a lot of people live here. It's just really hard to put solar and wind where people live. Because as I say - it take a lot of room, and a lot of resources. And people don't like it when your replace their local forests and farmlands with fields full of man made industrial stuff.

Winds catching up to the pressure falls. Wouldn’t surprise me if recon found a cat 2 this morning. RI since yesterday morning in spite of shear. 40 mph increase since this time yesterday.

The current ENSO longitude Index lines up better with other years using ONI vs RONI. A couple of possible explanations: 1) This nino is unusually east-based for its strength and/or RONI isn't a great strength indicator for this particular nino. In any case this year is an outlier.

52 and moderate rain in Athol...warm weather setup is back

A balmy 50F down here compared to yesterday’s 32F

Yup ...

Wxrisk.com · · Author I don't want to go into too much right now because I am looking at the tropical cyclone and Gathering other seasonal data/ trends but once we get past December the idea of a mild and wet winter from JAN 7- MARCH 20 across the eastern US is looking less and less likely. Reply Edited Wxrisk.com · · Author Some of you may recall all last autumn the winter 2025-26 forecast from Climate Prediction Center as well as the the general consensus forecast for a mild winter. WxRisk was the only one (that I know) who argued that the winter would be close to normal overall and at times severe. Sometimes consensus is correct. Being contradictory for its own sake is stupid. Cynicism is not the same thing as skepticism.. But I am beginning to see some Clues…

Yeah, these “I” storms usually occur when the hurricane season is at its peak so it’s the most-retired letter.

Probably a secondary underlying factor overlapping with both ONI and RONI. Since we have had much stronger GOA lows in the past with similar RONI values. 1986-1987 had a much more expansive GOA-NP low than 2023-2024 with both RONI values near +1.5. Also note the much weaker GOA low in 2015-2016 than 1997-1998 despite identical RONI values of +2.3. My guess is this is a similar phenomenon we have been observing with all ENSO states. The 500mb ridges have become much stronger and expansive relative to the low pressure troughs. These stronger ridges have been driving the persistent -PDO and +AMO. So the warmer SSTs in the mid-latitudes are probably helping to cause a feedback loop. This area is outside the RONI band in the tropics.

Definitely but that graph also has the ecmwf model climate and the prediction is weaker than that, too. A weaker pv and a tendency towards blocking in a very strong nino year doesnt seem too surprising to me.

Well look at that…. Rain on Sunday

Clean up in the winter merchandise aisle

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday, as the remnants of Isaias quickly move through the Commonwealth. Our ensemble prediction systems remain fairly consistent in showing a quick eastward movement of Isaias` remnants and associated moisture from the OH Valley across the Mid-Atlantic from later this weekend into early Monday. From this early vantage point, it looks like the most persistent/concentrated rainfall across Central PA will be centered on the Sunday afternoon to Sunday night period. Initial indications are that a combination of a short time window for heavier rainfall (most likely 12-18 hours, perhaps even less), plus a welcome recent stretch of drier conditions, should significantly mitigate the potential for sustained heavy rainfall/flooding. That being said, we`ll continue to watch the progress of this system closely over the coming days.

Agree that we aren't going to reach net zero by 2050s on our current trajectory. Not even close. But that isn't because renewables/batteries/EV can't replace a significant fraction of the fossil fuels used today by then. Its a question of political will not technology. Solar and wind grew 3X faster last year than nuclear did in its best year ever 40 years ago. Energy density doesn't translate into cost or offset other negative aspects. I'd love to see more nuclear but what is going to change to improve nuclear's trajectory?

54° torchish degrees.

It’s a bit wild lol