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HRRR is being retired when the RRFS goes live. The goal is to unify and improve upon models like HRRR, HREF, and NAM with a single, advanced system.

We're still long range for that model, we're not within 24 hours of most of the event yet, more like 30 hours. If other guidance at 12z trends toward it then sure.

Question...can sleet have varying ratios like snow or is it always a straight 3:1?

Great read on the ice down south https://x.com/mattvanswol/status/2014897795627384836?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Not as bad as I thought it would be based on the comments.

I don't use kuchera maps, 10-1 when in doubt. We could manage a little better than 10:1 since we're starting so cold but ratios will lower as the mid levels warm up.

hrrr is the best short term model and it looks perfect hope it's right.

Rgem lost very little since 0z.

Note NWS saying travel will be nearly impossible.....

It's 4 degrees here just north of Winchester i don't know about you but that feels like a good thing heading into a storm. If the nam is right then im not really sure what that much sleet will look like but that's an extreme event no doubt. Buckle up people almost game time

The 10:1 and kuch snow maps are the same number, little weird lol

gm guys i fell asleep, i see gfs was good at 0z but not 6z euro and cmc looked pretty cold at 0z

RGEM still looks really good with a huge front end thump.

When was the last time that happened? Maybe the frigid 1977 winter?

DC latest NWS SUNDAY EVENING... .A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week with sub-zero wind chills likely at times. DCZ001-MDZ006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ051-053-054-502-506-526-527- 241830- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/ District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 7 and 14 inches, with highest in the far northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, and northern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway 50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A prolonged period of wind chills in the teens and single digits continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times.

RGEM is a huge thump. Almost a foot on Long Island

With these frigid temps this next week I have no doubt the bay will freeze. Especially where I live in Baltimore county

6F

Love this blurb from RAH disco. I have said all along that sleet is going to save my area from crushing ZR. Of course not too far from me it's going to be lights out. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 457 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 400 AM Saturday... * There will probably be a corridor of more sleet accumulation at the expense of freezing rain accrual than currently forecast, probably over a portion of the nw Piedmont. This probability is not explicitly forecast at this time; and it may not be until the nowcasting phase, when observational trends indicate when and where it may occur. * No notable changes have otherwise been made to the ongoing forecast.

Latest Winter Storm updates just issued from NWS. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week with sub-zero wind chills likely at times. MDZ003>005-502-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-504-241830- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Central and Eastern Allegany- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Eastern Mineral- 526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 10 and 16 inches, with highest amounts north and west of US-340. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch, mainly south and east of US-340. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected Sunday. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A prolonged period of very cold wind chills continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next week.

Well it's a week out . After this storms turn north I'll take a whiff a week out. A whiff now could mean coastal by then

Thursday looks like a snow event with that clipper

and the "blizzard" for next week is a whiff now

Really going to be a nowcast for tomorrow am. We will be watching the snow/sleet line in real time. Side note: 6Z 3K NAM forecast is 3 degrees too warm for me at 6 am this morning, so who knows about whether it is right for Sunday am.