All Activity

0Z UK: high end 992 mb TS hits FL panhandle Sat AM and is the 3rd UK full run in a row with a Gulf TC: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.8N 94.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2026 84 22.8N 94.2W 1005 27 0000UTC 08.10.2026 96 22.6N 93.1W 1002 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 108 23.9N 91.7W 999 36 0000UTC 09.10.2026 120 25.0N 90.3W 997 41 1200UTC 09.10.2026 132 26.3N 89.4W 996 41 0000UTC 10.10.2026 144 27.9N 87.8W 992 53 1200UTC 10.10.2026 156 30.3N 86.6W 996 42 0000UTC 11.10.2026 168 32.6N 87.9W 1003 29

Picked up some good rain today and tonight. 1.56 so far.

mid atlantic bomb in feb

not really this is typical this time of year in fairbanks..

I'll take it.

Follow-up: as expected per model progs, 80N+ warmed further since 9/30 with a total of a whopping 5C over just the last 4 days to solidly AN:

Yes, yes it is. I already live on it. not trying to throw a “yellow card” for the shoreline, but it’s better than living on “Ocean Avenue.”

Impossibly beautiful day up at WXW2. A generational foliage run here this year which I hope extends to SNE in another week or two.

Insane

Cohen's postulation that high rate of advance of Siberian snow cover during October leads to a -AO winter has been hit or miss at best, but almost always a miss during Strong El Ninos.

If you're referring to the theorem by Judah Cohen that postulates rapid snow cover advance can weaken the polar vortex, the jury seems to believe that's incorrect.

Could be a lot worse. The current modeling suggests we should be able to put down some good snow into Siberia in the next week or two. Plus, it's more about the advance rate of Siberian snowpack, rather than total volume. There have been a few studies on this done if I am recalling correctly.

This entire summer except for late July was horrible and now the start of fall sucks too. Even worse is the models have backed off a bit on the extent of the cool down. The leaf change is expected to suck as well due to the drought.

Sure. It can hit anything. There’s some filtering algorithms. On social media tonight there’s some vids from Cedar Point in OH where there’s huge swarms of insects coming off of Lake Erie. Here’s an example of the beam being ducted back to the surface and picking up traffic on I40 east of KLIT https://www.kark.com/weather/weather-headlines/ast-blog-radar-beams-towards-i-40/

Cool.

Be more specific. Let me put it this way, if NNE gets a foot plus and @dendrite is walking in "white gold," and Weymouth is all rain, you are just as mad as if no storm occurred at all!

Well that's part of the issue overall w/ you. Beggars can't be choosers. Now, I guess we can say for @CoastalWx "if it is not a Miller B, who cares...MEH!" And what about the ones that don't "fit?" Dec 9, 2005 for instance, Or the early March 2013 "surprise" event? How about the 100 hr snowstorm late Feb 1969? Oh, wait, "the BOS 26" fell over 100 hr. It was all S- w/ sucky dendritic growth w/ an avg snowfall rate only 1/4"/hr -- WORST EVA!" Meanwhile, in @dendrite country, 50"+ falls!

Ok so it's hitting dew or small items at the surface. Is it any object, like houses, trees, etc? Or is it stuff that's very small, certain size and characteristics that are similar to hydrometeors? Sorry if I'm being dense, want to really wrap my head around this once and for all .

Just amazing photos as always!

And how often does it actually snow in October(outside of a few flakes) east of the western highlands? This seems silly and irrelevant, regardless of how many times it is mentioned here.

Without help from the NAO we probably are cooked. May be ample severe wx and flooding threats this Winter.

Well they’re hitting the surface. Moisture/dew on objects, insect swarms, dust, etc. Although I didn’t see any flying insects tonight. https://8245forecast.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/anomalous-propagation-part-1-ground-clutter/