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Snow is more important than all of those things. What kind of weenie are you?.

The times, they are a changin’

It probably about that time when we start seeing some crazy computer runs for next week and just beyond. We're getting some very beneficial rain today. Possibly some thunder tonight and tomorrow as well. Perhaps that old rule plays out this time!

We're grown adults here. Not children. And it's called couth, something that you should try working on. There is a way of saying things to someone without saying it in such a rude manner. Anyway, being real and direct doesn't make you respectable.... ( and for the record, most of us are well aware that most of his posts are ultra positive and that most of them don't actually come to fruition, but ... he's never said in any of his posts that that they were going to happen ). He would just post what could happen with the best case scenario. There's a big difference there.

One day (Nov. 26) prevented us from ending the year with 5 consecutive months that had below normal temps. Thanks alot November 26th....

WB 18Z 3K NAM: and what happened to that 60-70 degree weather forecasted before Sunday????

I'll echo the others. Praying for your mother and you too.

True, no disagreement there homie.

How is the GEFS and ENS looking? I know the 12z Euro OP didn't show a storm today. .

Yea. If one does happen, I can’t see it being on the same level as February, 2018. That SSWE was just off charts, very highly anomalous. I’d have to say the chances of seeing two in less than a decade is extremely unlikely, but I guess stranger things have happened

Continuing what it was showing earlier, the NAM Nest still likes Sunday afternoon for some of us getting a burst of convective snow. The CAPE field is non-zero, and other mesoscale models hint at the same idea:

As we know these little events are the bread and butter of our winters. Hopefully we can pull an inch or 2.

FWIW, the HRRR has a much weaker and more veered 850 mb wind field than most of the other guidance. The images below show a massive difference in the intensity of the overrunning.

So I've been working on a new concept I call "climate analog pairs" and basically it looks to pair a location's current climate with a late 20th century climate of another location hundreds of miles south. I actually think it's more intuitive going in the opposite direction. As a millennial, you may want to determine where you can locate the climate of your childhood. Unfortunately, it's no longer going to be in your hometown but rather hundreds of miles north of your hometown. I think this is a better way of looking at climate change - rather than saying its warmed a couple of degrees, one could say instead it's warmed so much that the local climate has been replaced with the late 20th century climate conditions 200 miles south of here. Here's the thread where I explain the concept and then address a couple of anticipated objections. Any thoughts?

this is our moment

nice, was thinking that we ended up right around 2"

I wouldn’t be shocked if we trend firmly towards the first event not delivering soon and the models really hone in on system 2. There’s definitely a path for storm 1, but my thinking: Current mess outside - initiates the changes we need late weekend. Pattern becomes more favorable. Storm 1 - lays out the plates, fine china and silverware. Establishes cold profiles and makes way for storm 2. Storm 2 - Delivery

Powell, I hate to hear that. Hang in there.

JB, Steve D , DT and Henry Marquisity also.

I am honestly on the fence with it. Typically we only see a full destruction of the SPV 1-2 times a decade. I have a feeling we may have to wait but hope I am wrong.

Incoming rain junk heading in. Dark-gloomy-ominous looking clouds outside... 50F/Going to be a raw night/Sat

you're right. just kinda hard to take sometimes when someone's insulting your intelligence in that way. i worked my ass off for this lmao

The Euro Weeklies this afternoon definitely support that CFS MJO map. Get a good window from say Jan15-22nd-ish. Then, we roll a ridge complex through to end the month, then do it again to start February. The interesting thing will be if the cold can actually retreat or if it gets trapped under a HL block. The Euro control had the EC cold throughout the run. Just kind of seems like it is going to be difficult to push the cold out of the pattern for long periods of time, but I could be wrong! Ripe, ripe, ripe for an ice storm if we push a 500 ridge into the SE but the surface doesn't respond to the AN heights, ie stays cold.

You don’t have to engage. We all seen your posts and your reasoning and the quality of your posts. It should just roll off your back.