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Hopefully this one is memorable for all the right reasons.

Can someone post a total QPF map for the 12z runs, at least NAM and GFS? GFS seemed pretty damn wet.

I have a feeling Framingham-ORH-Wachusett is gonna put down some big numbers. Great day to ski WaWa

When does the GFS fold like a cheap suit and show 4 inches for dc? 18z or 0z?

Also, the GFS is wildly consistent. Expect the GEFS to be lit up (albeit way less important)

Doesn't seem like there's any escaping ice now. Anything less than .5 ZR will be a win for us. Ice storm of a lifetime incoming..

More flow snow Monday night. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

i think 18z could be snow. If its heavy enough may it fights off the sleet

WSW for 12-18! Bullish

I doubt this storm will have those types of crazy snowfall gradients. There will obviously be some enhanced areas but prob more like someone getting 19” or 20” versus 15” instead of 25-burgers 10 miles away from a foot. The massive thump should be relatively uniform 10-15” and then anything on top of that will probably be Monday onshore flow stuff.

Wrap around snow on the GFS, still snowing at 1 pm on Monday.

What is the chance a Cold Weather -Advisory will be issued? One was issued for the DMV region

The GFS has been holding out on bringing sleet to NENJ, Westchester, and the south shore of CT. This run it finally did briefly - even viewed on the 6hr panels. But its run-to-run shifts fortunately haven't been huge. And it looked like the GFS actually made bigger moves south of us around 48hr with an initially sharper trof before shifting east later in the run... like it was playing catch up initially on the phasing but still picking up on the trend towards a more positively tilted trof angle.

We have to watch how it plays out on Sun AM. It's going to be a very high impact storm here regardless of how much sleet we get and I'd argue even higher impact with sleet. Sleet is very tough to move and lasts longer. It will also all freeze up into a brick after it's done. The snowpack with 9-10" and sleet or 15-16" all snow has the same water content. Every model has the initial heavy thump of snow-does it stay intact like a wall or start shredding up, if it shreds up we get sleet sooner. That being said the sleet will sooner or later get here in this type of storm, always does.

I also think so. We always have to worry about sleet but now the models are bringing the precip in earlier and transferring faster to the coastal.

ORH hills and inside 128, I should say...but EURO is insistent on that northern band, which bodes well for MRV.

What is going on with the gfs to get that low east of the apps? Ive noticed the RGEM tries to do that as well this run, is that a transfer?

The posters just wishing for a big storm still have lots of time left. It’s only January.

GFS is consistent with most of the greats in our area. Very hard to stay all snow...but 90+% snow is doable...and think 8 to 14 is a good call attm from CNJ into NYC. That's what I'm telling people anyway. Bust low potential 4". Bust high potential 17".

Oh friend the posts I hide that I agree with are in the thousands

Especially on EURO....I'm just nervous of wind backing more NE and 850 flow weakening or shifting.....I just want to avoid getting Dec 2003, PD II, Jan 2022ed...not asking for a jack, but just avoid getting 12" while surrounding areas have 20-30".

I think we had discussed the useful range right now for the AI models and were leaving that range going forward.

GFS is 2.5" of sleet and 0.9" zr for Raleigh

Looking very similar to NAM .