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I should start doing my "ensemble blend" method again...but I just haven't had time lately. But a few years ago when I did that...it worked pretty good and was fairly predictive of our chances...the one actual snow we got during the 2 months I did it was the one that showed above 50% odds from a week out. But it only worked from 5+ days out using 24 hours of ensemble runs...(which is 2 runs of the EPS and GEPS and 4 runs of the GEFS and it was weighted to give the EPS 2x more weight than the GFS and GEPS. If I did it again I would definitely add in the AIFS EPS and weight it similar to the EPS.

Good call There will be better weekends to come ahead

Say bye to snow

We just decided to bail on coming. Between the drive out friday evening and miserable (ski) conditions, we will sit this one out!

when does this begin?

The aifs ens is very snowy again

So I am going to assume the snowfall aspect looked so good there was no need to talk about it anymore which is why all I see is wind chill discussions

I don’t see 4-7 days as anything particularly enduring anyway. 40 or 60 it doesn’t really matter to me. Both would feel like spring. If I were to hazard a guess it’d be between 45-55 for highs for 4-7 days in CT followed by slightly BN temps thereafter with fewer Arctic intrusions as the hemispheric pattern moderates. SSW the wildcard in March.

NBM 13z Feb 5 output Not sure what this is worth and take guardedly for now (at least the distribution of highest amounts that will be pretty dependent on meso features), but it did pretty well with the Jan 25-26 storm... also notable that it has steadily ticked up the past 4 cycles:

yea I'm gonna drive up Sunday to ski Monday with the kids...looks to warm up pretty good by then but this weekend...too cold I think.

That's the other thing ... people are referring to the times as -NAO ? Not sure that applies to next week so much. The fact of the matter is, the -NAO is rising pretty rapidly from now through that period and beyond. Oh wait ...when are you guys talking about ?

@GaWx Could you please share the Euro Seasonal for March if you have it? I keep seeing people crying on twitter that it’s a “torch” but I have yet to see a single image. Just wondering if it’s actually as bad as they are saying?

Its still the same time period and there's still a decent chance of wintry weather IMO. No guarantees of warmth and severe yet.

Last 4 days "warmup" EWR: 2/2: 37 / 15 (-2) 2/3: 36 / 17 (-6) 2/4: 35/26 (-2) 2/5: 32 * so far NYC: 2/2: 35 / 14 (-3) 2/3: 33 / 23 (-6) 2/4: 33 / 26 (-4) 2/5: 31 * so far

I'm with you guys. This way of ranking makes zero sense to me. I saw Paul/Chesco do the same thing with his 20-day snow cover streak. Turning what was really tied for 36th place with 4 other years into the #22 longest streak, so it went from being something that would occur once every three years [probably even more frequent when accounting for missing data - not sure he actually has 132 years of full data] to much more significant. This gets even more ridiculous the further down the line you go as there are more and more tied values. So it's actually 64th longest sub-40 streak (of 157 years), which is barely above the median - meaning it should occur, on average, nearly every other year, maybe more like 2 out of every 5. Ignoring all the tied values catapults it into some sort of significant cold spell. 18th makes it sound like it's nearly 90th percentile (maybe 1 every 9 years or so). One could imagine a scenario where there are three record cold months tied at 18.9F, and the month ends at 19.2F. Why should it be considered second coldest just because the three colder months happened to end tied at the same value? There's no difference than if the three colder months had instead been 18.7, 18.9, and 19.0F.

Shit lol my bad. Comes in presidents day eve

In New England with a -NAO and frigid ocean temps .. I will sell high on any sustained torch . It will do everything in its power to thwart that given the antecedent elements this year

That little batch heading for Randleman looks pretty good. Should then go through Lee and parts of Moore County if it holds together.

Going to be a brutal weekend for those icefishing Deep Creek!

Oh For sure. Nobody said it would last forever. As Don said though, and this has been the take away for this winter so far, the warmth has been pushed at range by models, and it slowly but surely washes out, as we approach said timeframe. But January it did thaw out..no doubt. Other than that, it hasn’t. A few days would be a relief though.

A high wind watch with forecast highs barely cracking 20 degrees. This reminds me of 2013-14 but less snow, more cold.

Zero snow here...what's new?

It depends... Not sure why people can't "imagine" soaring to 60? We've pulled that off at this time of year virtually every time spanning the last 8 of 'em at one point or the other. Just because we've been colder this year - okay... there's value in recognizing trend, but along the entire time we've not had models with red thickness contours as far N as we're seeing in guidance now. Meanwhile, the background tendency to go above normal at least excuse imaginable, relative to leading indicators, hasn't gone anywhere just because we had a couple of cool months. It will correct very fast if given a reason. Snow pack would offset some - but it's not clear how much if a warm front were to ever pass through. Probably a lot of low fog over rapid melt, then the next day it goes up...

Nice little refresher hopefully.

I absolutely do not. Not with all the snowpack in the Eastern US and Lakes and the -NAO / blocking. No way it’s that long or that warm