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3" of snow in my backyard would rank in the top 5 of events over the last 30 years. hard for me to take people seriously when they claim raleigh gets a snow shield if they have that kinda attitude!

It should have been MEEEE

I never had a problem with this winter ..even before this last bigger snow producer. I just figured it for over-achieving on cold alone- I realize the demarcation is based upon snow fall, but that's endemic to this individual and collective psychology in this very niche' social media. We had early blocking ... we had snow threats. Some minor ones panned out. But a bigger event eventually transpiring was a parlay when we had/have a cold biased winter pattern persisting the way we did. Notice also ...we didn't get a bigger deal event until after the N. Pacific corruptive variant of the -WPO plaguing Dec was finally fully vanquished. That was a toxic relationship with that giant narcissistic block, LOL. Anyway, we got back to episodic -EPO bursts and allowed the Pacific to undercut for a coffee break and we get a STJ drive snow bomb out of it. Anyway, even if we didn't get this 15 to 20 incher, we probably would have ended up near normal by the end off 2-3" buck shot adding up over the long haul. So there... normal snow in a cold winter. The problem is... that psychology ^ ... people tend to judge the winters based on weather that they get that psychology masturbated or not. So that's really a different discussion entirely..

We can still get a big storm in the Mid Atlantic; congrats Outer Banks! Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern Outer Banks- Including the cities of Plymouth, Manns Harbor, Manteo, East Lake, Gum Neck, Duck, Kill Devil Hills, Bath, Swanquarter, Roper, Kitty Hawk, Columbia, Aurora, Engelhard, Chocowinity, Stumpy Point, Belhaven, Ponzer, Washington, Creswell, Fairfield, Scranton, Southern Shores, and Nags Head 231 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 16 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph. * WHERE...A portion of eastern North Carolina. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong winds could cause tree damage.

Should be money for the slopes. Id have to believe Beech and Sugar get at least a foot of powder. I am thinking of heading up there Saturday morning, hoping that the long duration powdery snow makes it a pretty managable drive for 4wd/ awd.

i'm pretty bummed to have 2 weeks+ of below, and in some cases way below average temps and still likely come away with zero snow... or damn close to zero.

What allot of people don’t understand is just a 2-4 inch snow is going to cause allot of issues just because the snow that is on the ground from the plows is almost impossible to move in some places.. just that is going to be a major hassle

3" of snow in the S is a snoozer? Interesting.

This is a sounding from south of 40 on the low res NAM...it shows the DGZ fully saturated. But for some reason the lift disappears only in the DGZ (mountains alone would create some lift.) So to me there is an error either in the Sharpy or algorithm. Problem is that model is ingested into the NBM = faulty NBM. Since it seems most offices now solely rely on the NBM...

I'm sensing a theme here as this thing has trended poorly... "moving quickly and entering the back side of the L/W..."

Lower outputs today. Objectively for most. If you’re far enough west and south or far enough east you’re probably feeling good. Everyone else is rightfully nervous. I also don’t have a good feeling at the moment .

It's funny how you never want to be in the best spot too far out because you know it's going to shift. But I'm in the Orange County dry slot and I just know that thing will not budge from here on out. Dreadful.

2/5-2/6 has been showing up so deep winter continues.

I agree, just get this out of here at this point and move on. There’ll be more chances before the cold lets up.

I am starting to have a bad feeling this could be another 1-3 snoozer in Raleigh but we shall see how it plays out. I don't like this feeling right now.

GFS showing a clipper? frontal passage? for the 5th

Owie.

12Z GEFS MEAN went up:

Still not bad .

I'm worried about the thermal conditions we'll see if the storm exists. The 6z Euro AI shows my worry pretty well when looking at the 850mb/wind chart It has the 850 low right over the great lakes and bringing in warm air from the Gulf. While we get some grace by our cold conditions leading in its not like we have a high to the north to save us. Just don't really know what the upside to this storm would be? The CMC H5 vort shows that maybe we could get a storm if we get the pass under us but otherwise I don't think a more negative trough would help us due to the thermal issues it would bring. Just not really enthused about the setup besides maybe a clipper like storm; but even that may just be a mix/rain

When you see the models give you big numbers you gotta keep your expectations in check, and not get to greedy knowing where you live otherwise the actual amount you do get will seem underwelming. Keeping my expectations around the 2 to 4 inch range, and I’ll be happy to get that since I haven’t seen more than 2 inches in years.

I just dont see it. It’s not gaining any latitude and then pushing east.

Ensembles are better at longer lead time to get an idea of the likelihood of a storm, i.e. 40 or 50%. We definitely were in the game a few days ago given the setup. But they smooth things out too much because of outliers and lower resolution so closer in we use the op models and it’s clear now there are a bunch of negative factors getting in the way of a big storm outcome that they pick up on.

anyone else look as close up as you can to these maps and try to figure out how you can get another tenth of of inch of snow!!! It's kind of a hobby of mine. Yep, I think my house is right on that line between 12.3" and 12.9". I'm going with 12.9!! Then the next map comes out and it's says 1.5". You go into cliff dive...noooooo Then the next map is saying 5.8" and 6.9". We back baby....we going with 6.9"!!! It's a rollercoaster. I might be bi-polar as well.

this is starting to feel like our February 2025. The upside is the cold pattern appears to be stable for the next few weeks....more chances ahead. I will enjoy whatever falls.