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  2. Have fun at the lake hope the storms miss down your way.
  3. Wind is blowing and rain dumping in Asheville at the moment.
  4. I wouldn’t be too down about it to be completely honest—with all our super Ninos, whether they were basin wide, east based, whatever—we always needed luck. The way I see it is what many other good posters have said on here, it’s essentially a coin flip as of right now and it’s impossible to tell which way it’ll go until winter arrives
  5. Forecast -NAO is def. more severe this year than 2023, but it was biased to negatively in 2023, and I suspect that is again the case. That being said, this reality is certainly not prohibitive to some intervals of blocking, I just think the model is overdoing it.
  6. Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023. Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.
  7. Made it to 82 but more clouds now
  8. I'm not concerned about that at all. We'll need it the year, IMHO....will be the difference between infrastructure-paralyzing paste and wind-swept sheets of rain. That is absurd for February....like 2010, stuff.
  9. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  10. Let's hope not too much of a typically good thing.
  11. Dang it man...just dang it. I'm not sure we in the central MD/DC part of this forum are realizing what failure this winter means for the next 2-3 years...we'd better pull a miracle or the next big snow can't happen until 29/30 at the earliest. Super nino this year...nina next two years, smh That is not dooming: It is the reality of climo. We need to break the snow drought THIS year.
  12. Im down at Lake Keowee but im keeping an eye on this.
  13. I'm not sure that I characterize much it's leaning into the -NAO as "very much canonical east based Nino". Aug: Sept:
  14. Severe Thunderstorm Watch hoisted for all of Western NC until 8 PM. We've been under the gun with constant heavy thunderstorms the past hour with frequent lightning. This is ahead of the main line moving in near the border.
  15. Showers 3 days in a row! Thank Jesus! * .25" That makes about 1.2" the last 3 days. With the storm the week before (need to look to see what day that was) we're actually in a good stretch here.
  16. I’ll add that the globe is warmer over last 3 years helping to add to the huge increase in >+40m anomalies.
  17. * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern McDowell County in western North Carolina... Madison County in western North Carolina... Mitchell County in western North Carolina... Southwestern Avery County in western North Carolina... Northeastern Haywood County in western North Carolina... Northern Buncombe County in western North Carolina... Yancey County in western North Carolina... Northwestern Burke County in western North Carolina... * Until 130 PM EDT. * At 1242 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Erwin to 13 miles southeast of Greeneville to 3 miles west of Newport, moving south at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
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  19. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  20. ORD had a low temp of 76° yesterday, which broke the record high min temp for the date of 74°(1971/1960).
  21. Chicago/O'Hare had a low temperature of 76° on September 4th, which broke the record high minimum temperature for the date of 74°(1971/1960).
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