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Hoping HRRR and RAP are right but even there high ends seem to be lower than NWS forecasts. moderate snow - 31 - starting to stick on all surfaces

ya was further east but heading north now

Unofficially, about 1 inch at Central Park Feb 22, 12:51 pm 32 30 92 22 ENE 15G24 0.75 Lt snow, Mist OVC007 1016.20 29.86 30.03 0.02 0.10 34 32

I'm hoping.

22,236 miles. Bitch to service.

It's where I grew up so I'm kind of rooting for them lol right near the beaches sometimes it's hard to get snow also-all right no more South Jersey reports lol does sound like the low pressure is getting wound up pretty fast and closer to the coast I'm reading on the other thread so that'could bear well for us with the pinwheel effect later on tonight

Mood right now, haha

From our artificial summary with inputs: HRRR — primary mesoscale driver Best for: Snow band location Snowfall rates (1–3"/hr) Band evolution / pivoting Useful range: 0–12 h (up to ~18 h trend) How to use: latest 1–3 runs only ⚠️ Do not trust storm-total maps HREF — confidence & persistence Best for: Probability a band persists ≥1"/hr rate probabilities Confidence in HRRR signal Useful range: 0–36 h How to use: confirms whether HRRR is real or noisy RAP — temperatures & p-type Best for: Surface temps Rain/snow/sleet/ZR line CAD holding vs breaking Useful range: 0–12 h How to use: hourly temp & wet-bulb trends ❌ Not for QPF or totals NAM 3 km — vertical structure Best for: Warm nose depth Sleet vs freezing rain Soundings & cross-sections Useful range: 6–36 h How to use: diagnose why p-type is changing ⚠️ QPF often too wet

Made the decision to send my wife and kids to mother in laws with a full house generator. Not feeling great about holding on to power here tomorrow with some aged trees on our street.

That's where I am!

HRRR crusher at 18z. And still going strong at this hour.

6z euro and rgem do it too. 3k keeps it going longer. Seems the strong WAA/fronto quickly shifts ENE along the H7 triple point on the gfs/rgem/ec

See that 5 in beautiful Bedford Co? It better get really busy to verify that....Its melting as fast and the flurries hit the ground so maybe we already got 4 lmao.

Snowing lightly now in Port Jeff Station after a little burst earlier. My few exposed grassy areas and shrubs now re-covered. 33.

It'll be like watching the snow blowing off one of the Swiss Alps

38/35 80/20 Rain/snow mix

although it’s been snowing lightly since early this morning it has now picked up considerably so I guess this is the beginning of the blizzard of 26, 29°

All you can do is laugh! What's becoming pretty clear is that a subsidence screw zone is likely to setup somewhere between say @Itstrainingtime and @CarlislePaWx. Question is exactly where but you reside right in the middle of that swath soooooo not great haha.

Even if right, the hrrr is basically different every run. @MillvilleWx I’m surprised there’s no talk of the anemic qpf field given this low. Bombed out too hard? No actual gulf fetch? Seeing some things that say locally this will still do its thing with crazy fgen and good dynamics… but on a broader scale this low isn’t producing the textbook shield we’d see.

Wow, banger February

HRRR trying to curl this sucker north tomorrow morning.

just across from staten island.

yikes

Same here. Coming down pretty hard just north and east of me on Stone Mountain and Wallen Ridge.

I guarantee my total snowfall accumulation will be: ZERO . ZERO. ZERO. Global and any other longterm model spitting out noise and pretty much useless. Meso, HIRES and especially NOWCAST from here on out. Just predict 2ft. and adjust up from there.