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useless outlook, as all winter outlooks are.

So the Euro actually is around avg for the important part but lose ground in April to show the negative anomaly Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

lol...don't look to me Mike. I'm just a weenie, not a trained met. I think it was Oct 2015. Woke up to beautiful blue skies that morning. There was a chance of severe storms later in the day, but it just didn't feel like a "severe day". Sure enough, I (central Montco) was under a tornado warning that afternoon. Hence my "we'll see".

It had a 34 kt radii the other day as a HU down to 30 nm. That's on par for the smallest 34 kt radii HUs in the Atlantic. 2004-2024 avg R34 35 nm or less Jeanne 28 nm 9/16/04 Humberto 26 nm 9/13/07 Michael 35 nm 9/5/12 Lee 30 nm 9/24/17 Beryl 25 nm 7/6/18 Isaac 30 nm 9/10/18 Oscar 35 nm 10/19/24 Only hurricane that comes to mind nearly as small in the EPAC is Kiko from Aug 1989 with a ~45 nm R34, and it was in the same area as Simon (VIS image attached). On Oct 10 at 15z, Simon's R34 was as large as 110 nm in one quadrant. The storm has gained about 6 degrees of latitude since it genesis. So how does a long-lived, intense TC that gained reasonable latitude shrink so much? I read that it proximity to the Mexico coast and the downslope from high elevation just inland was a factor, but many TCs parallel close to the Pacific Mexico coast, and we do not see this kind of reduction in size. Why was Simon different here? Normally, TCs grow in size w/ time from ERCs and latitude gain.

Not here. We grow with wind up . Whole cold shot basically went poof

Slight risk just to the west for tomorrow

Pretty much peak color in the Amherst Northampton area this week. I’ll take some photos later.

No CMC has had any storm close enough to the E coast to have much, if any, effect on the E coast. The Euro has had 2 with it (12Z yest and 0Z today) with interestingly all of the shorter runs in between (6Z/18Z), which go out far enough to tell, having no E coast storm. OTOH, the UKMET’s last 3 full runs have had it and the newest (6Z) suggests it would also have it based on the last map (hour 66). The first Icon with it any effect was yesterday’s 12Z with the 18Z at least a close call. The 0Z was by far the most ominous with it coming back W at the end. It also had it but then the 6Z had it further offshore though it’s hard to tell if it would have come back close enough to have much effect in the NE. I’m guessing no. It appears based on hour 162 that the 12Z Icon won’t have much effect on even the OV.

Or it could be both depending on one’s location, of course. The NC Outer Banks could have large effects with most of the rest of the SE being beautiful.

Not buying it?

If you look at what the euro did, it’s ridiculous at 500. It decides to move a 500 trough that was moving east and just dig it southwest. Thats just beer. A more likely scenario is a coastal low well offshore. That euro depiction was insane.

I think there was at least that in some spots up in the county if you look at the NOHRSC map,

It gets cancelled out if there’s multiple weeks of next to nothing following it. Remember what happened after late May?

Worried about a potential frost/freeze Sunday morning here. That would be slightly early as we usually get to very late October or sometimes even early November here. My peppers and pole lima beans are still producing heavily and will keep going until frost, so I'm hoping we avoid it Sunday morning. After this threat it's going to warm up and it will be quite awhile before we have another frost threat, so it might be worth it to cover the plants if it appears that the frost is gonna happen Sunday morning.

Sunday morning looks calm. Wind chills Saturday but temps in Low 50s. Meh.

Did you forget or ignore the 2-4” we had last weekend?

Deep freeze Sunday morning wind chills as well.

To be clear ... "already" does not = can't happen again. When I said that, it was purely in support of the poster's assertion and this year 'may have succeeded in the statistical suggestion already' - that is/was the context in fair reading... but I would caution anyway - seeing as no one else had mentioned this ... - there are very few or even no ensemble members as amplified or even tolerably similar to that Euro's D8+, 00z range - a range typically proven fantasy as an aside. Lack of support is also true outside of the EPS cluster, U.S. and Canadian punt. Having said that, since there is a climate suggestion for front side warm ENSOs somehow enhancing EC cyclogenesis, and this autumn ...definitely circumstantially applies, wisely it's not impossible. 200+ hours leaves time to modulate other guidance.

Can’t be 100% certain…this year systems want seem to want to hit us. So we’ll see.

Wind threat thus weekend seems to be below any advisories. 25-35 mph stuff.

I LOVE when any team goes up 3-0. Cue the 2004 montages!

I think I saw my lawn grow an actual inch yesterday. I don't want to be mowing on Halloween, what the heck.

Records: Highs: EWR: 86 (1956) NYC: 84 (1956) LGA: 83 (2021) JFK: 82 (1975) Lows: EWR: 32 (1937) NYC: 32 (1876) LGA: 39 (2009) JFK: 37 (1999) Historical: 1608: Evangelista Torricelli, the Italian physicist and mathematician who invented the barometer was born on this date. In 1644, Evangelista Torricelli, built the first barometer with mercury. The aneroid barometer was made first in 1843, the French scientist Lucien Vidie invented the aneroid barometer. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1876: Snow fell on the backside of a coastal storm from Virginia to New England. New York City, NY had its earliest 32° temperature and a half inch of snow. Fall River, MA reported 3.5 inches of snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1880: This was the beginning of what was called the Mid West "Snow Winter of 1880-81". People were trapped in their homes and by the end of the winter it was reported snow was around 11 feet deep. 1880 - A violent early season blizzard raked Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Yankton SD, and snow drifts 10 to 15 feet high were reported in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Saint Paul MN reported a barometric pressure of 28.65 inches on the 16th. Railroads were blocked by drifts of snow which remained throughout the severe winter to follow. Gales did extensive damage to ship on the Great Lakes. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1947: People question attempts to weaken a hurricane by seeding it with dry ice after it made an unexpected turn off the coast making landfall near Savannah, GA with winds of 100 mph. One person was killed. Damage totaled $3 million dollars. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1954 - Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolina coastline. The hurricane demolished every pier along a 170 mile stretch from Myrtle Beach SC to Cedar Island NC, and obliterated entire lines of beach homes. Hurricane Hazel also destroyed 1500 homes as it moved inland with seventeen foot tides. Winds between Myrtle Beach SC and Cape Fear NC gusted to 150 mph. Hurricane Hazel caused 163 million dollars damage, and claimed the lives of 98 persons. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1954: By 11 pm on the 15th, Hurricane Hazel had reached and crossed the waters of Lake Ontario, still sporting sustained winds as high as 60 mph. Hazel took direct aim at the heart of Toronto as it roared past at 49 mph. Toronto saw heavy rainfall before Hurricane Hazel on the 14th. The previous storm, in combination with the hurricane, resulted in significant flooding. 1966 - Iowa experienced its worst late season tornado of record. In just one minute a twister tore through the town of Belmond leveling 75 percent of the businesses, and 100 homes, causing more than eleven million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1984: The Monday Night Football game in Denver, Colorado, was played in a raging blizzard. 15 inches of snow fell with up to 34 inches reported in the nearby mountains. The Air Force Academy canceled classes for the first time in its' recorded history. 1987 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the eastern U.S., with thirteen cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Montgomery AL was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. Lows of 32 degrees at Harrisburg PA and 34 degrees at Parkersburg WV marked their third straight morning of record cold. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - The cold high pressure system responsible for the record low temperatures in the eastern U.S. began to move out to sea, giving way to a trend toward "Indian Summer". Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced golf ball size hail at Altamont KS and hail two inches in diameter at Yates City IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Jerry made landfall at Galveston, TX, at 6 30 PM (CDT). Winds at the Galveston Airport reached 75 mph, with gusts to 100 mph. Tides along the island were six to eight feet, and rainfall totals ranged up to slightly more than six inches north of Beaumont. Three persons were killed when their vehicle was blown off the Galveston seawall into the pounding surf. Total damage along the Upper Texas Coast was estimated at fifteen million dollars. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan during the late morning. Two persons were injured when a tree fell on their camper at the Traverse City State park. While strong northerly winds ushered much colder air into the central U.S., unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. The afternoon high of 82 degrees at Bluefield WV was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005: On this date through the 17th, the summit of Mt. Washington, NH reported 34 inches of snow. The 24-hour record for the most snowfall occurred when 25.5 inches fell in 24 hours. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) (Ref. WxDoctor)

64 / 47 partly cloudy. Cooler today mid 60s in warmest spots we jump back up to the 70s tomororw (mid 70s max) ahead of the 48 cill this weekend with lowest temps since April 30s and perhaps some 20s inland. ig ridge goes north and west with persistent onshgore flow and cut off low off shore, still overall warmer for the period 10/19 and beyond and the days when flow comes around should see more 70s warmer.