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If we can keep the sfc wind direction more S/SE there may be some transient supercells involved. LCL heights are really high though.

12 and 3 km NAM soundings show half-decent spinner potential in VT, but these models tend to overdo it a bit. Small window 4-6pm for Scott supercells in VT.

Satellite is encouraging.v Just made it to the Bennington welcome center

It’s the 2nd round of 4 annual applications. You do one in Napril, one Early Juneorch, one straight fert in Augdewst and then Winterizer in late Octorcher . Each application does different things . Fert is not a one and done lol

I agree that it’s obviously not as strong in 1+2 as 1997 or 1982 thus far. The final result still to be determined, but this event is developing unlike anything we’ve seen since 1997. It is still decidedly east-based From @csnavywx “We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”

Gimme dat

Water's still ice cold. Garmin watch read 56 degrees during our 4 hour surf session at sunrise. I'm still in a 4mm wetsuit.

The signal for development around mid-month has been mixed on the operational and ensemble guidance, but it looks more and more like a CAG will set up and give the chance for some development in the Gulf. Today's GFS, which probably isn't right, would be fun all the way up the coast haha. Drought buster.

69/61...where's my torch

Struggling to reach 80 here.

Summer in Tolland begins on May 1.

15z RRFS shows the classic "cell ahead of line" near RUT. 15z HRRR looks somewhat better that prev runs for the SQLN holding on better farther E.

Isn’t it a bit late in the spring season to be dropping fert ? Especially since you are calling for HHH weather which tends to put our grass into dormancy. I could see it if there were a stretch of cool and wet weather coming, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.

He’s been a warminista for awhile now. He’s a few years away from moving the fam down to SW FL.

No real surprise seeing the models dry up for tonight. Dry begets dry. 87F/DP 66F

all the cloud cover over us and to the west with no storms developing until you get into eastern Ohio will push back any severe potential a few hours past the peak heating times - SPC has no mention of any possible severe watches close to the area as of 1 PM SPC Products Page

Definitely a CoastalWx switch I see. He is leaning more towards having a PT in the warm season w/ time and all the wx phenomena that comes w/ that!

Training showers now. Heat cancel. 71.8/63

The Cape Cod CONS LTG. I am pretty sure it was from a second wave after the 3 tornadic supercells in the afternoon. A few years ago, high quality photos surfaced taken from central MA showing local damage and also showed a very crisp and impressive CB in the distance to the E close to sunset. So that would jibe w/ the Cape Cod LTG.

And WxWiz would pass out from Xtreme ecstasy!

Eastern Mass would lose its mind

More on 97. Here were the monthlies: 1+2 3 4 3.4 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09 1997 7 25.59 3.63 27.90 2.09 29.37 0.47 28.86 1.56 1997 8 24.96 3.96 27.71 2.59 29.29 0.50 28.75 1.89 1997 9 24.69 3.96 27.74 2.84 29.44 0.68 28.85 2.13 1997 10 24.69 3.67 28.06 3.08 29.34 0.58 29.08 2.36 1997 11 26.12 4.47 28.37 3.27 29.39 0.69 29.12 2.41 1997 12 27.06 4.25 28.53 3.30 29.11 0.57 28.89 2.29 1998 1 28.12 3.55 28.74 3.08 28.95 0.64 28.93 2.38 1998 2 28.74 2.64 28.90 2.49 28.79 0.59 28.78 2.03 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)! The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2: Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies: 1+2: 3.9 3: 3.9 3.4: 3.7 4: 2.4 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

Keeping my fingers crossed that we get a much-needed heavy downpour tonight. It has been close to 2 weeks since we've had rain and the ground is bone dry. I'm tired of having to water the vegetable garden almost every day, so hopefully some help from mother nature tonight.

HRRR is around that .25" ish

It didn't have much two weeks ago on Wednesday and we know what happened in parts of Queens and Nassau. WX/PT