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No they arent . Not a huge warmup.

I know this is Mt. Holly... but definitely thought they'd wait one more model cycle URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106- 131000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.251214T0000Z-251214T1800Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon- Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland- Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Sandy Hook, Pottstown, Media, West Chester, Camden, Morrisville, Pennsville, Wharton State Forest, Jackson, Easton, New Brunswick, Freehold, Somerville, Collegeville, Dover, Cape May Court House, Mount Holly, Honey Brook, Glassboro, Perkasie, Hammonton, Norristown, Moorestown, Lansdale, Ocean City, Millville, Oxford, Kennett Square, Chalfont, Denton, Atlantic City, Centreville, Cherry Hill, Chestertown, Flemington, Trenton, Philadelphia, Long Beach Island, Wilmington, and Doylestown 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

That was 12/2…but we know your memory is vague.

Oh yea. Christmas in complete darkness. Sounds wonderful.

A pretty heavy graupel shower is passing through here. Sticking on elevated surfaces

I certainly agree, not asking for a blizzard, just seasonal temps and to not be drinking bourbon on the porch in shorts Christmas afternoon. 2015 and 2021 live rent free in my head. Maybe it’s just me but I love snow and cold. Probably just the years of melting in the heat doing farm and blue collar work. Haha I take all the brisk air I can get. Really pulling for today’s 12z runs of the euro and GFS.

Its ice or Leon

We’d take a huge Xmas icer. All would

Ice? Dendrite says no but man seen that show before.

Model ensembles are all gung ho on a big warmup after the 20th. Hopefully this can end after the new year or we run a risk of punting the first half of January

This is the exact type of event that we’d get to go from what it is now into a low end warning in the mid 2010s. Haven’t had any such luck recently. There is a path to a solid advisory, no matter how small it is

Maybe a similar deal to Dec 01 except 50 miles southeast with rain/ snow line

Euro sticks the bullseye on me. It's about time. Bring it. I'm tired of Short Pump winning and we don't.

Does anyone have a DCA sounding for precip onset time? Is this a cold chasing precip situation? Or are we expecting to wetbulb down pretty quick after precip starts? Surface looks warm.

This model needs to be euthanized now. All surfaces covered. Heavy heavy snow; visibility less than a mile.

Probably assuming the cutter is real. Still some disagreement but I’d be shocked if we didn’t get at least one very mild day. Sunday’s event is just for aesthetics for a few days…we’re gonna need something in the 12/22-12/25 range to get the White Xmas…and it’s possible we could get that…ensembles have been coming around to the idea of overrunning/SWFE potential when looking at the H5 anomalies heading into Christmas Eve.

AI Euro has an event in that timeframe too, looks marginal temp wise though until you get to CNE

It all ends under cloudy skies as you cling to the idea that this time, the Norlun trough will deliver.

True kiss of death on a return to colder pattern is the cold air in Canada getting washed out, dont see any signs as of now.

We can only hope. Upper 40s, low 50s I can stomach. I just hope we aren't stuck in days on end where our low temps are above our average highs. I'm talking about the coldest time of the year, lowest sun angle. I just loathe 60s this time of year. It's unnatural.

"This is the hardest I've seen it snow in years" - typically posted about every 2-3 weeks during the winter, anytime rates exceed one inch per hour

I’d love to see the precip expanded all the way to short pump to feel good about this one. If it did that then NE MD can get PUMMELED

sorry one more EPS post - this is the median. While the ens are obviously less dispersive so close in, it's still nice to see they very strongly agree with the OP (as opposed to yesterday where the 3-5" 12z EURO run was an outlier of outliers)

yeah i'd say Jan 15 - Feb 15. Similar to how July 15 - Aug 15 is the most miserable part of summer lol.

I think outside of the NAM (which is prob safe to ignore for now…maybe by 00z it starts be more useful), the 12z suite was enough to at least give a 1-3” floor for the south coast/Cape. Hopefully we can inch this a little further north.