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Euro also close to interior violence later in the run.

wow, looks like the MLC jumped to the LLC, that was fast. We may be off to the races now, next recon will probably find a much different storm.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ053-054-057-250030- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0013.251025T0600Z-251025T1300Z/ District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-King George- 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Biggest impacts will be outside of city centers, as well as areas further inland from the shores of the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 MDZ004>006-503-505-507-VAZ055-056-505-506-526-527-250030- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0006.251025T0600Z-251025T1300Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Stafford-Spotsylvania-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, and northern Maryland and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

we can only hope!

kinda closer on the EURO but will need near perfect timing

BTW @NEG NAO I also asked ChatGPT to break down the weather data network weather models ingest and to give me a percentage of the data the missed balloons represent. It did an extensive breakdown which is a lot to post, but the missing balloons represent between 0.01% to 0.028% of weather model data. I also researched the typical daily missed balloon launches worldwide for any reason, and that amounted to an average daily model ingestion data gap of between 0.097% to 0.24%. This is for balloon launches specifically. In other words the sky isn't falling.

Man big change at 500 on some models. But just enough SWrly flow to boot Melissa out to sea. But not far from something better.

New around here? We'll be back in 70's by Thanksgiving lol

Agreed....I was just saying.

Models are waffling about how much rain will fall Monday-Wednesday of next week. They are starting to trend further south with the initial upper low leaving some areas mostly dry Monday-Tuesday

I feel like there is a bit too much focus on the NAO anyway...the EPO is a significantly larger factor for driving cold into the CONUS and generating widespread snowfall.

Second morning in a row with heavy frost. Yesterday morning was much colder than expected. Today was cold but was expected.

12zEuro AI and CMC have a coastal

Nothing is “quick” / fast flow as in the teleconnections at the end of the month. This seems like a hiccup in the recent op runs advertising this. There’s a deeply -AO incoming coupled with +PNA and further -NAO conditions. I’m expecting much more northern stream interaction; arctic involvement. When we start seeing snow showing up in guidance for next week in PA and western upstate NY, we’re getting close to the actual outcome…

I am going to be updating my winter ideas over the next few weeks. Normally, I put them out during June and don't change them. But...I think they are going to need adjusting this year! Here are the revisions which I am leaning towards. December - warm Jan - starts warm / ends cold Feb - starts cold / ? Why the change? Well, we are going to likely see a mean trough west of the Rockies through much of November. That immediately resets my thinking IF the occurs. That likely means most of December is warm if we take a 4-6 week weather cycle. That leaves room for a big pattern change again around mid January if not just before. For there to be a cold December, we normally want the pattern flip to occur mid to late November AFTER being warm prior to that. I have toyed with the idea that the entire winter will be warm. I have immense respect for Don Sutherland. To go against him usually means I am left looking foolish, but that hasn't stopped me before! Ha! Weak La Ninas rarely are wall-to-wall warm in E TN. I think there are a small bank of analogs in which that occurred. Almost all cold analog packages for Tenn have some warm outliers - welcome to the Upper South where we live in the sub-tropics -> base pattern in the valleys (below 2500') is rain with the exception of about four weeks of climatology. I would suggest that we see at least one very cold air mass west of the Apps if not more. With the QBO in a favorable state and trajectory...lots of factors point to some very cold weather over portions of the Tenn Valley. We also know that La Nina winters tend to be dry w/ extended periods of warms and crazy cold interludes. I suspect we see that pattern evolve at some point this winter as the base pattern. I started to rethink my winter ideas after reading Larry Cosgrove's ideas that the winter would be backloaded. At first I thought that was completely wrong. Then the Weeklies flipped cold at an earlier time than I was expecting. He may be right.

Only down to low 40’s last night.

What do all the other models do? The Euro? Canadian? UKMET? ICON? JMA? KMA?

I am thinking the same unfortunately, possibly one of the defining natural disasters of the year.

29.7 this morning. Oneida was 29 as well. Tazwell in Claiborne County was 30 and Tri-Cities was 31 and so was Maynardville, Norris was 32. I assume that MRX just decided not to do the frost/freeze protocol this year. JKL and Greenville had appropriate freeze/frost warnings out overnight.

This pattern would translate to a brutally cold, wall to wall winter. Unfortunately, we’re kinda due for it. Gotta get the outdoor activities in while I can.

Who the hell let Ineedsnow hack the GFS Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Bob Maxon from NBC 4 posted about 1 hour ago both the GFS and the Euro with very similar tracks for next week's storm. They said it is coming in a little quicker and it might salvage Halloween

Another freeze warning here in Westmoreland. I thought after the first one they consider the growing season "over" and then no more until next growing season? Can someone educate?

35 for my low which is coldest of season