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Thunder here is Braintree-land. Throw me a meso any old meso will do

Not sure I’d say too early as it could hit as early as SUN PM/mon am .

About to light up with activity here soon.

12Z UKMET: At hour 120, 993 mb Humberto, which is within only 500 miles ENE of 1000 mb 94L, causes 94L (which had been moving mainly NNW) to then get sucked toward it as 94L then suddenly turns SSE, then ESE, and then ENE to well OTS (near 27N, 72W)NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 21.1N 76.5WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 28.09.2025 60 22.2N 76.2W 1006 311200UTC 28.09.2025 72 23.5N 76.9W 1006 320000UTC 29.09.2025 84 24.1N 77.4W 1004 331200UTC 29.09.2025 96 25.9N 78.3W 1004 390000UTC 30.09.2025 108 25.8N 77.8W 1002 381200UTC 30.09.2025 120 26.4N 78.1W 1000 370000UTC 01.10.2025 132 25.4N 77.6W 999 371200UTC 01.10.2025 144 25.0N 76.5W 997 430000UTC 02.10.2025 156 25.4N 74.8W 995 461200UTC 02.10.2025 168 26.9N 72.2W 991 47——————So far at 12Z for major operationals-GFS hits just S of Georgetown, SC, Mon PM (9/29) as a H (with strong support from GEFS, it’s most ominous run by far yet for SE US)-Icon, UKMET, CMC thanks to Fujiwhara go safely OTS from SE US-Euro next-JMA only out to 72 so far (can’t tell yet)

06z is when we are all sleeping (1 am). Rest of the timeframe after 12z is fine.

12z CMC. Combines the 2 tropical storms...

My worry for the NC/SC coast is that this could creep up on them quickly. It's not even a tropical storm yet and might not become a hurricane until getting really close to NC/SC. If it moves fast and has a round of rapid intensification, this could happen just before landfall. This is not gonna be some long tracker we're following for a week.. situations are gonna develop in real time.

ICON and Canadian at 12Z do the Fujiwhara and twirl the system(Imelda to be) around Humberto and out to sea.

We're overdue for a 100-degree heat wave in late August/early September. We haven't had one since 1953.

GFS is a rainstorm I just checked.

GFS dry. Cmc maybe a shower?

One other note that I’ve seen on recent modeling suggests a more favorable pattern for strengthening with a divergent flow aloft and less dry air. Actually somewhat concerned this could be a strong hurricane now. So much has changed over last couple days

I think as Newman alludes to above it's all about the timing. A faster system will be more of a NC/VA threat, the slowest solutions gets pulled OTS and somewhere in between makes that left hook into SC as it feels the pull of Humberto just a little bit. That is the most delicate balancing act so I agree it is probably the least likely.

Bring it!

Rotating storm in W CT

This is more long range speculation, but I do wonder if there’s a chance of remnants or something if the vorticity gets pushed back OTS after the original landfall. 00z euro and 12z gfs hint at it, but obviously that’s weenie range.

Pouring concrete early next week in Howard County. Hope it doesn't rain too much.

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The trend in the forward motion of 94L is perhaps one of the biggest changes in the past day or so. The GFS went from having it buried in the Bahamas late Sunday/early Monday to being 12 hours away from a Carolinas landfall at that same time. This has certainly helped with the questions regarding interactions between 94L and Humberto. Such a faster 94L eliminates really any fujiwhara conversations. But, we are still within the 4-5 day range where I wouldn't take much off the table yet, other than perhaps a northern Mid-Atlantic and New England hit with such strong confluence present up there

Heading to Ocean City after work today for the musical festival. Glad I am packing a poncho, looks like I’ll get rained on occasionally all weekend

I know I should be thankful that there is no longer a direct threat to us from whatever 94L becomes, but boy was I hoping for it. :/

12z gefs mostly into SC or NC, though haven't seen past hr 108

Excited?

Probably 3-5" between yesterday and today.