All Activity

And DEC-FEB is +.5-1C. Very workable with normal precip it is also predicting. Monthly forecast indicates January very close to normal with February, like most Niñas, the most AN.

71 / 67 - cloudy. Clouds will limit any shot at 90 still warm / humid mid - upper 80s, enough sun could get the hotter spots to 90. Cooler Wed, cloudy and isolated showers in the PM/ overnight. Clear out Thu and a great stretch Thu - Sunday - mainly clear, dry and near to slightly below normal. Flow comes around later on the 8/10-11 with a warm - hot / humid and wetter overall. Heat more widespread Tue - Thu next week. Flow still a bit onshore-ish. Tropics activity but overall ridging into the EC, - warm - hot at times , more humid and wetter with frontal boundaries and tropical systems to be watched. 8/5 - 8/10 : Overall near normal - dry 8/11 - Beyond : Warm- Hot - Humid - wetter overall - Tropical activity - heat 8/11 - 8/14 -tropics focus 8/15 onward. (Ctrl + Refresh) to update live satellite loop

The newly released ECMWF Seasonal Forecast for Fall shows somewhat warmer than normal conditions in the Central U.S. The CANSIPS with its cold outlook there is an outlier.

Updated Euro seasonal for August just out off free site. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

August Euro seasonal just out off free site fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

All pools in Philly metro are closed now. Hate to see it.

Well, the rain called/forecasted for late this evening thru tomorrow decided to arrive overnight.... currently 59.6/59.0.

I think the Pacific will continue to be much more important than what the NAO does. The last time we saw a few KU events was back in January 2022 with a solid +NAO pattern. The key was the strong MJO 8 which allowed the Pacific Jet to relax for a month. That was the last time many of us had a cold and snowy month. So we would want to see improvement from the Pacific Jet.

Poor Moregarbage.

With no real heatwave in sight, I'll call these the "happy" dog days of summer. Surely dont expect the respite from swamp ass humidity to last forever, but the back n forth for the next month would be fine by me, as the dog days are gone and the first chances of crisp autumn air showing up will be getting closer. Thats a win for me.

So much summer heat and dews are coming. The general public has no idea of what’s about to hit them

Wish we could lock it

Rip some spinners across SNE too.

Man euro is like 70+ dews perhaps starting Sunday, but definitely Monday through the end of the run.

Just saw that. 60kts off the deck with daytime heating.

There’s no doubt.

6z GFS Would blow down some trees

PA Weather Plus, LLC oprosSentdlacgaa1ha3i3a2u819ml5863lm8mt70hg12ahcgh131a77g0h6 · ** MUGGY METER UPDATE ** It's generally on up from here! Our humidity will be on the increase with our comfort on the decrease as we continue to push through the rest of the week, head into the weekend, and then into the beginning of next week. Next week is looking particularly warm and humid, with increasing dew point values & temperatures climbing into the upper-80s to low-90s, dangerous heat indices will be a concern in the afternoons once again (with daily storm chances). Summer is not over just yet- make the most out of it because we know we will all be complaining in just a few months! See less — in Pennsylvania.

57 this morning...getting warmer.

I could see mid-to late January if we get a bout of early season blocking that receedes around that time, but I think the stronger shot of a major east coast system is late.

I don't foresee that as being prohibitive. ...the ONI will be of course be weak and official La Nina designation dubious, but I think in a practical sense, this particular cool ENSO will ultimately straddle the boundary of a weak/moderate hemeispheric expression.

I think the October Snowstorm did more tree damage than Irene or Sandy

I think there is KU potential in mid-late January, but the wild card is the NAO. I don't think the NAO will stay negative for more than 10 days at a time this Winter.. if it can line up with what I think could be a GOA low pattern in January (if La Nina doesn't go too strong), then we might hit a good storm. If the ENSO subsurface is -4 to -6 during that time though, forget it..

We need a good region wide event.

This makes sense to me....which is why I don't have an issue with a 2022-2023 type of evolution because I think a more pedestrian RNA in a regime like that would yield respectable snowfall. The +NAO anaomaly I feel will be stronger than the -PNA, but I don't think its wall-to-wall, as I am getting some signals for some early and late seasons blocking potential.