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  2. vortex95
    That sharp CAPE gradient (attached) the modeled show ydy has verified well. Notice IAD has 74 Td and HEF 76 Td but DCA 69. 925 mb Td gradient evident as well (also attached). No PWAT gradient though, bull's-eye 2.2+ centered right over DC metro! The cells forming ahead of the line, have to watch those when they cross this gradient as storm boundary interaction is often key for svr/tor. Also, if the gust front fans out well ahead of the line, how will that affect the Td and CAPE gradient? Bodily push it E? Bow echo often ride parallel to boundaries, but slamming into it perpendicularly? I don't know.
  3. weatherbo
    Stayed in the upper 60's all day w/ some drizzle and fog from time to time. Seasonal weather this week with the possibility of a sneaky cool night Wednesday. Point is already 45.
  4. mitchnick
    That question has been tossed around for weeks over in the main El Niño thread. I think we in the MA have started to see it with increased precip over the last month, but there's no evidence of it yet on a larger scale. Rest assured, it's coming...for better or worse.
  5. Terpeast
    Mostly in the southern hemipshere, STJ down there is insane. We’re not quite there yet in the NH but should couple better in the next few months as it cools.
  6. yoda
    Some small storms beginning to fire ahead of the line
  7. yoda
    Might see a few quick weak spin ups as the line interacts with the retreating WF
  8. Eskimo Joe
    This line is booking east. Latest warnings from Sterling have movement at 50 mph.
  9. Mrs.J
    Finally! It has been nice to see green and not brown. Yep I at .62” as of now.
  10. vortex95
    Wow, RRFS not as good for CAD? Given its 3 km resolution (same as NAM Nest) and the RRFS has 65 vertical layers compared to the NAMs 60, that seems odd. Lowest RRFS layer is 8 m "to better capture surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics."
  11. vortex95
    Well, since you posted it @yoda, that gives me an excuse to comment! And it is not merely a rant, it is food for thought. It is a bit odd b/c there is a SVR out now for the county, which was highly likely to begin w/. The SPS are typically reserved for non-svr storms for heavy rain and LTG risk. Also, whether the CG lightning is frequent or not is or should be irrelevant. The risk is still there regardless. So it is superfluous wording really. And "frequent" definition for lightning is questionable as it pertains to wx IMHO. In a METAR, lightning is considered frequent 1 to 6 flashes per min. Is 1-2 per min really "frequent?" And "continuous" is more than 6 flashes per minute. That not what "continuous" really means by its actual definition. It can and does get far more than 6 flashes per min (200 per min at times) enough in many parts of the county often enough that it can clearly be quantified better. How things are said/worded and their context are important. It is what IDSS is all about.
  12. wxmeddler
    The SPC is creating a new Mesoanalysis based on a HRRR DA system. There was a recent SLS presentation about it. No idea! I asked about this specifically in a Q/A... and they provided a written answer! "The NAM is known to perform well for cold-air damming events. A comprehensive assessment of the RRFS’s ability to capture cold air damming events has not been conducted. However, subjective assessments indicate that it likely does not perform as well as the NAM for this phenomenon. This is a development priority for future releases."
  13. Itstrainingtime
    I dunno - that is one vicious line moving through western PA. TOR warned as well. It should weaken some I would think but it's hard to believe we don't get some rain at the very least from it.
  14. Weather Will
    Severe thunderstorm watch until 11 for western and central areas:
  15. yoda
  16. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until 11pm URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Central Pennsylvania Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple organized clusters of storms will likely cross the mountains and generally persist east-southeastward into the region, as the downstream air mass near/east of the mountains destabilizes in the wake of early morning storms and cloud cover. Damaging winds are the most common severe hazard expected, but some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly near an effective warm front. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Altoona PA to 50 miles south southwest of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
  17. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 435 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Garrett County in western Maryland... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 434 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles east of Point Marion to 11 miles east of Brookhaven to Newburg to 7 miles east of Grafton, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Bayard, Bittinger, Grantsville, Loch Lynn Heights, Friendsville, Deer Park, Accident, Redhouse, Hutton, Gorman, Jennings, Keysers Ridge, Mineral Spring, Crellin, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Swallow Falls State Park, McHenry, and Selbysport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. If on or near Deep Creek Lake, get away from the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now. && LAT...LON 3972 7911 3930 7930 3930 7933 3928 7935 3927 7937 3924 7942 3922 7943 3920 7947 3920 7949 3972 7948 TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 284DEG 36KT 3975 7974 3965 7968 3940 7982 3938 7989 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  18. EC609
    Forecasts here were way off today. It's already hit 88.5 with lots of sun.
  19. yoda
    Updated afternoon AFD from LWX DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe weather and flash flooding are possible through tonight. Very active weather is expected over the next 12 hours, with the threat for flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. As of 330 PM, regional radar shows two developing MCSs across western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, both with a history of producing damaging winds. These MCSs are expected to continue eastward into our area over the next few hours. Skies have cleared out ahead of the storms, so strong daytime heating is underway and conditions are destabilizing. MLCAPE values are forecast to increase to around 1500-2000 J/kg ahead of the line, with effective bulk shear increasing to around 30-35 knots. This parameter space should allow these storms to continue across much of the forecast area, leading to a threat for primarily damaging winds. With around 30 knots of 0-3 km shear oriented roughly perpendicular to the lines, a brief QLCS tornado also can`t be ruled out. This threat could be locally maximized as the line encounters a warm front oriented from north to south extending from near Frederick to Fredericksburg. The storms should tend to weaken later tonight as they move east of this boundary into a lower instability airmass. Storms are right on the doorstep of the Alleghenies at the moment, and should press eastward toward the I-95 corridor by around 8-10 PM. Additional storms are also in the process of developing across central Indiana to north central Ohio. Some recent CAM runs hint that those storms may develop into a secondary line that would move through a couple hours after the first round. There are also some hints of backbuilding, especially in the DC Metro area between those rounds as low- level flow picks up behind the first MCS, equaling or exceeding winds higher up in the atmosphere. This results in Corfidi upshear vectors near zero, suggesting that backbuilding and localized training could be possible in the vicinity of the warm front. Thermodynamically, the environment is extremely favorable for heavy rainfall production, with precipitable water values well in excess of 2 inches, and forecast to potentially near 2.5 inches this evening. That coupled with MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and deep warm cloud layers will make any storms capable of producing very heavy instantaneous rainfall rates. That coupled with the potential for multiple rounds of storms, and/or training/backbuilding raises concerns for flash flooding this evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Garrett County, which had a flood event a few nights ago. Another Flood Watch may be considered for the DC Metro shortly, given the above conditions. Storms are expected to clear the area by around 2 or 3 AM, with dry conditions later tonight. Additional thunderstorms may be possible tomorrow afternoon, but coverage of storms is expected to be much lower, and the threat for both severe thunderstorms and flash flooding is expected to be much lower, if not zero.
  20. Weather Will
    WB 18Z RRFS: I guess we will see if the line approaching western MD will bring the goods after sunset.
  21. w1pf
    Spent the weekend in Chatham with a friend who lives there.. we took a walk over to Chatham Bars for a glass of wine.. weather was spectacular..
  22. AccuChris
    0.56” so far on the day in Lebanon. Misty presently .
  23. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    https://mencarevirtual.shop/# MenCare
  24. yoda
    Interesting... Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 410 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 MDZ509-510-162130- Eastern Garrett-Western Garrett- 410 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING GARRETT COUNTY... At 405 PM EDT, radar indicated severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Jefferson Boro to near Cassville to Monongah to near Enterprise. Movement was east at 50 mph. Locations impacted include... Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Bayard, Bittinger, Grantsville, Loch Lynn Heights, Friendsville, Deer Park, Accident, Redhouse, Hutton, Gorman, Jennings, Crellin, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Swallow Falls State Park, McHenry, Big Run State Park, Piney Grove, and McComas Beach. This includes Interstate 68 in Maryland between mile markers 1 and 30. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this line of storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. If you are on or near Deep Creek Lake, be preapred to take swift action to get out of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle as storms approach. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
  25. Today
  26. Eskimo Joe
    Also a heavy precip disco for our far western posters:
  27. Eskimo Joe
    Definitely looking like a non zero tornado threat west of US 15 this evening. Mesoanalysis and mesonet data showing some nice backing of winds and surge in dews.
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