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Still trending on the 00z.

0z AIGFS has 2 snow threats. One starting at 210hrs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=210 The other threat starting at 288hrs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=288 Unfortunately, neither Tropical Tidbits nor Pivotal have pretty surface maps showing snow, only precip. But if you use those TT links and look at Pivotal 850, 925 and surface temps, it's snow, or rain to snow depending on exact location.

In a word...blocking. See JI's post above.

0z euro is acceptable

The Euro bombs Northern half of NC and most of Virginia with a monster New Years snow, due to a clipper that rains on us and goes full Miller B on them, after it develops off the coast it spins in place giving them a mega storm. The GFS looks like it may have been loading up to send something our way by the 3rd. Too far out to take seriously of course, but possibly a sign that the NAO is working a bit and use getting scraps while east of the Apps would fit in with the pattern we've seen as far as precip goes.

Trash night too

Heads up, there's black ice out there right now. Be wary on the roads.

Thought the same last night when it was 29°.

Not saying it's right but the 0z euro run would make many happy if it actually happened. Long duration event for sure.

I had a mental breakdown trying to understand the 0z Euro.

No chance ORD finishes at -6. Something like -3 or so is more likely to be the final departure, maybe even -2 if we get a few super warm days.

We haven't had a clipper in my area in a long time. Many years.

I'd take an inch for Christmas. That would be cool!!

Yes I know. Was a poor attempt at humor lol

Would be real nice is this verified lol

it's wild how warm 40's feel after the very cold month or so.

I'll throw in for 2014-2015. 2010-2011 got the deepest, but 2015 was a close second. Plus we had drifts out back into April.

The ridge/trough orientation has just sucked for basically the entire forum. Especially the west side. It's been cold and mostly dry. We got clipped by a couple of clippers in the East. If the ridge had been oriented into a +PNA configuration, those clippers that buried the Midwest to Virginia would have been rolling across Tennessee. Northern Kentucky has gotten hit a lot. Louisville Kentucky already has about a foot in the first 15 days of met winter. With a +PNA that would have had that active northern stream, which is common in La Nina, over our forum area.

Seeing as one of those January days had a low of -2...yep, sounds like it, lol Ya had only 4 days the entire month get to 40 degrees! Snowfall, on the other hand...was 8.5"...and we only measured a trace for the rest of the season. Oof...and seeing as the next year was a Niño, I wonder if 1976-77 was indeed a dying nina like this one seems to be. Rather paltry results in the snowfall department...and February torched as you'd expect, lol Anybody got what they indices (AO/NAO/PNA) were that winter?

Not enough blocking to get it done on the GFS. Its going to be tough to get the snow down this way for a couple weeks with that set up. but we know it rains on Christmas. As I say you can se your watch to it.

All of the mid-range guidance through day 7 has the thermal boundary too far northeast for us to have much of a shot at snow. Out to day 10 isn't much better. I hope it changes. It's a pretty ugly and repetitive looking longwave setup that would seem to favor New England for snow chances. But it doesn't exactly look warm either after Friday and the real cold is not too far off. But it's sure no fun looking at a huge stagnant ridge over the central US.

Here in jackson we haven't seen any snow or ice yet. I hated thar we had too much nw flow, but that's how it is sometimes. Hoping mother nature will throw a little winter weather sometime in the next few months

Bring the rain. The drought is still pretty bad up here and we’ve had nothing soak in recently.

The gfs has done an outstanding job of sniffing out these storm cycles this year. When I’ve seen that darker blue precip shield sitting over the northern greens for 18-24 hours on a nw flow flow show up for 3-4 runs in a row, you can almost lock in an 18” upslope party every time so far this year. Even at a 3-4 day lead time. .

This is most helpful. Thanks for the clarification on what is considered a trace. It also confirms my suspected conversion factor was pretty much spot on: 5280 T = 1 in. .