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If I get 0.25" of rain from this I'll feel lucky. Whatever this is, it is a far far cry from heavy Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Afternoon run of the Euro would make me sweat a bit if I'm a coastal resident.

Poor Ditty…wrong again.

Sneaky severe day today: Surface CAPE 3,000 + across most of the area LI -6 or better east of US 15 High PWATs w/ some mid level drying to aid propagation of isolated wet microbursts. Surface lapse rates are decent Might see a few decent cells fire along some boundary.

OP is an outlier AWT...but the spread is insane

Radar looks better for your area than mine

12Z Euro says it aint gone just yet. Still a long shot though

some models were trying to show a cutoff.. I guess we wait and see how this plays out but I'm liking the trends

Last winter would have been a real nice one if the early January and late February events didn't skunk at the last minute.

we watch!

I can’t. I just can’t.

MJO forecast euro

The past two winters here in the lowlands have had some nice extended snowpack. Especially last season. I had more snowpack days in January and February than not. I had snowpack the entire month of January just about. Let's do it again!

I see CT is doing its thing by actually getting thunderstorms.

93 degrees, windy but now a hot wind! Hoping these storms maje ut to nenj.

92 / 69

I won’t get a chance to wash my car today, so expect the storms to miss Staten Island

Big shift West on the EPS as well

I agree, if Erin can get going...she will take off.

I'm just chewing on that run. I want to see some ensemble support. That said, you can see how quickly things go from well OTS (Newfoundland exception) to a very close approach with changes in the pattern over the US and Canada. The big ULL doesn't drop down as aggressively, the retrograding ridge over the US kind of meanders, and that allows the Atlantic ridge to push the door a little more. 00z 12z Now of course, because there's no cutoff in the GL region this eventually gets kicked, but that was modestly intriguing. SHIPS does foresee a better environment further west, and the organization of Erin is pretty good for its current intensity. I think it could really pop once it's able to get enough of a convective burst to get the engine going. That said, convection continues to fire on the southern side of the storm and the track continues to come in ever so slightly south of forecast. I still think a NE impact is fantasy land, but the door for a closer approach is not fully closed. Honestly, and this is also forever out, Erin could be good for a PRE somewhere depending on how that trough eventually evolves. Just food for thought. Also, this looks like a possible threat to Newfoundland. Been saying that for days now lol.

And that would be similar to the euro ai and icon solution.

Its 4 days with the possibility for more so not bad imo

I will be willing to bet the euro OP is of the most western outlier when it comes to the EPS. but I will be curious to see what the mean is on the Euro. We may see some heavily skewed west members but willing to bet this is a major outlier

93/73/102 Why did the unnecessary flood watch talk about 6 inches of rain..can I ask the modeling for that

91.2° 3rd straight 96+ for CON