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the SPC does mention derecho...nice

It will be NYC south . As usual

Still think that’s a little too out there in terms of accuracy. The environment is marginally better, if that, but the background state is still pretty hostile.

Seems like a tendency for N?NNE flow a bit Mon/Tue kind of on /off on the models.

I picked the right time to travel here lol

84 / 72 rising quickly. Heat is on the next 84 hours. Mid - upper 90s today, mid - upper 90s tomorrw (100 in the hot areas), same for Wed , pending on clouds. Thursday race to the front / storms and clouds but looks topped in the 80s. Storms and slow moving boundary could produce strong storms and local flooding where the line sets up between Thu AM and Fri PM. Behind the front a period of cooler - mainly onshore flow the first week of next month. Ridge rebuilds into the middle of the country and expands east - rising heights and a more southerly flow by the 8th transitioning to a warm-hot / humid period. 7/28 - 7/31 : Hot / Humid - Storms focused on Thu-Fri could be locally 2-4 inches 8/1 - 88 : Cooler - Onshore - drier overall 8/8 - beyond : Warm - Hot / Humid wetter overall

Environment doesn’t look conducive. AI is probably latching too much on climo and a marginally more favorable environment. Emphasis on marginally. I was just coming to post about it. Euro has been consistent with the setup. This we watch. 99.99% fantasy. AI is not yet competent imo in marginal environment tropical cyclone genesis. The regular ensembles barely have a signal if you can even call it that.

Is that some sort of very weak backdoor that rolls through tomorrow evening? Or maybe just a weakening front that probably lifts north a bit Wednesday as a warm front.

What a look for early August.

Board burnout seems cocky and confident on 7"

I'd have very low confidence in the end of the week. How all this convective potential evolves from the upper-Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is going to play a significant factor in how this evolves for us.

Most of Iowa didn't get much. It was mostly gusted-out weak crap as the cold pool dove into the humid air. Tonight may be the same -- strong up in SD/MN, but dying remnants down here.

I’m not sure I buy it that far north though.

KSNC 82/73 at 8:35am....off to the races.

MAV 97 for BOS tomorrow, MET 92, and NBM 95. A quick look yields that BOS certainly has a shot for 97 tomorrow...would not be shocked at a 98

Can't wait to we start getting sunshine and crank up the sweatiness.

It's always a promising sign when the day dawns in thick fog while the temperature's over 70 ooph

As expected, the big storms up in southern Minnesota raced south across Iowa overnight and fell apart. We got some moderate wind, but very little rain (0.20). The initial line was almost dry. It looks like tonight may be a repeat, with storms falling apart as they dive southeastward.

Stms didn't form around here yesterday. But the lower humidity this morning feels really nice.

wow NYC had many of these back in the day..... that was some amazing extreme heat between 1944-1966

JFK: 1983 NYC: 1944, 1949, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1966

CoCoRaHS confirms we were the jackpot. 1.85” at closest report.

The southern tier again. I joked about it in yesterday's video (not uploaded yet) about how someone sprayed storm repellent over the eastern coal region, and how most of the big storms are south of I-78...lol

to be fair, I'd much rather lower the amount of water vapor in the air (before it reaches the saturation point and causes floods) and turn it into drinking water, that would have multiple benefits.

it's good that I don't see any sign of smoke today just deep blue skies