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Annual pond skip yesterday at the ski hill for closing day. Always a good time. Sun came out and warmed us to the low 50s for a fantastic final day on the slopes for winter 25/26. I got 24 days on the snow this winter. Lutsen is open through at least May 3rd so I still have options to get on the snow one more time since everything out west is toast.

And up to 45 now. Soon as the sun comes up that cold goes poof.

You have to be playing a persona, right? Because you can't just go on to say this and then go on to IMMEDIATELY post this it is beyond parody.

Still ice here in N ORH if you know where to find it! Definitely the last day though.

The SW heat ridge/drought started in 1995, and 1998 is when the -PDO began.. that SW pattern is amped max right now. I personally think we are still in -PDO general and the Southwest pattern also goes with +AMO. Solar Max may have changed things a bit though. I've looked at what 2 cold NE Winter's in a row means for year 3.. it's neutral, 50/50.

bdgwx just keep on cherry picking - you will always get the anwer you want!!

I think there are other factors that made 92-93 through 95-96 colder.....volanic impacts vary greatly depending on location. Yea, IDK....I find it hard to believe the N Pacific is going to maintain -PDO for a third consecutive El Niño and revert back to cold west/warm east configuration.

Poor Cobalt!! Little does he seem to know.....

If this is true, then I hope they build a few data centers around Tamaqua. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2521256-ai-data-centres-can-warm-surrounding-areas-by-up-to-9-1c/

Impressive activity ITT so early with already page 12 while still in March! How does this compare to when prior ENSO titled annual threads reached page 12? All of these started in Feb: 2025-6: well into April 2024-5: May 2023-4: April 2022-3: can’t find 2021-2: September So, 2026-7 is the most active of these so early thanks in part to the anticipated amazingly strong WWB, which better happen this time or else…

Sometimes there are anomalies.. 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 were cold Winters and the volcano should have made 91-92 lean colder.. a west-based Stronger El Nino. Sometimes it just doesn't go according to probability. It was also during +PDO general. I think the N. pacific subsurface is pretty important, so even if the short term PDO wanes/waxes the thermocline holds a longer term state.. bluewave has shown those N. pacific subsurface anomalies are record breaking warm right now, so I think -PDO tendency is probably favored until we see some consistency the other way there.

I had a 31 inch storm in 2016. But I agree.

Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there.

The Winter US Temp pattern is like this coming El Nino has been building for 2 years.. At +3std's 2 cold Winters in the NE/Warm SW and Rockies precede an El Nino temp pattern year 3

Just to be clear, I am NOT suggesting that a RONI over 2.0 cannot materialize....I just do not think that it will. However, too early to rule anything out.

I don’t have it going later than 3/17. I got that 3/1-17 from another source as I didn’t produce the map. Of course, the full March will be warmer. Example (looking at Phoenix): 3/1-17 was +9 but 3/1-31 should be ~+12. I know where to find the lower 48 map after the month is over. Where can one get the up to date month to date map?

I saw on a show a long time ago that the huge natural aquifer out in the Plains is being quickly depleted by all of the crop irrigation taking place. So water issues may arise out there someday if that's true.

Don’t forget urine evaporating off the pavement.

I have said it before, but I will be STUNNED if we pull do go on to have a bonafide El Niño AND the -PDO persists....I just don't see that happening. It will be interesting to dive into which El Niño seasons were very mild across the east in the absence of a -PDO and Uber-strong intensity. I think it may be a relatively short list of awful winter seasons with a RONI below 2.0 and +PDO.

Summed up perfectly.

Just think about those long DD lines in the cruiser in July. Surrounded by concrete and dews near 75°. The smell of pigeon droppings and rotting rats in the sewer baking in the mid afternoon sun. The sky full of exhaust and haze.

Hopefully the prefrontal precip shown on some of the models for Tue morning pans out, as it looks like the late day convection will be another miss southeast. Luckily a nice wet system looks to be on the way for Thursday.

I agree concerning the pattern of stagnating patterns....I've noticed that, as well. Obviously if the data continues to support it, that's one thing, but at this early juncture I reman skeptical of an uber El Niño in such rapid succession with 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. If this winter is a mild, it's going to have to be due to the warm ENSO overwhelming because I just can not envision reverting to the cold west/warm east configuration of the 2020s with he tropical Pacific moving the direction that it is.