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Merry Christmas everyone! Hopefully the changes we see going forward will work out for the entire forum.

Gross

SREFS look like they went north a bit too. We’ll see what the 18z globals do but this trend doesn’t feel like it’s stabilized yet.

Warning snows to Saratoga springs with advisory snows to Lake George. That's rarely good for us. We don't blindly follow the NAM, but we shouldn't ignore a multi-guidance trend. Good thing is the NAM is still cold enough for frozen precipitation for many areas even if the focus of heavy precipitation is north and there's more sleet now. It also would end as snow showers.

There's not one other model that has jumped as far north as the nam, the jumps in the other models have been far more subtle. With that said, the north trend is a common occurrence so I would expect at least a nudge north by the other models and for the heaviest snow to go further north. Still, a 2-4, 3-5 inch storm for the immediate metro is nothing to scoff at.

This time, I’m cool with that.

we still have another day for north shifts

It has virtually no support by any of the 12z GEFS and EPS ensembles.

Relax and walk away for a while.

Nam is a horrible model. Throw it out unless the other models move to it.

You should see some teleconection sorta speaking of where of MJO will be for the next several days even tho its into the COD upcoming

Northern areas arent going to see sleet

The problem is all other guidance has been shifting north, focusing the snow northeast of the NY-NJ border. And we're squarely in the short range now. That makes it more difficult to dismiss.

Anyone who freaks out over the NAM should be banned

Going to go aggressive with this one. Essentially 5-10 for western CT, 4-8 for central CT out to Tolland, and 2-5 in eastern CT.

We’re hanging out around the (closed) pool at our friends’ place. It’s super nice out!

Lmao, What a garbage model. Even shunks 40 miles north of the City

Yea no other model has the low that north. Throw it out.

It’s Christmas. Yall are adults. Moderate yourselves

Lol

Dont fall for it. Nam does this all the time.

Im not because its garbage and an outlier.

No good on the 18z NAM. Not what we want to see at all.