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They looked like a bunch of wet floor signs--and consequently they slipped over the Packers

catastrophiccravings @

Impressive explosion of the pink colder colors. Starting to see those outflow striations.

Some know.

Didn't he make the same prediction last year?

Melissa on that bad bitch status. Go to fucking work!

I’m afraid the window of ERC is over. The fact it underwent the MERC earlier today was just bad timing all around for Jamaica. At some point tonight or tomorrow, when Melissa turns north, coastal friction will induce intensification that will also cause Melissa’s eye to contract and tighten. This will prevent an ERC on landfall approach.

Probably perfect timing. This is peaking in satellite appearance. We’ll see if observational data concurs. Unless there’s a slow ERC or this ticks further west or east than expected, I am finding it increasingly hard to believe there won’t be a category five strike.

At first glance at sat imagery (if I knew nothing else) I'd have guessed it's a cat 5. Perfect symmetric buzzsaw that is the CDO.

Huge burst around the center just now. Yikes.

Yeah I read the discussion from the NHC and there was absolutely no mention of shear or undercutting or even fluctuations. They seem to think she is about to bomb to a Cat 5 and they are forecasting landfall at that intensity.

The next recon plane just took off from Curacao and will be in the eye in a couple hours.

I was just going to post. Just a big burst around the eye and core in the last few minutes. There is another flight that just took off. It’s heading in at the right time..

big 'un

This is very sad and terrifying to see knowing that Jamaica is in the crosshairs of this monster. Hopefully something unexpected will change things at least a little bit for the better before landfall. Any weakening would be quite welcome obviously.

Things are looking good for the things aren’t looking good for Jamaica camp

Insane last half hour or so on IR. Complete ring of -80s wrapping around now https://x.com/wX_nvck/status/1982645615374082373?t=IhnzuFVyTW0CM-DjZO-Ndg&s=09

Melissa is full nuclear now. All previous signs of an ERC rapidly disappeared after recon hunters flew out. It’s like a switch went off. Absolute nuclear….cloud tops rapidly cooled to -93 degree Celsius. That is extremely unprecedented in the Atlantic Basin. Infrared imagery is jaw dropping right now. Everything I’m seeing on satellite and infrared imagery points to a high-end cane making a run at sub 910mb pressures. Lightning is impressive and very rapidly spiked in the NE/E quad of the eyewall. Really wish we had recon flights enroute.

11:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 Location: 16.3°N 77.5°W Moving: W at 5 mph Min pressure: 933 mb Max sustained: 145 mph

This webcam over the hill in Island Park is pretty fun to watch. In the winter they set up a 7 foot tall ruler so you can see the snowdepth at any time. IP's longterm average is about 210" but lately (since 2000) they seem to be averaging more like 240". https://highmountainadventures.com/live-cam

DT Preliminary Winter Outlook

DT Preliminary Winter Outlook

38 in Muttontown & 40 in Syosset.