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Hurricane Erin: 105 MPH - 945 mb - NNE @ 17
WxWatcher007 replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
An immensely powerful hurricane -
You haven’t had lack of rain
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Falmouth not so much
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Same here. Usually, my site radiates better than yours - maybe a bit of breeze last evening here? Absolutely beautiful today, 73° when I got back from my knee-exercising walk at 3 PM, almost 3/4 mile - taking it bit by bit. Looked at what my new neighbors - 3 families, dad, 2 sons, families - have been doing this summer other than burning powder at the big (200' by 100') old logyard. Even at 800' thru the woods the noise is serious, though it's mainly 9 mm pistol. Only a few .223 cases and 12 ga. buckshot hulls, also 3 well shot-up pieces of plywood. Maybe they can push a deer to me while I'm sitting next the sled trail thru our woodlot this coming Nov.
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Lack of rain and a couple cold nights will do that
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2025 Spring/Summer Mountain Thread
Maggie Valley Steve replied to Maggie Valley Steve's topic in Southeastern States
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0966 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 243 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 211845Z - 220045Z Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will expand across portions of the Southern Appalachians through this evening. Rainfall rates at times may reach 3"/hr which could overwhelm soils, especially in sensitive terrain. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...The GOES-E experimental day-cloud phase micro-physics RGB this afternoon shows a rapid uptick in ice-bearing clouds suggestive of strengthening updrafts into Cbs from NW NC through central GA. These updrafts are associated with deepening convection, and there has been a recent uptick in lightning detection within these storms. This suggests that the environment is becoming increasingly favorable for thunderstorms containing heavy rain, as thermodynamics continues to intensify reflected by PWs measured by GPS between 1.6 and 1.9 inches, around the 90th percentile for the date, overlapped with MUCAPE as much as 3000 J/kg. Despite the relatively recent growth across the area, radar-estimated rainfall rates have already exceeded 1.5"/hr according to KGSP. As the aftn progresses, the CAMs are in decently good agreement in both coverage and placement of activity. It appears likely that convection will become widespread as PWs surge to above 2" outside of the higher terrain. This will support rain rates within thunderstorms that will likely exceed 2"/hr (HREF neighborhood probabilities above 30%) and may reach 3"/hr at times as reflected by HRRR 15-min rainfall above 0.75" in a few locations. Storms that develop will be of the pulse variety in response to limited bulk shear, but will also move very slowly on 0-6km mean winds of just around 5 kts. This indicates that despite the relatively short lifetimes expected of any individual cell, total rainfall could reach 2-3" in some areas, and this will be most likely where any boundary collisions, storm mergers, or terrain influences can impact the relative strength and motion of these storms. Soil moisture across the Southern Appalachians is generally well above normal as reflected by NASA SPoRT 0-10cm percentiles that exceed 98% in many areas. This has reduced 1-hr FFG to as low as 1-1.5" in some areas, for which the HREF exceedance probabilities peak above 25%. This is in addition to the general sensitivity across this area due to the terrain, as well as within any urban areas, so any slow moving thunderstorm could produce impacts due to flash flooding through this evening. Weiss ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK -
Now it's drizzling and raining. Is this shit ever going to clear out?
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Mid to long range discussion- 2025
WinstonSalemArlington replied to wncsnow's topic in Southeastern States
How has this summer verified relative to the summer outlooks issued last spring? Did anyone predict this longrange? -
2025 Spring/Summer Mountain Thread
Met1985 replied to Maggie Valley Steve's topic in Southeastern States
Downtown Asheville is getting hit hard currently. -
2025 Spring/Summer Mountain Thread
Met1985 replied to Maggie Valley Steve's topic in Southeastern States
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Had my fracked yesterday and pushed up HP by 1/4 horse. Consistent 60 psi now. Frack rig weighed 40k lbs, very impressive operation.
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Take the whole COC and deal with it.
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Lots of chop
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Hotter days and less precip these last 2 mos, It was a good run, But i'm ready to move to fall.
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Yep. It was a great summer for swimming in it, but it is drawing to a close. Much better than last year.
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Unless you have a solar blanket, Temps really fall off at night now and you lose ground.
- Today
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Only 65 here. My pool…
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Yes, I noticed that on the beach with blowing sand. Please take a video and post it if you can.