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Nice graphic. Hard to envision a hurricane coming out of this but a wet TS affecting portions of the Gulf coast is seems a like a reasonable expectation at this time.

Areas justtttt to the S/E of me have had the better rains this summer, but looks like MBY got some of the heavier rains this time. 1.43” this weekend. Really good start to the month.

Yeah, but they have so many positive things happening? They are beating the spread for the game in the 1st half.

Ravens have about as many penalty yards as offensive yards

The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters (CPC).

NAO has a pretty good opposite correlation between October and the Winter. It's the only month of the year where that is true! Actually since "discovering that" in 2005, it's flipped 13/22 times - monitoring it future-tense vs past-tense. The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters Lowest NAO Winter on record, 09-10, had a +1.51 Oct NAO. The Pacific usually holds the same pattern between Oct and the Winter, although sometimes in El Nino's the EPO flips historically, not sure if that's true over more examples.

‘23 JJAS PDO -2.4 ‘26 JJAS PDO -1.2

Perfect autumn weather

23-24 is a good analog because we don't have enough data! I think you're the one who posted about every Strong+ El Nino since the 1800s having positive or neutral PDO until 2023. The PDO has surprisingly high correlation number with US conditions historically. For the whole year it's almost the same as ENSO! Giving ENSO 0.55 and PDO 0.45 makes 23-24 the best analog since the 1800s, not to mention that since 2012/2013, recent analogs have worked much better than far-away ones.

The STJ should start ramping up as we go deeper into Autumn.

@tamarack Helped my wifes uncle close up their lake cabin this weekend near Morristown, NJ. Some impressive tree damage from that July 3rd storm with lots of local reports of 75 -80 mph winds. Almost all the damage was red oaks that split around 25-50 feet up. There is a lot of old growth trees and tons of 100+ year old giant Tulip Poplars that didnt even loose a branch.

Really sorry about your loss. My condolences to you. This reminds me of when my Dad passed away in 2018.

First flakes in the forecast. Won’t be up to check lol

lol the ball will slide nicely on the frozen grass

A week out

Today’s aren't out yet.

Fall heat wave with approximately 17 deg F above normal coming up for northern Colorado.

Weeklies?

Nice coastal storms on the gfs

Sorry to hear about your loss. My condolences @RickinBaltimore

-2023 isn't a great analog because 1. its RONI peak of +1.4 pales in comparison to where 26 is headed and even where it already is 2. It was much less E based (cross between E based & basinwide) than 26 is progged to be 3. The only similarly strongly -PDO of any Niño of the last 150 years was 1951-2 and it’s RONI peaked at only +1.0 ————— -2019 is hardly an analog because it wasn’t even El Niño as it peaked at only +0.3 and was W based ——— -2018 isn’t a good analog because it peaked at only +0.8 and was slightly W based ———— -2015 is the only of these that’s a good analog but it was pretty much basin-wide, not E based https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

Was gonna respond to this with a plot I did years ago showing how the 500mb pattern over the east often reverses from October to DJF (eg east ridge winter after troughing in oct), but the plotting tool I’m using seems to be broken and I don’t have the time to try another tool. I also hadn’t broken it down between la nina and el nino years when I did it back then. What I meant was not only october snow, but the bigger picture of the overall pattern. But without the plots, I can’t make that case now. Oh well.