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And he's the one telling people in SNE to move

Ten storms 20"+ is impressive. Our locale averages nearly 90"/season but only 7 events 20+ (plus 19.9" on March 7-9, 2018). Only common events were Dec 2003 and Jan 2015. Even your 15 storms of 16"+ is one more than here (and only adds March 13-15, 2018 as common), though we've had 4 more of 15-15.5". I've noted that big snowstorms are similar whether in NNJ where I grew up and any of the Maine locations where we lived. Even in Fort Kent, which averaged 134"/season in our 9.7 snow seasons there, had only 3 of 20+ and 6 of 16+. They had loads of the more modest events, though, 24 of 10"+ and 63 of 6"+. In our 27 winters here, it's 47 of 10+ and 117 of 6+.

300-400 mile move in 24 hours....though the possibility was always there due to the massive spread on ensembles. But there's a reason a few days ago I mentioned that 1/15-16 would be all gravy if we got it....it was a very thread-the-needle type look if there ever was one to use as an example.

Jesus, better move to Barrow. I think 5/5 would be nice.... 1/1 spring and fall, assuming its deep winter.

The GFS and GEFS have performed poorly for our local area for the past few wintry potential threats. I know local performance is highly variable and somewhat random, and I haven't seen updated verification scores, but I do wonder if the brain drain that started at NOAA/NCEP around 2016 might be finally catching up to us.

Agree Gfs was the only model to show anything big.

Is it really unbelievable? It never was much of one. It had next to no ensemble support from any model. If there was no GFS head fake the "event" would have had very little attention to begin with.

Honestly and truly, this guy is a complete joke. His whole premise was always to blow things into the stratosphere. All of his words consist of " HUGE, ARCTIC OUTBREAKS, BLIZZARDS, ". I'm not saying this guy is impassionate, but man, he is definitely one of those people on social media that cause a frenzy to most people who have no idea what's going on

That was the implication from the start from Dr. Dewsh. Glad i never got invested in this thing at all, never stood a chance imo. And it's going...going...gone! It's outta here! Way over the green monster into the parking lot behind the trees down the sewer and into the atlantic The ens mean cut back from 1-2" to just a few tenths for this first system yet the total run mean has increased quite a bit, so thats good. GEFS/GEPS are similar

Alot of hypersters that call themselves meteorologists on youtube.

we're tracking rain/snow showers, even better

I say 10 months of winter and 2 months of spring.

Well.... I'm sure TT is laughing his butt off. He knew what he was doing when he made this post. He gets his rocks off by digging in and trying to set people off.. LOL.

Reminder that the 15th was a Rainer until this past Friday.

The NH Golf Mid-Am is at Mt. Washington first week of October. Should be like playing in Scotland.

Changed the title to major shit storm?

This accurately describes me. Hand up. I admit it. The cold drives me nuts as I am getting older. Sun setting at 4p and the inability for the atmosphere to actually snow are driving me insane. Indoor golf just doesn’t really do it for me. Lol

lol its too bantery y'all. I agree with the doom and gloom and can kick and kick in the crotch but unless its weather related put it in panic thread or banter. thanks!

This is such a terrible hobby.

Yeah, I'm not even talking about CC... Even in 1888 we would've been cold relative to all, given the circulation mode of this two-month journey. I was just commenting that it isn't really a mystery why we are cold and dry in and of itself. The whole canvas of that? yeah, it is interestingly contrasting. Whether that is a part of GW/CC or not, that product suggests we've had it really really good as winter enthusiasts. Because it seems like nowhere else has had much of a chance at all HAHAHA. how ironic. Obviously, snow is the primary voter issue around this public arena, notwithstanding so ... sure, boned just the same.

I was referring to the 0Z Euro op that you had commented on when I said it had the extreme rarity of snow for nearly all active SE members. Not surprisingly because of that rarity, the 6Z 144 Euro vs 0Z 150 Euro showed that was going to be taken away from many had that run gone out further. Also, the 6Z EPS at 144 also looked worse than 0Z EPS at 150.

The second half of January is gonna be rockin'! The last week of January is gonna be rockin'! The first week of February is gonna be rockin'!

I've always said and felt this... Once we enter the -AMO phase (which I believe we're beginning to move into), if we're continuing to see shattering temperature records and continuing the theme of hurricanes taking off and undergoing RI...then we're in a real cause for concern.

@mattie g will appreciate the above. Moving on to the AO, it looks to make a deeper negative dive. PNA after spiking not really looking too bad, as for the NAO, neutral but would not be surprised if it trends negative late month. Snowfall oppurtunities will be there, however, needing extra patience in a Nina, even if we are about to flip to a Nino soon.

That 55% prediction is not very useful without the associated uncertainty. Even if the statistical method used for the sensitivity analysis is sound, there is presumably a large spread considering our lat/lon and the variability of the underlying factors/predictors. It could plausibly end up well above or well below normal for the month.