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Yeah, RRFS crushes DC SE

You begin to wonder if it starts snowing predawn Saturday and just continues into Monday AM. Just one long duration snow event that piles up

Man it’s chilly. 21 with windchill in the lower teens to single digits at times.

Ya but Nam replacement, Rgem and aigfs are in the same camp. It’s not alone.

and i always give up right before

NAM 4 life!

It's the GFS though. Always a tease even as the preponderance of guidance suggests this is an outright miss. Gotta see something from the Euro.

It’s still early in the game. Not a great Happy Hour GFS but there’s still time.

HH Cheers

the RGEM is actually really similar to the AI models... has the main precip with the PVA ahead of the main vort

Snow! Somewhere in the south, but not settled on where. A range of 6” to nothing for many per model guidance. Some solutions snow on the fish in the Atlantic, a few are almost at the Tennessee border. Also, a range of temps from “it will work” to “not a chance.” Much clarity added in the time you’ve been away!

Ai gfs insists for Sunday as well

GFS folding like a towel. Horrible model. The Euro aint perfect but it is Superior. Like @BooneWXsaid, hopefully short range models start picking up on something and lead the way

I'm not quite to where you are yet but I have definitely transitioned from an optimistic outlook on our storms to a pessimistic view. I think the real test of can we get a good rest of winter is does the current 25-28th window pans out. Honestly, we just need it to show a real major storm that gives us precip and develops well, if it ends up being a bit too warm then I think we'll be okay if the pattern persists. Yet, if instead we get some fail to develop nonsense then it is time to probably drop any high or medium-high expectations. Just tired of tracking all these low chance setups that have obvious flaws which make getting snow (or even a storm) unlikely. I enjoyed the December storms because they were just that: a simple snowstorm which even at range wasn't some phase/negative tilt longshot. TLDR: Please for the love of god just have moisture transport into cold air.

Weeklies are great through mid February .

Just over here hugging NAM snow maps and discrediting the Euro as usual. Getting primed up for a let down IMBY

I can’t do it

Ya that’s a big shift from 12z, rgem and rrfs with gfs moving west at least give the AIs some backup

GFS not as impressive this run. Looks like less precip.

All the time man.

I give you props, you always go down with the sinking ship

My concern about Saturday is that temperatures in and around NYC will probably be around 34° during the snowfall. Even a GFS-esque burst of snow could result in a coating rather than several inches at such temperatures. That's why my current thinking is a coating to an inch. If temperatures could be a degree or two cooler, it would be easier for the snow to accumulate.

Good shift west in gfs and AI is solid

Wrong thread this is for the Saturday event

New GFS sucks for us by Lake Norman. No moisture