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GFS Op isn’t done shifting west yet…so those amounts will go up on that model.

GFS track in February would be like 3-4'

I hope we get into a much wetter pattern. We need it although this week has been nice.

Shows no mater how warm or deep the OHC is, eventually it gets "used up" from an intense TC that is moving so slowly!

Too hot, ehh? You're getting old Bob. Join the club. I've been a member only too long.

May of these are estimated. Recon in the EPAC were few and far between prior to 2000. Linda is estimated for instance, but I'd bet good $$ it was near 890 mb. Rick never had a recon. Kenna lowest recon pressure measured was 918 mb but it was not sampled at peak intensity. Recons in the EPAC seem to be dictated by the extent of risk and impact to Mexico and the SW US. One thing w/ recon everywhere is *timing*. We do not always catch TCs art peak intensity (Polo looks like we did), and given how fleeting Cat 5 strength is, it is remains a challenge even today. One case I recall well was Isabel in 2003. It first recon was en route when the HU looked very impressive., but it has to turn back due to mechanical issues. Isabel underwent a quick ERC in the next 24 hr, and the eye almost doubled its size when the recon got there the following day. They found 920 mb / 140 kt. Given how much the pressure rises from empirical obs in a ERC, I bet Isabel was close to 900 mb the previous day! This would have made it the lowest pressure for a tropical Atlantic HU (MDR). NHC did account for this somewhat, calling it 915 mb / 145 kt for a peak intensity that day before in post-season analysis, but good chance it was stronger. Not raining on the parade here, just given some context of the data set. There is often a story behind the data and some caveats!

Funny you should ask. A deer came right by my kitchen windows today. Stayed for three hours and even closed her eyes and fell asleep while I was taking pictures and videos of her. I'd upload a few but I think I'm at my upload limit. I'll try to clear out a few older ones and add them to this post. Edit it let me upload just one right now.

It would seem gfs and smarter gfs don't get along

Mean while, Ai gfs goes east lmao

It was fun while it lasted. This was a great summer.

Equivalent to the 3rd week of March. We are getting there

boat is out - it's over

That's a pretty big shift west, I wouldn't write off significant impacts EOR. Idk about wind though, that typically doesn't materialize away from the immediate coast.

Those 80's are done for the Mountains. We'll need to monitor for the potential of a lot of Gulf moisture streaming in to our Region in early October. Apps runner anyone?

It sounds like you would agree with loop quantum cosmology. I do too. My idea is actually a blend of string theory and loop quantum cosmology. The film projector analog is one I developed when I first read about the Holographic Principle. Picture our universe as actually existing on the inner Cauchy horizon of a black hole in a higher dimensional superverse. Our universe is actually a flat two dimensional universe the third dimension arises from a projection from this black hole boundary into the interior. In a way we're just two dimensional shadows that exist on the inner boundary of this higher dimensional black hole given life and animation by that cosmic film projection. Along the same lines research has shown that time does not actually flow we only perceive it as moving because all items in the universe are quantum entangled with each other. Anything outside this system, outside our universe, would view it as completely frozen in time and place. All current unification theories have black hole cosmology in common and many of them have cyclic black hole cosmology in common. That is a big bounce universe that exists inside a black hole inside a larger superverse. Recent findings that dark energy is variable and now decreasing lend support to this idea. So cosmic expansion is or will cosmically soon start to slow down. Also the reason why the interior of black holes does not agree with our laws of physics is perhaps because all black holes house universes with their own dimensions and laws of physics. Especially spinning Kerr black holes that have two event horizons and ring singularities. To that end it has recently been discovered our own universe is spinning....

That darn September sun angle!

How much did ORH have in the 12/23/97 weenie storm? 16"?

Will the sun angle hold down accumulations?

Yes very MOIST! Then it starts to drift north east eventually at some hour that I'm not even going look at.

Watch 0z GFS hit Bermuda.

Just another dumb piece to the puzzle I don't really feel like dealing with. Lol