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It's dead Jim.

same...wtf

I want to see this in 4 weeks when I know it is here to stay and will only get colder. End of August is waaay too early to get excited. October 90s are a thing you know!

@GaWx Here are the majors (Cat ≥3) that me and someone on Twitter forecasted on DMs, taking into account the LRC and other theories: Erin: 160 mph Cat 5 (over water; EC/Atlantic Canada effects) Major 2: 145–150 mph Cat 4 (TX–LA landfall window ~Sep 16 OR Sep 25) Major 3: 140–145 mph Cat 4 (GA–SC landfall window mid-Oct) Major 4: 115–125 mph Cat 3 (Bermuda grazer/near-miss) Major 5: 115–120 mph Cat 3 (FL Panhandle/Big Bend late Oct) Major 6: 135–140 mph Cat 4 (open-ocean MDR major, recurves)

Gotcha. Looked like your area was getting hit good yesterday on radar...glad you picked up some this am!

All I know for a fact is that Gabrielle will likely go to a weaker storm A 10-day lull in early Sep (since the hurricanes have fucked off to Ibiza again) doesn’t tank ACE when the LRC and numerology show two more Cat 4 corridors still ahead (Gulf mid or late-Sep, SE coast/Atlantic Oct). Erin’s cold wake is a meme, plus the nonce made the SST configs even better anyways. Mixes out fast and doesn’t touch the main landfall lanes. If we get 4–5 backend majors, 190 ACE is totally in reach

You can also be off center a bit and be out in the white stakes a lot quicker too.

what a crummy looking "line" lol

We scored big. First we got .09" this morning and with a shower last hour another .21". I don't know how far that would get into the soil but now I have the sprinklers on. Maybe with a bit of moisture in the topsoil this will help a bit more. By the way 2 of those chestnut seedlings we planted several years ago are doing great.

Record chill possible Wednesday morning at at least 15 sites below From Jeff Berardelli

I just looked at other 12Z ops and there’s actually the same general idea of a LL circ forming just off Africa within 6 days from these 12Z models: Euro, CMC, Icon, JMA, and UKMET. The GFS is about the only major op that has virtually nothing. Hmmmm. 12Z UKMET for example has a TD from right off of Africa moving WSW. When I first saw this on the UKMET, I figured it was likely going to end up as a ghost since I thought it was the only op with it. But then I saw the other models and am now wondering. 12Z UKMET: EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.6N 17.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 31.08.2025 132 17.6N 17.6W 1010 25 1200UTC 31.08.2025 144 17.3N 19.7W 1010 24 0000UTC 01.09.2025 156 17.2N 22.2W 1011 23 1200UTC 01.09.2025 168 16.7N 25.6W 1012 25

You can dub one and get 200 yards with the current state if fairways.

Coc k s drowning.. cackling for air. Wells full for Dendy !

So now we’re screwed for the rest of the week until the next fail front on Friday. The next 2 weeks look .

Been awful dry, Have not mowed in 3 weeks, Lawn is toast.

I usually put down straw to help lock in moisture and protect the seed if the area is big enough. EZ straw works well for small areas, stuff sticks like glue.

83, low dew, wish this was yesterdays weather instead of mostly clouds.

My well is taking hours to fully fill right now after a load of laundry. Give me 3” of rain. Got 0.01” out of this.

What if I told you Dec 2020 band redux awaits?

surgical precision here. what looked like a promising line split in 2 well before showing up here. Typical. i have tons of yard work planned for Friday, but long-ish range forecast is showing ~50% chance of rain here. Based on how this summer has gone, i am not worried about it.

Hopefully the quarter inch+ gives it a little life back.

Yup getting Steined. A little slight shower. Meh. Webbed hands. Can’t believe I’m stressing over yellow and orange pixels, but he has broken me down.

The main issue is how dry it has been. Newark is currently in the upper 80s on a dry downslope flow behind the cold front. It will get cooler again over the next week. Last year Newark only made it to 87° in September. So it hasn’t had two consecutive Septembers not reaching 90° since 2003 and 2004. So when the ridge returns in September, it wouldn’t take much for the warm spots like Newark to reach 90°.

actually I'm halfway in between I-225 and Centennial Airport, where the blue dot is in this radar image from a few weeks ago. In the little finger of D2 drought on the map just SE of Denver. We did pick up another 0.11" early this morning, so that's good.

IDK if the ‘danger’ has passed but we made it up to 89.1 (highest this month) and have since fallen to around 86