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The odds of temps this winter averaging AN are high. Nothing is for certain in wx, so I wouldn't say it's a guarantee, but as close to one as you can probably get all things considered. December will likely suck for snow short of a fluke and, relative to average, will probably be the warmest. Beyond that, anything is possible and I find it notable the fact we have yet to see a toaster oven from any of the seasonals as a positive. If anyone wants to take a position that it's a strong Niño so the glass is cracked and only a few drops are left in it when comes to snow chances, that's up to them. But until I see reasonable consensus among seasonal guidance that a 96/97 or 23/24 is a legit possibility, as opposed to seasonal guidance ain't good enough to see that or some variation of that opinion, I'll remain positive in light of the potential a strong Niño gives for snow in the Mid Atlantic.

I received a welcome 2.04" overnight.

The ECMWF has been the closest but even it’s behind the curve on how east based this has become. The summer WWB pattern was stronger than 1997. So we have the historic warm pool now east of the Dateline.

Just about all guidance has, but especially the CANSIPS and JAMSTEC....take those data with a grain of salt, as I have been advising all summer.

First time turning on the sprinklers since June (hasn’t rained in 72 hours) forgot where the app was on my phone.

I would say not, but perhaps a bit around P Town.

they all look "above normal" now; in the last 10 years more than 75% of the average monthly temps in southern New England have been above normal above normal is the new normal

Cfs2 still advertising the mother of all WWB's this Niño for late October into early November.

Which is why we named the thread what we did .. an endless summer

Drought getting a little serious here. Rivers and ponds are about as low as I can recall and the trees are dropping leaves. This probably is the second driest summer I can remember since moving here in 2013.

That’s not what it’s showing . The point is there’s no coastals or tropical systems or any loaded gulf of America connections with fronts . When you see the whole Eastern 2/3 of the country in a dry , stein look like that , you know it’s going to be dry and boring

It seems that AI has solved Navier-Stokes. Will this have practical implications for forecasting?

Could get quite warm again next week. September looks to be AN overall.

Endless boredom

..and to think millions of people voted for him not just one time but 3 times...that is all you or anyone else needs to know about those people..

And of course in our age of declining news quality....WUSA9 posts a story calling it a "Comet" sheesh

Right on schedule, the northern hemisphere pacific jet is set to seasonally strengthen and the ridging is nearly nonexistent. It’s possible we see the -PDO finally flip by next month. The stronger mid latitude jet and the coastally trapped kelvin waves going up the west coast will both act to flip the PDO to positive.

nah, damaging drought en route. it's showing that your rainfall over the next 1080 (LOL) hours will be ~1" less than normal. how is that "a very dry stein pattern"??

The Des Moines area received massive rain totals overnight. 5.89” and counting at the airport.

Wxrisk.com *ALERT* AUTUMN IS COMING! --1st TRUE COOL BLAST SEPT 18-21 for eastern US details in New Edition of The Next 3 Weeks Newsletter

Well just showing we are heading into a very dry Stein pattern. NW flow in late summer / early fall is typically dry, Steiny, and fronts come thru with almost no moisture. Tonight’s is a great example

There was a bolide/fireball/meteor at 2:38:03am EDT. Check your house cameras if you have them! It was in the southwestern sky with a steep angle. Of course the AMS fireballs page is down due to a cyberattack - but from social media posts, it seems this was seen (so far) from as far away as CT and VA - but likely to be wider). The NASA All-Sky camera site won't update until around 9am but it was BRIGHT. Happened to get lucky being out with the dog for 30 seconds right as it happened. Bright green flash. The actual bolide didn't get onto my cameras but the flash(es) sure did. Wyze cams at my place in Odenton and my folk's place in Colesville both caught the flashes. Looked like transformers exploding behind the trees. Would have been more visible if it had happened after the leaves fell.

MPO has been fairly warm for September so far at +3.3°. The warm minimums are driving the departures there like in other places. The min departure is +4.0° and the max +2.7. You guys have only dropped to 47° by 9-8 which is the 2nd warmest low on record by September 8th. NYC is actually doing a little better than you guys by falling to 61° which is 3rd warmest. So this isn’t a UHI issue since all locations are experiencing warm minimums regardless of rural or urban settings. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Warmest minimum temperature through 9-8 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2018-09-08 48 0 - 2002-09-08 48 0 2 2026-09-08 47 0 - 2015-09-08 47 0 - 2005-09-08 47 0 - 1996-09-08 47 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Warmest minimum temperature by September 8th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015-09-08 63 0 - 1980-09-08 63 0 2 2022-09-08 62 0 - 2020-09-08 62 0 - 2005-09-08 62 0 - 1995-09-08 62 0 3 2026-09-08 61 0 - 2023-09-08 61 0 - 2018-09-08 61 0 - 2016-09-08 61 0 - 2014-09-08 61 0 - 2012-09-08 61 0 - 1996-09-08 61 0 - 1966-09-08 61 0 - 1959-09-08 61 0