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You won't see MJO 8, it's already curling back to COD

In the bigger picture, it's not really a big deal. It happens rarely. I think the other notable one was in August when a lot of models were warm in the long range and it ended up being cool.

Come on what? It's a perfect example that the models are doing poorly with warm forecasts and second, we're all wasting our time with these digital slot machines we call models! Lol

Yep but by then it’s too late. Too late Luther, Too late!

I'm personally not a big fan on long range MJO forecastability. I've seen a lot of times actually over the last 10 years where patterns drastically change when the MJO is projected to go into favorable phases for X.

Come on man.. there is like 1 instance of a ridge leading to a trough in the east coast over the last year, and it's already been posted like 3 times lol. The large scale features held: -epo, +pna. I don't know why it had a big ridge when the Pacific looked like that anyway, but you know long range models hit at about 0.80 correlation accuracy. Especially when 1,000 mile wide features have a strong signal. It's predictable. 2-4 week models are much less predictable, there is a pretty big fall off after 384hr in predictability.

No doubt.

It could look a lot worse. December being in play is a good start.

As evidence of my statement that longer range forecasts haven't done well this year, top pick is last night's EPS forecast for Black Friday 12z and bottom forecast us from 11/15 12z.

Modeling can barely pick up something 12-18 hrs ahead, but we think we have an idea of what 8-10 days out will bring…

^That's a massive +NAO, MJO. With heights over Alaska neutralizing, we are going to go really warm there. These are large scale features that have a big impact on the east coast. Look at how the ridging in Alaska is just about gone in that 360hr map. If we don't hold that, the cold pattern is going to fall.

GFS at hour 384 looks menacing. Start the countdown.

I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking that. Although sometimes because of this board I end up looking too far ahead.

Yesterday vs today This is also phase 8.

It’s really outrageous that some people already should consider taking a break for a few days before Winter even starts. The same posters were very optimistic 2 days ago… A few weather tweets that aren’t epic & suddenly a couple of folks are ready to cliff dive, Lol!

The 0z EPS rolls the cold forward pretty much as one would expect with a WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern evolution. One sees how the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest is the focus of the cold while warmth proves very persistent in the Southeast. 288 hours: 312 Hours: 336 Hours: 360 Hours: The usual caveats concerning skill apply that these timeframes. Moreover, how the stratospheric warming propagates will influence the pattern evolution for the second half of the month.

18z Reggie yesterday was the first piece of guidance that brought rain to the Pike. Everything followed after that

.14". That sucked.

Ok..I guess I stand corrected. Didn’t realize DE was such a snowy place.

Appears that way. But I just casually looked yesterday. Maybe there were some north trends or things we look for winter like deformation areas etc.

.29 in the bucket at my station

I see we're already canceling winter in the long range thread. Couldn't even make it to Thanksgiving.

Looks like the main storm track will stay west of us at least through the Ohio Valley up into Canada through December 5th with quick shots of colder air - progressive pattern with no established cold air YET....Southeast ridge in control as we migrate from MJO phase 6 into 7 and then 8 2nd week of DEC

The question is what period you're discussing. There are conflicting signs the way I see it. Even conflicts with the models' own MJO forecasts and 5H forecasts. In the end, all that be done is to look at modeling and hug whichever one suites one's opinion/gut/biases since everything remains on the table once out 7+ days. But we can't deny the medium and long range forecasts this year of warm, like last year, have not been great. So that along with a weak Niña on its way out the door by year end with noticeable western Pacific cooling, I think the urge to assume warmer LR forecasts are going to verify is risky for now. If they do verify, that will change things in my weenie mind.

Yup. We've really devolved into a winter climate more akin to Georgia or South Carolina.