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Nope, I was just matching the years when you claimed the Philadelphia Airport was having a big heat island effect. I am happy to go further back. I extended my chart back to 1941, the origin of temperature data collection at the Philadelphia airport. The Philadelphia airport matches Coatesville fairly well until the big Coatesville station moves in 1946 and 1947, whose effect is clearly seen. Before the station moves, the Coatesville station was located in a built up section of the City of Coatesville. Roughly as warm as the Philadelphia Airport. Not representative of Chester County. The big heat island effect on this chart is in Chester County not Philadelphia. The reverse heat island due to the Coatesville station move to a more rural location. The West Chester station experienced a similar move to a cooler, less built-up, location in 1970. The 1970s are cool in your chart because of faulty analysis. If you correct for the station moves and other network siting changes over the years, like NOAA does, the 1970s don't stand out as a cool decade. Funny that you complain about heat island effects in Philadelphia but ignore them in Chester County.

It’s basically a WNW to ESE moving system with the low well to the SW. This time of year you don’t have the baroclinic processes to force precip well north and east. We’ll see. Maybe it’s a ribbon of clouds and some showers, but I could see many areas staying dry the further north and east you go.

Yeah, I have read that the ECMWF has been working on that. Use AI to bias correct the NWP OP and ENS model runs. But they say that it takes an enormous amount of computing power. I adjust the models manually after recognizing the biases. A stronger Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic Ridge has been a regular model bias in the East than original forecasts. So systems which initially start out further south and end up more north. So we have to manually adjust for that when doing longer range outlooks. This was the main model bias during February 2025. On the Pacific side the Northern Stream has been verifying much stronger. This has lead to the long range models being too strong with the -EPO. So the ridge in that region usually ends up weaker than originally forecast. This was the case last December when the models missed the record +EPO vortex later in December.

"I am continuing to watch the chance for showers, once again poorly timed for the weekend - along with below average temps. This would make the 13th Saturday in a row across SNE with at least some rain. All the models show that chance for showers. I wouldn’t call it a washout yet…the Euro has an ensemble mean rainfall around 0.25”….the GFS is closer to 0.15”…the Canadian is wettest closer to 0.50”. "

Hopefully stein here and rain Union CT points S and W on Sunday.

Not sure I buy that yet. Looks lame.

There are plenty of examples. But generally speaking going back to the late 70's, progged snowstorms for the MA >24 hours out end up north. So that hasn't changed in all the years I've been following winter wx down here. 3/01 is the quintessential example.

I presume sometime it will, but when is the question.

As long its weak, that isn't a big deal.

Tell me you didn't just use 360 hr snowfall forecasts from operational models to try to prove your point. Please!

There was a system in between the January snowstorm and the February blizzard of 1978 that was suppose dto be snow and ended up being rain.

GFS says GWDLT

Calling for rain Fathers Day weekend. Seems we’re just locked into this pattern.

Certainly looks cool but I don't know where you're getting the washout from?

It does, but will it???

Final total yesterday was 1.00 with 1.42" for the month

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 414 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 PAZ057>059-065-066-100815- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- 414 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy rain are possible this evening into tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

We just can't seem to break this stupid pattern. Looking at the forecast, only two days this week (Wednesday and Thursday) will be nice, then back into the showery weather for Friday through the weekend.

50’s and a washout coming Saturday. Ineedsnow has done it again

HUGE GLOB of rain just piled up inches and inches of fresh rain tallies over north Texas and east. It is going to miss Austin by mere FEET. More frantic middle of the night water rescues in N TX and points east as multiple rounds of efficient rain producers have been pummeling the same areas over and over and over and over again. This has been a BROKEN RECORD since Jan 1 2025. Many waterboarded communities in N TX are fast approaching 30 inches of rain on the year. While Austin begs for rain on its KNEES, crying out for SCRAPS. Yeah, another one bites the dust. This ought to be Austin's theme song for 2025. Because another one just bit the parched dust AGAIN!

62 degrees, .27” of rain yesterday and .06” overnight. Looks like we are under a flood watch the next 2 days, Monday, Tuesday They are saying we could get over 3” of rain in short duration. National Weather Service State College PA 400 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 PAZ006-012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-092000- /O.NEW.KCTP.FA.A.0011.250609T2100Z-250610T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Potter-Northern Clinton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland- Columbia- Including the cities of Trout Run, Lock Haven, Bloomsburg, Coudersport, Mansfield, Shamokin, Laporte, Selinsgrove, Sunbury, Berwick, Williamsport, Renovo, Lewisburg, Wellsboro, and Danville 400 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Columbia, Montour, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Potter, Snyder, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Tioga and Union. * WHEN...From this afternoon through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Heavy rain rates 1-2 inches per hour are possible with training thunderstorms and could result in localized rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches over a short duration. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Steinbugl/JB1

I pulled a small tic off my ankle earlier and man those little ones cling to ya like super glue! It must’ve latched on when I was strolling through a muddy trail yesterday. Wish I took a shot of the sunset earlier too..that damn smoke was thick today. I hope we can clear this crap out for the midweek.

Liberty, as stated, this is actually frightening. As always …..

There aren't many recent storm reports going east of Dallas, as you said. It has finally gotten so late at night it is hitting a stable layer and the downdrafts aren't so bad (maybe.) Well anyway you tend to see the wind reports go away late at night with quite a few situations. Dallas KDAL airport got 1.69" in an hour. Some radar images for Dallas Dallas to Denton may have gotten 2.25" within the last 6 hours.