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The Feb 2018 warm spell that allowed 80° weather in NY was extra crazy because it occurred in an otherwise wall to wall good winter in many places. We did hit 65° here, leading to a rapid melting of a deep snowpack, but outside of the last third of Feb, the period of Nov 2017 to Apr 2018 was pretty much wall to wall cold.

That’s my name for him. He infuriates me. I seriously want to go at him, but I’ll just jab a little for now.

I was just going to post about the same thing. Sad thing is, I follow him only because I laugh at all of his posts and I just didn't want to stop following him for that reason lol. It just amazes me the things he comes up with.... and he's so sure on what he predicts. His record for winter forecasts are even worse. What a goon ( I think one of you guys call him moregarbage.... Which is fitting and I laugh every time I see it )

ineedsnowology

Just what we don’t need, still another batch of moderate to heavy rain moving in at 1PM

Chicago averages more 90s than us, but the last 3 years the difference has been far greater than normal

GFS has JAWS music playing at the end of its run.

The heat ridge/dome seems to sit/max out just to our west, with the major heat staying in the middle of the country. I'd imagine this is most often the case and normal.

Absolutely....they have been too warm all summer.

Really not a good look right now. Hard to believe the downfall and change in outlook on this franchise over the past 12 months

Day 12 of no rain. If it doesn't rain on Tuesday we might be looking at a month straight of no precip after getting close to 5 inches on july 28th. It doesn't get any better. The humidity hasn't been that bad either.

But 12Z CMC, like its recent runs, is significantly further S at 171 (just ENE of PR) with it again much weaker than other models at 1003 mb. It isn’t recurving as it is underneath an extensive H5 ridge: Edit: ends up near Andros I. moving NW toward FL.

I hate when people do that.

12Z UK: still has a TS but delayed vs 0Z and not as far N moving WNW at 168: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 20.5N 51.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 14.08.2025 120 21.1N 53.2W 1011 29 0000UTC 15.08.2025 132 22.3N 56.9W 1011 27 1200UTC 15.08.2025 144 23.4N 59.6W 1009 30 0000UTC 16.08.2025 156 24.7N 62.1W 1008 34 1200UTC 16.08.2025 168 26.0N 64.3W 1006 42

Was 56.5 here, sadly a good bit of haze/smoke in the sky today after the fog burned off.

I clicked his profile...and he even lives in and is from NE PA...that makes this even more ridiculous. He must be a Flyers fan

It's like saying 90F because Tolland only got to 88. I hope that is not a serious post by him and if so, I hope someone is biting back in the comments, I mean that is just ridiculous. But given those forecast temps at AVP...yup there will be lots of 90's around.

Yeah it's up at 1,000ft... it's exactly like using ORH to show regional temperatures. Same game is played in southern New England lol. Here's the ORH temp, only hit 89F, not that hot out.

Where is he “forecasting” for?

All FL needs is another Andrew but 10-20 mi further north and it’s lights out for their insurance and real estate market.

I love how he uses AVP to make that point. AVP is not a spot that hits 90 particularly often (I don't believe). If AVP is into the lower 90's then the hottest locations within the region are into the mid to upper 90's and EWR is probably 100. AVP is our ORH.

Finally something worthwhile to track

I dunno, these setups don't scream good radiational cooling. But I guess if touching like 67-70F at night makes the cut, then yeah, could be worse. Dews could be in the 70s, true. Instead of 65-70F.