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It's not the absolute temperature of the water. It's the atmospheric pattern above it that's been the driver.

It won't be .. and humid doesnt mean hot

Carbon+nitrogen causing greening is good and it works until it doesn't. Burned area including ag stubble and grasslands instead of being broken out into category is also a problem. When you're changing ambient conditions by several degrees over the typical lifetime of a hardwood tree or conifer tree, we should not be surprised when that plant and soil carbon stock becomes unstable vs. realized temps. People generally think of wildfires as the primary component of correcting a landscape towards its equilibrium state and that's certainly an important mechanism (especially if we're doing peat or old growth forest burning), but if anything, the true surprise has been how total ecosystem respiration (TER) has changed in hot-wet environments and how big of a carbon source those regions are.

78/70 still a bit steamy here

How is 55 degree water “overriding El Niño”? I’m sorry I just don’t buy that

Yeah. I was just kidding. Hoping you are well in your new digs

Lol he might be the dude with ham radio username in the Pioneer Valley

82 - Dewpoint: 59 here gorgeous day to dry out.

I'd be willing to bet he was on this forum but packed it in for saner pastures.

If 25 days are humid meaning dews 64 or higher .. does that make it a humid month?

I’d be willing to bet he’s on this forum

Today will be the most pleasant day of the week with low relative humidity and temperatures not too far from normal for early August. Shower chances increase again later tomorrow and additional chances remain for the rest of the work week. No total washouts but plenty of shower chances.

Today will be the most pleasant day of the week with low relative humidity and temperatures not too far from normal for early August. Shower chances increase again later tomorrow and additional chances remain for the rest of the work week. No total washouts but plenty of shower chances.

I enjoy his posts and discussions. Extremely knowledgeable and doesn't try to hype things up...just tells it exactly the way it is.

Yeah, that has been the seasonal PDO pattern during the 2020s. Steep summer decline followed by rebound back closer to neutral during the winter. Most summers the 500mb driving influence for the -PDO has been the ridge to the east of Japan. This July the ridge north of Hawaii had a much greater influence. More like what we saw during a more Niña-like July 2012. While the seasonal models have been missing this pattern since May, a rebound to a more +PNA and -EPO from August on is what they have been forecasting. So at least this element of the forecast may be in the early stages of developing. But we are still getting very strong ridge amplifications off the East Coast and in the Southwest in early August which appears to be the lingering La Niña -PDO 500 mb pattern influence. If even a small amount of-PDO influence at 500 mb continues into the winter, then it could mean a weaker or displaced Aleutian low complex relative to 1997-1998. The exact locations of the low pressure would help determine where the Nino ridge axis focuses over North America. Any -PDO 500 mb influence could result in higher heights located south or potentially east of 1998 which when the main 500 mb ridge was centered south of Hudson Bay.

Average to slightly below just like last month.. how humid it was? The whole month won't be humid.. 10 days doesnt determine a whole month.. just look at July

I think there has been a repeated pattern of the -PDO diving in the warm season with the marine heat wave off Japan through south of Aleutians as a result of the 500mb pattern, and then it abates through the fall and early winter as the NH cools. It will be very interesting to see if the NH atmosphere fully couples with the El Nino once the NH cools, or if the -PDO remains deeply negative. I would not be surprised if the PDO rises to near-neutral levels, but if it doesn't, then we would enter uncharted waters with super nino + super negative PDO. I'm not sure that's ever happened before, at least not at this level.

102 to 53 here in about 26 hours... nice!! Uncommon to see such a big temp drop in the summer.

At least the PNA is trying to match the usual August El Niño expectations. But the other areas still have the lingering -PDO or La Niña influence. So maybe this is the start of the El Niño having of more 500 mb influence on our pattern.

I saw him yesterday jetting over the canal after we only received .25". maybe he took an uber

62 this morning. Beautiful

Dave is not a met, but he is very knowledgeable and a good commnicator. Consistently voted as the best forecaster in WMASS by the Pioneer Valley Advocate and has a large following. Understands the local climatology, topography, and nuances of forecasting in the region well. His focus is WMASS but he extends into SVT,SWNH and NCT. He's not infallible. but I find him very solid.

Completely agree about the PMM. Once we get into met fall and the effects in the NH start to become much more pronounced, I think that’s when we see a big pattern shift along with the change in the PDO. The +IOD just got going at the tail end of July. Once that strengthens throughout the fall and starts constructively interfering/coupling with El Niño, that’s when the big changes in the NH really get going