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GFS is a rainstorm I just checked.

GFS dry. Cmc maybe a shower?

One other note that I’ve seen on recent modeling suggests a more favorable pattern for strengthening with a divergent flow aloft and less dry air. Actually somewhat concerned this could be a strong hurricane now. So much has changed over last couple days

I think as Newman alludes to above it's all about the timing. A faster system will be more of a NC/VA threat, the slowest solutions gets pulled OTS and somewhere in between makes that left hook into SC as it feels the pull of Humberto just a little bit. That is the most delicate balancing act so I agree it is probably the least likely.

Bring it!

Rotating storm in W CT

This is more long range speculation, but I do wonder if there’s a chance of remnants or something if the vorticity gets pushed back OTS after the original landfall. 00z euro and 12z gfs hint at it, but obviously that’s weenie range.

Pouring concrete early next week in Howard County. Hope it doesn't rain too much.

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The trend in the forward motion of 94L is perhaps one of the biggest changes in the past day or so. The GFS went from having it buried in the Bahamas late Sunday/early Monday to being 12 hours away from a Carolinas landfall at that same time. This has certainly helped with the questions regarding interactions between 94L and Humberto. Such a faster 94L eliminates really any fujiwhara conversations. But, we are still within the 4-5 day range where I wouldn't take much off the table yet, other than perhaps a northern Mid-Atlantic and New England hit with such strong confluence present up there

Heading to Ocean City after work today for the musical festival. Glad I am packing a poncho, looks like I’ll get rained on occasionally all weekend

I know I should be thankful that there is no longer a direct threat to us from whatever 94L becomes, but boy was I hoping for it. :/

12z gefs mostly into SC or NC, though haven't seen past hr 108

Excited?

Probably 3-5" between yesterday and today.

Humberto with some deep convection recently. Hurricane status can't be far away.

I was just going to post—no surprise being just over 100 hours out but the GEFS essentially follow the op but with more of a NC threat. Everything is still on the table but I’m not convinced this hooks well into SC. I think that’s an unusual track climatologically speaking.

Not something mountain and foothills folks want to see

Mid 70s Dew point T's some little breaks of sun in the clouds in spots.

Euro is wetter (0.50 - 0.75) than gfs (00z/06z) havent seen the afternoon runs yet.

ICON (trash, I Know) is most wild, gives Bermuda two hits within 48 hours.

Sullivan County Tornado confirmed by someone on ground. Meanwhile back on LI, after a break in the overcast around 930am, quick- 2-minute- downpour just dropped 0.05", bringing total up to 0.74". Would expect to exceed 1 " here.

1" of rain and EF1 TOR's