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Is that with or without the pasty inch on the grass and car tomorrow? Disaster.

Getting any amount of measurable snow here is a win these days.

Yea, better at hour 6.

GFS model comes in further east than 6z. AIGFS is correcting east as well. I think the NWS is really honing in on that this is a positively tilted trough that is pretty much being shunted out to sea. Not enough tilt to the trough to bring this up the coast. usually NWS Upton is pretty bullish with snowfall, but considering they have literally nothing for Sunday gives me pause

Agreed, a shift to that extent is going to be a very difficult task if we don't see some significant improvements by 0z tonight. If I were in eastern areas though I think I might feel a bit better about this because the shifts needed will be much less. It's really hard to go one way or another with this because we have seen some pretty drastic shifts with the handling of that northern stream energy and how it interacts with the southern stream

Right. This is why I said yesterday, people need to let the runs play out at least a little bit before spitting out “ it’s west” you can’t tell shit 8 hours into the model run. There is really nothing worse than people jumping to conclusions and the end result being garbage, again.

I have had like 6" events of 1/4" and 12 events under 3". JUST STOOOOP.

I'd have to go back and look in the thread, but I think we ended up with 25-30" here. Crazy, crazy month.

Meteorological solitary confinement continues baby. And people wonder why more and more are converting to the warm season. This hobby sucks out loud.

It was better but ended up flatter.

The worst winters are super Nino or super Nina. I still think we end up doing ok this winter due to the amount of cold in NA and its ability to get south this winter. We have had many winters which were late bloomers. We have also had several dry La Nina years recently. I think folks in NE TN kind of already know the drill w/ these recent La Nina winters. Mid-state and west Tenn have done decently well with Nina winters. TRI is on the end of the state where everything kind of fizzles out during La Nina winters. Sorry to share our "riches" with the rest of forum this winter! Haha. Again, I think things perk up. Things can change quickly for better or worse!

That particular Event was Feb 21, 2015 the day after the Record Arctic Blast brought a low of -20 in Pennington Gap. Model's all showed precip starting as a brief period of Snow quickly going to Rain(except the Para GFS, it showed 8-9 here ) with less than an inch forecasted . It started here around 1 A.M . With the Temperature in the Teens. Got up around 7 and just over 4 inches had fallen and snowing moderately. I called the NWS and they couldn't believe it as Models were showing Rain. It was raining there. It increased intensity and by 10 over 7" had fallen. I reported that. At this point they were like it should change over soon. It continued heavy until about 4 O'clock. Then started the changeover with Temp in upper 20's. 15" at my place had fallen. 20" just about 2 statute miles north of me near Stone Mountain. There was moderate rain on top of the snow that night that froze within it as the ambient Temperature rose to just above freezing. There were Carports and Porches collapsed from the Weight.

I find when dealing with the cold/dry blues, frozen bay water helps lol. You too are on the frozen bay water lookout crew

23 here currently and solid cloud cover again.... Bit depressing to be honest..

Same ol’ G(FS)

The exhaustion continues. Can the freaking models stop FN with us now?!

Even Reggie trended east a bit. Though it had better dynamics so the rates looked better for us eastern folk.

1.1 inches of snow here overnight, our first inch since mid December.

I agree that for the most part temps are going to be an issue and thats gonna lower amounts quite a bit. Roads should be fine, but with all this model waffling going on we are still over 48 hours out! Storm Cancel?? Maybe not yet. Im hoping for a dusting here at least, but its looking more like nothing. Ive been living here S of ATL for almost 30 years now and I do remember 15-25 years ago it seemed like we would get at least one or two solid events each winter.

It could definitely still trend back west on the next couple cycles, but the problem is the closer you get to the event, the less likely the models are to be wrong and the moves typically get smaller. So if we’re trying to bring it west 100-150 miles in the final 36-48 hours, that’s a tough lift. If we only need maybe half that distance, it’s more realistic.

Watch this be another 100" winter for them.

Yeah except for Reggie meh trends.

It amazes me that we're in 2025 and models can't even be close to each other 2 days out

I worried when I saw it was Wiggum bc he seems to like to try to be the first to report on perceived trends at hour 6, so he can copy and paste the post to his 13 social media accounts

lol the early posts west actually ending up well east from 6z.. always happens