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60%/80% now: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

it's 72 here with warm sun and angel kiss breezes ... he's talking about graupel. ha

Congrats to the usual areas.

This summer is never going to end.

Google seems to be zeroing in on a significant landfall on the Gulf Coast. Still a long lead time though

70 / 51 a great day , partly cloudy - breezy. Allergies must be elevated

Yeah because the hour 300+ gfs represents all of winter.

Was not expecting this wind today. 20+mph gusts here.

There's been a 'year without a summer' ..perhaps more than once. I wonder if there's a year without a winter. Probably there's already been one. Preferential bias just doesn't recognize it... 2012 was close.

12Z UKMET: shifts back east from 0Z run’s far SE LA to MS/AL border track to new track into FL Pan for mid-grade TS followed by NNE and then NNW move in AL: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 22.8N 92.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2026 72 24.0N 91.4W 1002 30 0000UTC 09.10.2026 84 25.2N 89.4W 999 34 1200UTC 09.10.2026 96 26.7N 88.0W 996 44 0000UTC 10.10.2026 108 28.7N 86.9W 995 49 1200UTC 10.10.2026 120 32.1N 86.1W 999 26 0000UTC 11.10.2026 132 34.5N 87.3W 1001 26 1200UTC 11.10.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

I'm expecting both teams to make the playoffs this year

lol - let's see where we are mid-season.

First frozen of the season. Heavy graupel. Completely frozen at home in this core.

On my app (RadarScope) KMOB, KEVX, KEOX, KTLH, and KVAX are all still down

Those 500 anomalies might not be totally H5 ridging. IOW it may be signaling a lack of polar air in Canada which by default will keep heights higher than normal. Those colors don’t tell the whole story, it’s good to have the H5 pattern on top of those pretty colors.

I was surprised to see plenty of past-peak foliage in the Catskills already this weekend, especially around Shandaken and West Kill. There's a lot of great color around though.

Always that 1 storm Maybe Mid atlantic winter this year?

I only see three down? KMOB, KTLH, and KEVX

Cooler air has finally made it to our area. Been in the 60's since this morning with a light chilly breeze out of the north.

I expect it to be warmer than what Euro is showing.

We basically get some showers... maybe half inch from it