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People wont like this, but the most likely outcome is a monster ocean storm that is a close-ish graze. I’m doubtful the majority of the cape gets in it either.

December 13, 2007. The storm I skipped a Final Exam for because as I told the professor “I have to go back to RI to measure snot for the NWS.” and got on the train in North Station because the train was going to just steam by Back Bay and Ruggles since it was already full. I’ll never know what happened to those 100’s and 100’s of people who couldn’t get any train. 13.5” I think. Killer storm. Oh and yet ANOTHER storm with the SAME compact total as Sundays storm that you guys keep calling an “all-timer”.

Way ots

The Euro Ai is less qpf than 06z. For some reason the last two days, 06z/18z runs are wetter, 12z/0z runs are more dry.

Euro AI looks like gfs with the upper low. Looks to be a good run incoming!

Solid signal 4+ days out

Maybe we don't see a NW trend. But something else to note is that the precipitation shield can often be modeled too far south. Look at Jan 2016. IIRC that low passed SE of the benchmark, yet still flung significant precip well inland. Two different storms, but if this winds up being a sub-970 low, there's going to be a large precip shield.

Does SV have the AI too? Didn't realize since we usually see the pretty maps.

The RGEM did the best with this last storm IMO. Really hoping it scores a coup on this one as well.

You know things are getting good when Bernie Rayno actually pays attention to snow chances in the Carolinas and Southern Virginia.

Lived in Plymouth. Stranded for five days. She Who Must Be Obeyed: "I am not spending another winter here." Bought a condo in Florida three weeks later.

I had no idea having every model and ensemble agreeing a storm is coming except like one means the storm is on life support. Jesus man. We have had such terrible winters for half a decade basically. Here we are finally having a decent winter and still so many people just complain and complain. Can’t even come to this site any more since it’s so much bitching and moaning about everything. The world sucks enough, I don’t need that when I’m trying to enjoy one of the few hobbies I still can enjoy.

I tend to trust the AIGFS a little more with precip totals….not just because it’s better for my backyard, but in its short time of existence, it appears to be a little more reliable.

Ai tick SE

Why is it so hard to get a snowstorm when temps are in the teens that doesn’t flip to sleet for the majority of it lol. We’re the most faux snowtown ever.

Surprise

Let's unpack that - low probability there is a biggie present in any form, yes; BUT there is one in the theatre. Rarest of all is for one to form in the first place, but we checked that box. But will the biggie be for the fish to shovel or upright hominids? That question is in the realm of 'normal' probability to ponder.

Delayed at SV. Weird

Euro ai a tick weaker and further south. At odds with the gfs in a pretty big way at this point

1978 Blizzard I had 3 feet of snow on my street. They had to clear the streets with front end pay loaders with a 5 yard bucket. Snow drifts on the house across the street we're 20+ feet high going from the upper roof to the foundation of the house next door. 4 days the street was buried before the clean up started. We've had plenty of big storms since then but anyone who lived through the 78 Blizzard all say the same thing this didn't match that storm.

I woke up to 11 New Pages!! And then see that…… you guys are just reminiscing about old storms and the models went to crap? What the……..

It’s time

Our total offensive yards are there…but our point total is lacking.

The last 4 GFS runs decreased the snow output specifically in Knox Co. The ratioed 8” line moved from I75 east to the Knox/Sevier/Jeff line. Only 10+ miles crow fly but it’s worth mentioning. Not sure if it’s an east jog or just a decrease in QPF. However the AIGFS actually increases the snow over Knox Co. .

Could This be a south fork LI special where east Hampton or MTK get 6-12” and west of say Riverhead sees 1-3?