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The ranges are HUGE as well - there is a BIG difference between 2C and 4C of temperature change up or down. I mean the last glacial maximum was only about 5-6C colder than preindustrial. Using 2025 at the baseline, it was 2C+ cooler just a few hundreds of years ago. So I'm pretty sure we could weather 2C of gradual cooling with no major repercussions. On the other hand, 4C of cooling would no doubt see substantial glacial advances, dropping sea levels, etc, but it's still well within the climate conditions faced by homo sapiens during their time on earth. An additional 2-4C of warming would result in climate conditions not seen on earth in tens of millions of years.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest model trends continue to point toward the potential for several rounds of t-storms over the last weekend of July. An active convective training setup on the northern periphery of the upper ridge may result in repeat or training MCS/MCV storm clusters capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and perhaps carrying a strong to severe t-storm threat. WPC has included the entire area in the D4 MRGL/level 1 excessive rain risk for Saturday. The timing and placement of precip is more uncertain for Sunday with best signal over eastern/northeastern PA.

North of the LIE probably gets to 95 before the seabreeze unless it’s like 20-30mph and all day. South near where you probably gets over 90 but it’s more dependent on when the seabreeze takes over, and with water temps well in the 70s it won’t bring much relief only more humidity.

Haha, I've sometimes called myself a skeptic in that sense (i.e., that it will be worse than let on). Turns out fossil fuel companies have much larger budgets than doomers!

Regarding the poll — Short term 2-4C increase is worse because most of the world’s population already lives in areas that are very warm. This will ultimately cause population flows from these areas. Long term 2-4C is better because it opens up more of the earth’s resources to mining and agriculture.

2047...I actually expected a sooner date....I think Bluewave's model had yesterday.

You can tell that the expected range of outcomes is -4C to 4C…. I find it interesting that the counter- mainstream thought on this subject is that it’s not happening or it’s benign, but never that the warming will be much greater than consensus (2-4C). Moreover, this is the outcome with best odds based on the present trajectory.

That is a grid resolution issue so don’t take those 80s to 90s lines near the coast literally. Most spots like JFK will probably top out in the 90s before the sea breeze kicks in. Could be 20-30 mph southerly gusts by 2-5 pm.

it's not bad, it did clear out for awhile late yesterday (after 4 pm here). I wouldn't say it's mostly cloudy, maybe like 30 percent clouds lol

Cooler this morning than it was yesterday morning.

Double-dip -PDO as the mid-latitude SSTs continue to run near record warm levels.

The models are way too aggressive with the sea breeze, in all my experience here, this does not happen, especially in late July, very similar to how certain models show zero snow on Long Island while it's 2 feet at Newark lol. Just going by local climatology, I'm sure we'll make it to at least the low 90s here before any sea breeze kicks in.

These 11 year record highs should be investigated further, looks like we started having these 11 year peak heat summers beginning in 1933 (so it's 1933, 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010).... I thought 2021 broke the cycle but it looks like 2021 was very similar to 1988 in that the peak heat was inland. The next one will be 2032. It doesn't mean other summers won't be very hot, it just means that the 11 year peak should be hotter than the summers around it.

Omg I'm so sorry. I lost my sister on April 28th so I feel your pain, may he rest in peace and may his memory be a blessing.

I think if you're up very late (or very early) it should be okay. Typically a full moon doesn't mess up a meteor shower much if you're up after 3 am as the moon is lower in the sky and in a different part of the sky (it will be in the west will the meteor shower is in the northeast.) I've only seen the Geminids one time and they were really good, but it was too damn cold and I was only outside for 30 minutes while unpacking my car lol. It's why the Perseids are my favorite meteor shower, all the other ones I like happen when it's too cold to be outside -- so I try to glimpse a few through my windows from the warmth of my house.

Models still on track for 95° to around 100° on Friday away from the shore with severe storms late to cool things down.

Cool mornings, these past few. Low was 57 outside my back door this morning. Felt like September. Looking hot at the end of the week.

I saw a post this morning in the tropical forum that jburns passed on Monday. It was written by his son. Very sad!

I voted warming. You didn't specify the baseline. I answered using today as the baseline with roughly 1.5C warming since 1800. Further warming from here is going to put the climate system way out of equilibrium, tiggering rapid change that would be very difficult to adapt to. Its like pushing a glass of water across the table, the rate of change is tolerable until the edge is reached. Same with climate tipping points: ice sheets, forests, glaciers, permafrost, ocean circulation etc. If you had used pre-industrial as a baseline, I would have picked cooling, but neither option is attractive.

65/64 when I left the house. A solid summer day on tap before we start to bring back the heat and humidity.

Moss is fading. We're getting there.

Get used to it.

Time for another trademark micro heatwave before dropping back into the 70s

It was July 8, 2024.

Wxrisk.com Soednstorpac3m63113l9ga0hh11873ft0830mg2t40c3t297h19ia074t33 · For the first time in weeks it actually doesn't suck to be outside in VA MD DEL WV PA NJ OH NC !!!