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^12z GEFS looks a bit colder for around the 7th. Realistically expectations should be low for snow at that juncture, outside of first flakes in the air kind if thing. Turning colder, yes.

What happened? We went from December-to-remember to canceling winter in 12hrs, best I can tell. This is JB level capitulation.

Cold wetbulbs right off the deck.

If only the weeklies were correct for once in the super long range. Nice look mid to late December.

This says "cold rain" to me outside of the elevated interior. Except maybe if you could squeeze a SWFE in there somewhere. That's not really unseasonable though. And I prefer the GEFS and EPS anyway.

Somebody mentioned this earlier... Was driving home from Annapolis this afternoon and noticed a Japanese cherry that was about half in bloom. Wonder why, not like it's been warm out or anything this fall. Weird.

We received 0'" at our location (Bellvue NW of Fort Collins). Thought we'd at least get something MEASURABLE but nada. So still no precip. in Nov. and 40+ days since any was recorded. Brutal...

Noticeable shift colder today on most models with the exception of the CMC deterministic. The Euro Weeklies have returned to their cold look and serviceable 500 pattern for December. By the second week of December, they begin to push the cold for the rest of that month - equilibrium restored. The Weeklies, contrary to some comments on other forums, had a major change about two days ago. That first week of December has pretty much been warm on those Weeklies for some time. Nobody is upset about that. The thing that was frustrating to see was the Weeklies completely lost the rest of the month of December, especially after nearly 4-5 weeks of cold being shown. The Euro Weeklies have been anything but steady this past week - welcome to shoulder season. I really think the problem was feed back over the Southwest. Now that is being resolved with each passing run, modeling(deterministic and ensembles) is beginning to correlate again with the MJO and LR ext modeling.

There would definitely be a lot of chaotic NS activity with that look, but should a wave take the southern route we could be in a good spot. Verbatim temps are marginal for us. Maybe a few days later would be better. Overall that same look a month later would be more favorable for the MA.

Maybe. The details will/would determine the regional outcome across the sharp gradient I guess. In my experience a ridge through LA, MS, AL, GA, TN, KY usually doesn't work out well except in NNE. To me this looks like a recipe for big snows across maybe the high plains, upper mid-west, or southern Canada. Not much sense in dissecting a 15-day ensemble mean though I guess. At least we're into winter-type "patterns."

WB latest EPS weekly temperature anomalies for December. I will take it!

It’s def not a Kocin cookbook pattern at all. But sometimes our best stretches are when we have to play with fire. Ala those 2007 and 2008 type stretches with lots of battleground between SE ridge and confluence to the north. But if we’re gonna deal with classic La Niña deep -PDO and a -PNA pattern, this is one of the better ones to try and make it work…you have excellent cross polar flow showing up almost the entire run so at least we will have true arctic cold not far away.

Looks like all teleconnections are pretty neutral actually on all guidance especially dec 1-10

Ya pretty similar, hopefully we can squash the SE ridge a bit more to spread the wealth this time.

Yes, Don was mentioning it with evidence to back it up a forecast that shows it latter now.

15 day EPS anomaly charts haven't meant much lately - not sure if they ever really did. But even if we accept it as is, the neg anomalies over SCal and pos anomalies in the Deep South are red flags. This is a common and recent failure mode. Yes, more so for the Mid-Atl than for NE... but I'd still rather be in the Whites or Maine for a "pattern" like that.

Here’s the mid December 2007 stretch that was quite kind to the region. Esp N of pike but even that 12/13 event got your area good. 12/16 hammered pike northward. You can see that big vortex in SE Canada.

I got the Cure for that. It can torch Nino all it wants then NIno to Eternity. All you need is a place called Mammoth Mountain Ski Resort or the Canadien Rockies at 16,000 feet in January. It would be -20 Fahrenheit, 175 mph winds and blinding snow and the skiing's great in the Canadien Rockies, real pow snow and no melting for 11.9 months out of the year. No one has to put up with global warming no longer, It will never be too warm for snow and winter in the Sierra, the Cascades or the Canadien Rockies or especially the Brooks Range in Alaska. You go high enough in the Rockies snow NEVER melts. I'm crazy as all hell but I still want an all-out Ice Age, with snow 13,000 feet deep, 100 mph winds and -100 degree cold. I am no better than I was in high school. The school board kicked my sorry ass out of Gar Field High in 1981. I just would not stop taking weather readings in class or drawing cross sections of cold fronts displacing hot air and changing rain to torrential snow. I am sick to death of summer in November in Texas. I am back to wishing for an all-out AMOC Shutdown and the return of an Ice Age Earth. We can always live in the deep underground military bases if need be. We can defeat the hybrid creatures that live in the deeper levels 4 miles down, They have a Mach 2 maglev transport system under there and it is global. I demand: snow 13,000 feet deep, minus 100 degree high temps, and constant blasting by severe gales and 200 story drifts in a milkshake-like environment. This was the way I expressed myslef in high school and it is no surprise I finally got my ass kicked right out of the public school system, in 1981 when I was in 11th Grade. They'd had enough. Well, I have had enough of summer in November. It'll be summer in Texas the next three months. I'm fed up. I want extreme cold deep ice and snow and watch everyone fall down and bust their tailbone! All while I happily blast Ken Carson at 200 decibels! This has been a classic Jebman Presentation, 2025 I'm Tired of Summer Edition. Carry on.

+AO?

Very nice theirs some chatter over on the other side of this forum about a robust positive AO we shall see.

No, definitely don’t need it verbatim there, I was just thinking the NAO would help kind of pin that vortex more in Canada after a certain amount of time. Just to give it more staying power that’s all. I feel like the Pacific might relax a little bit over time.

It's always interesting when the CFS monthly is out of sync with the weekly version of itself. December looks much better on the weeklies than the monthly one that @40/70 Benchmark showed. Euro weekly backs it up. Never confident in these long term models but it's nice to see the signal getting better as we get closer to December rather than the other way around. Hopefully it's not hallucinating.

I know this is from SNE... but would this be good for us in future days after? Or is this a gradient pattern that sucks for us? Today's 12z EPS at the very end btw

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-13-2007 https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-16-2007

Most of the time it does sometimes it doesn't but most of the time it does.The AO is fluctuating now but doesn't mean it's going to take stay positive.