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Considering NWS has me in 18-24” “could get a foot” seems reasonable. I’d go 8-12 for my area no idea what NWS is smoking.

Big improvement on the 00z euro. Hope we see improvements all around today

Live, Laugh, Toaster Bath. .

Looking at the euro runs for 18z and 0z I’m thinking DC and surrounding areas get the floor, Baltimore and surrounding areas get the ceiling. So I think your area could get more than a foot.

Please go back to lurking....what did you add here?

Warnings coming with the new AM AFD based on the AFD from 1am. Going with front bump SN to sleet . 1-3” sleet to FR. Ready to track the realtime surface features. .

0z eps and 6zgefs both increased the 10% snowfall quite a bit across the area indicating the chances for a low end bust went down. The 10% snowfall on the EPS is still around 6” in DC and 9” up here. That’s a pretty decent “floor”. GEFS is significantly better of course but it also increases the floor.

I was thinking the same. This reminds me of a few storms from the early 2000s. Models 72 hours out showed us getting crushed, ended up with about 4-8 with sleet.

Today's 3:33 AM Winter Storm Watch text now has an 8-15" storm total for the region. That's a lot of bumping down totals in a pretty short time frame, compared to that first snowfall map that came out at 1am that showed a bunch of the south shore at 18-24".

The last time I remember a SWFE type storm was in winter 2000. I remember it because the commute from Farmington to Simsbury was near impossible in my shitconoline van. Was supposed to be a couple inches and between 11 am and 4 pm we had near 10 inches. I don't remember if there was coastal development with that one, but I don't believe so. This has so much potential, hopefully we cash in

Fingers crossed Baltimore is still within striking distance of the ceiling.

Busy times ahead!

Yep. This is the kind of storm I've often seen when I was a kid. PA gets the most snow while we mix. I was jealous of State College then. But they've had a terrible, terrible run at snowfall in recent years. Like, worse than us.

We knew that would likely show up at some point. NAM... see you at 12Z

These amounts seem more likely than the map they had earlier.

That’s climo.

ABC27 going on the lower side while my NWS is 15-22 snow

Yeah I’d feel good with 12-18 forecast but not good about brushing 18”+ over anyone. I do think the south shore and Cape Ann have a pretty decent shot though with the extra OES enhancement. Still uncertain about how efficient monday is….on one hand, we’re synoptically dryslotted, but OTOH, you are literally in the DGZ sfc-700mb so it might not matter that much if you can generate some steady light precip…you could stack another 4-6” with maybe a quarter inch of QPF.

I had almost 10" of cold smoke last January. No mix, no drama. Just a beautiful snow followed by cold. I'm just frustrated as always watching pa get crushed by our storm lol

As someone who works overnight the hardest part about this storm may be how to not miss the morning/afternoon show lol.

How do they come up with these maps? I ask because how it has that tear drop of 12" over Dover Delaware. I've never seen that before.

probably why ALY took totals down a bit here, and I'm still sticking with 10-14 here anyway, we'll see how the next 24 hours look model wise, but no closed low has me concerned about long duration and CCB type snow of any real accum..

That may be, but your backyard is still well within the 8-10” range before a flip. Of course that could still change, but you haven’t received that much in a single storm in 10 years.

Now the GFS gives southern Louisiana across Mobile, and all of the Florida panhandle 8-12 inches of snow with 0 warm nose issues 150 miles north of the low. Yet here we see 850s shoot to 50 degrees with a low 1000 miles south of us. It finishes off with a band of ocean effect snow that sends 2-4 inches from Tampa Bay down towards south Central Florida. While this clearly shows that the GFS probably needs to be decommissioned and a new model launched in its place, I wouldn't be shocked if it came true.