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“Mostly sunny”. Ill just pretend its not effin pouring on me in suffern right now.

There is some validity to that, but it's more useful during cool ENSO. There probably is some statistical connection between very inactive hurricane seasons and poor subsequent winters due to super El Nino.

There will undoubtedly be less MC influence this season relative to 2016.

You don't think +EPO has been historically favored during super El Nino with a huge GOA low?? The seasonal mean will be +EPO, but I think we can have some fleeting periods of cross polar flow.

Low of 39 here in the north this morning. Looks like a terrific day ahead.

I think your thought process is intentionally linear here.....you know damn well how chaotic snowfall is and the bar that year is pretty damn low...I'll take the over.

I did some scarifying and overseeding over Labor Day weekend too, and seeing the same here.

The logic used to be a busier hurricane season favors blocking in the winter. Although that was kind of old school thinking, not sure if that is applicable now.

Eh...I see what you're saying, but ENSO doesn't operate in a vacuum. I get the sample size limitation, but we also need to consider that 3/4 Super El Ninos have occurred during the descending portion of the solar cycle, which is pretty hostile towards sustained high latitude blocking. I don't think that connection between descending solar and super El Nino is a coincidence, either.

1.61" overnight. Tropical out there this morning.

Usually the crickets slow down when it's chilly! On warm nights, they are roaring. My low yesterday was 54 (lowest IMBY since June 9) and this morning was 57. Am enjoying the dps in the 50s for a change. Currently 59 with dp 57.

Was Liam at the end of it?

I feel like Allison would rather not find out....

No need to worry, all we need is someone smart in charge

Shocker.... He favors blocking every season if you go back and read through his stuff. He keeps touting super El Nino as being very disruptive to the PV, but neglects the fact that we are 0-4 in triggering a SSW during a super El Nino. He likes to cherry pick data to suit his agenda...what he doesn't mention is that the portion of the solar cycle (descending) that predisposes the Pacific basin to super El Nino is very hostile to the development of sustained high latitude blocking. He harped on the sea ice pattern over the summer as a factor in the argument for blocking this winter, but failed to mention that it only has predictive value during the easterly phase of the QBO. Needless to say, I'm about as much of a fan of his work as he is of objectivity. That said, they do make for interesting reads and he has some cool graphics.

You wonder if these temps last through January.

fine by me, people need to be reminded that bad consequences result from poor decisions

lawn kicking back into high gear with the cooler weather !

Wxrisk.com 9 hours ago · ** ALERT ** 1ST POSSIBLE Coastal LOW of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS Cold air Blast SEPT 26-28

It looks like next week will be another one of those "heavy rain threats". I actually hope it fails. My business has a packed schedule and it all needs to get done by Dec 1.

53 this morning.

Not happening. But I think they made a discord to all fight together on.