All Activity

We’re getting pounded up here. Everybody be safe.

There could be a flash flooding risk in the Milwaukee area Thurs night into fri morning. Train going to be riding that stationary front. Milwaukee doesn’t do well with these events

How funny would it be if we average +PNA in the seasonal mean, stemming from similarities in the arctic domain and not necessarily the equator. Just about everyone would miss it, assuming it's ENSO.

Some historical cases where RI cycle/markedly improved upper-level outflow at and after landfall. Andrew Aug 1992 S FL Andrew was undergoing RI at at landfall, and the eye was actually 1 C warmer 1 hr after landfall. I recall the last recon pressure was 932 mb, and they estimated 926 mb for landfall, but readings on land n the eye found 922 mb in post-storm analysis. Charley Aug 2004 SW FL Charley was undergoing RI those last 12 hours up until landfall as upper-level outflow was improving due to favorable trough interaction upon recurvature. A very compact hurricane that maintained its inner core w/ usually high winds well inland all the way to MCO (G108mph there). Fay Aug 2008 SW FL Fay was a disorganized TS at landfall, but in the next 6 hours, satellite presentation improved big time, and eye formed on sat/radar, and its symmetry was outstanding (on the VIS image link below, it even developed a subsidence ring around its CDO, which is a telltale sign of strong TC on sat). It was the only time I have seen NHC increase the winds for a TC significantly inland (60 to 65 mph - winds over Lake Okeechobee). https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/50/Fay_19_aug_2008_1615Z_Cropped.jpg/960px-Fay_19_aug_2008_1615Z_Cropped.jpg?utm_source=en.wikipedia.org&utm_campaign=imageinfo&utm_content=thumbnail http://ultimatechase.com/chase_accounts/Images/Tropical_Storm_Fay/RAD_KMLB_N0R_ANI.gif Harvey Aug 2017 TX Harvey was undergoing RI those last 12 hr to landfall, and the eye remains intact very well some distance inland. Look at this EIR loop of Harvey, Very strong, practically ideal, upper-level outflow develops not long before and after landfall as evidenced by the large anticyclone cirrus plume. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qjhW6lxkws These are just some examples. There are many others.

But we have Lowell and HI for it all to focus on now. Let the games (hysterics) begin!

There is another effect overlooked here, actually two. 1) I would argue there is a "tropical landscape effect," meaning lowlands/swamps/marshes and a general tropical marine air mass that is not far inland provides at least neutral moisture/latent heat to keep things going better or maintain than say and area that is not like that, but not a desert either (brown ocean effect). 2) Look at the mid-level WV loop for the past 3 days. One, you have a trough nearly stationary over NE Mexico. Two, watch what happens over the FL PH. An upper low cuts off and deepens. Now look at the 250 mb analysis. I attached the 03/00z ECMWF fcst 03 hr 250 mb. Edouard moved directly under a large upper level ridge center. Note that a small cyclonic center is right over Edouard's center, but that is ok b/c TCs often has a tiny cyclonic low even at this level. So upper level conditions became nearly ideal aloft for outflow given two upper troughs either side of the TC, and a upper level ridge directly over it. This can and does result in intensification at times, at least the mid-level circulation and for satellite presentation, for a TC moving inland. Recall before Edouard's landfall, there was some shear evident, and the convection was pulsing in blobs. At 1230z on landfall day, after struggling a bit satellite, a big blow up of convection occurred directly over the center, and radiated out uniformly, which is a solid sign of intensification, and often this is due to an improvement of the overall environment, In this case, the small amount of shear likely lessened, and that resulted in less dry air being pushed into the core, so Edouard "made its move," so to speak. And once inland, continued improvement aloft and the dry slots on radar vanished, and we got a solid/coherent precip swirl area, as tiny as it was! Overall radar presentation improved *after* landfall! So the brown ocean effect, or the "tropical landscape effect," does not tell the entire story I think. When upper level conditions improve markedly at and after landfall, this positive offset can intensifies the TC, or slow weakening. In Edouard's case, since it was a mdt TS at landfall, it has not much to "lose," so to speak, say compared to a Cat 3 landfall. Yes, sfc winds will come down regardless b/c of friction, but system itself structurally improves quite a bit, and I think this is what happened to Edouard. I'll give some actual historical examples in the next post.

Live stream from my truck

That was on me for not paying attention to the height lines Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Documentary about the 1938 hurricane

looks like we'll have fall weather maybe by November lol

WHERE IS OKLAHOMA

Nats lose. O's lose. Commanders look like shit. Guess we'll see about the Ravens. Hey - how bout the Wizards this year! lol - I actually think it's going to be a fun year. Can the Caps should be pretty solid.

Radar is lit up

1954 is the hottest start to a September we've ever had. 4 of the 6 hottest September days ever recorded in Knoxville happened in the first 10 days of 1954, all of them were over 100 degrees. 15 days of the month were 90+ and 4 were 100+. October saw a mix of warm and cold but it snowed on Halloween. Winter was BN Dec, BN Jan, AN Feb.

Looks like 9/2 is ~+0.40... should come in ~-0.10 for MJJAS. That would actually be our 2nd lowest NAO Winter in 14 years (CPC). I'll take the over on that (CPC), although there could be some ridging around 80-90N.

You can see that NF cold pool go bye-bye, as I was expecting earlier this summer.

30 Day change:

August should be out early next week.

Terrible

August isn't quite out yet...May-July: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

Those Detroit storms literally just popped up out of nowhere. Turning into a Flash Food situation even (not necessarily a bad thing with how dry that area's been).