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Yea that doesn’t really apply further south. Mainly for central CT. I’m highly confident that most on here see a nice 3-6” snowfall.

Its one of those storms where parts of Monmouth and li will do better than western nj where they'll mix sooner

NYC in trouble

From NE forum. Great explanation on bandingeven though for up here.

LHV should do very well

We can potentially close December with 25”+ up this way. Can’t remember the last time that happened

The Poconos might be decent Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

24 hours to first flakes for some on here and the American mesos all over the place. NYC northwest, north and northeast in line for a solid snowstorm. South of nyc is on the bubble. Probably a sleet storm up to Monmouth after some snow. I think the city and points north and east stay all snow

Merry Christmas! another white Christmas on this side of the county. 8-12” coming Friday night. Can’t remember the last time we had a December like this

NAM bufkit is out! So far looked at a couple locations (Waterbury and New Haven with New Haven shown below). Beautiful crosshair signature for a good 3 hours. But note...the duration of the snow, particularly the heaviest snow is going to be short lived. This is something that is going to cut back on the upper ceiling with this. It could really be difficult to pull off more than 6-7" but there are many factors to consider here. NAM bufkit even looks solid through Hartford. But it should be stressed that this is solely tied into the banding...meaning if you are not under the banding, its probably going to suck and may be difficult to accumulate more than a few inches (though most should be happy with that).

I’m more worried about QPF more than the temperature profile for my area. It’s a very thin band of heavier precip on almost all models - and rates will play a factor with marginal temps. 3-6” is my final call for MBY and much of the NYC metro.

I'm at 7.2" so double digits in December would be awesome. Central Park should still pull 4-5 but we'll see how things trend over the next few cycles.

That's why it's a watch. You put them out 48 hours in advance when 6+ looks likely. Which it did. There's no reason it can't be adjusted to an advisory.

that would be ok imho. my experience is the pinging starts too soon, it's rare to get a lot before it happens; but we do see it at times.

66,69,80,83,2002 and 2010.great memories!!

Are you that lone purple circle?

Crazy swings

I was thinking about driving up to Middletown NY or Poughkeepsie area. Looks like that could be jackpot area. New York City is looking dicey on thermals. .

bingo. it was too early for that. but local jersey forecast this morning was, on media, 2-4 of snow sleet and even rain....no idea how good that is, and they change a lot.

Yeah, it’s unlikely, but I don’t think an advisory event is dead here yet

As expected the dividing line has edged from Philly to Trenton to now near somerville. That sleet line will almost always make it to 78. It will come down to front end thump and if we can manage 4 to 5 before the pinging. Even 3 gets me to double digits for the winter so I'd be happy

My problem with Forky is not his skill but his communication. Why cant he just state what he thinks is going to happen. Will Brooklyn see 2 inches before a lot of sleet? Will the bronx be mostly snow with CPK in 4 inches before the change? Just stating "NAM sniffs out warm layer" and "you will get a lot of sleet" to MJO is not that helpful. Don does a great Job in articulating his thoughts. Wish Forky would do the same.

so why did the powers that be start with all the watches two days in advance? to sell shovels? this storm is getting away from us. will keep an eye out, no idea if that model is any good, but even early this morning i sensed a hummina hummina from mt holly.....no idea what will happen, but seems to be the usual suspects here on one side or the other. will wait for consensus....which will come down to, wait for it....nowcasting! everyone enjoy the holiday.

MERRY CHRISTMAS to everyone............... I'm happy because I received .21" rain early this morning. Was supposed to be less than .10" Gotta run to celebrate with friends and family the rest of the day........ A whole lotta calories.

We are debating taking the train to nyc in the am for the weekend to enjoy snow.