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December 2021 had that big MJO 6-7 standing wave with drove the strong -PNA and the +13 around DFW. The most impressive 500 mb high latitude blocks over the last decade have been over the Kara and Barents seas areas. Could be some degree of feedback with the record low Arctic sea ice in that area.

I don't blame any TV or social media met for going average/above average in temps for winter. Since 2016, we've been stuck in a long term cycle of above normal temps during winter. Last year was the first real exception.

Yes. Fast start, then typically a collapse of winter. That may be the baseline for this coming winter where things get off to a good start and then winter ends prematurely.

I've been wating with baited breath for a 1917 redux ever since the Titanic sank.

I don't, either. My mind has been made up for months, but as in mathamtics, time to show the work.

I have no issue with that...totally reasonable take.

31 and frosty this morning!

I agree with probably 95% of your thoughts on this winter…however, I do part ways on the PNA. I think it’s going to be significantly more negative than you are thinking….no, not 2022-23 negative obviously, but yea

I have already asked Santa for some pro winter posts from @snowman19for Christmas....he has his work cut out for him.

Yea, I think most would sign for wintry holiday period, regardless of what was in the fine print of the deal with the devil.

There is definitely some warmer risk mid season...no doubt.

Lets just worry about that in January if that happens.

Well, I am going to Florida 12/13 - 12/20. So something big is nearly assured in that time frame.

The BOM model takes it weakly into phase 7 before it dies out

Classic October November tornado season on the south coast lol

Low of 30 degrees this morning. Heavy frost again. Temperatures around me is varying this morning. Montourville 42 degrees, Williamsport 36 degrees.

HRR definitely had that look, but I don’t think nobody really care.

I guess some people just looked at the -AO/-NAO part of Eric’s post and looked no further. He has some real ugly analog years in there….1988, 1999, 2011…. See:

Snowing up at First Lake. 33F at the COOP.

.11" from the front last night, 46F, highest gust so far 21mph....meh

Lactose issues?

The interesting thing is that JB's analogs show a warm December and a cold last 1/3 of winter. The CFSv2, which changes daily, shows the same thing this morning and has waffled between a cold Dec and Feb since I posted the above. I lean towards a cold start to December, but how long that cold lasts in December is up for grabs. The Euro weeklies, if they can be trusted during shoulder season, show a retrograding PNA/EPO ridge which (by the end of the run) is trying to get into the Aleutians. Looks like we have a window of about 1-2 weeks to start winter, and then TBD.

Good for those that got some action…just a little light rain here last night, but I’m fine with that…all drying up now, and can keep the truck clean for a while longer.

Low of 46. Solid days ahead.

Yeah no one had or mentioned chances of thunder, hail, win damage or Tors. No one no model